In Montana, a folksy farmer and Trump provocateur battles for third term
| Bozeman, Mont.
A rare breed of voter lives under Montana鈥檚 big sky, where the sun sets over jagged mountain ridges and illuminates swaths of freshly cut wheat in alternating shades of gold.
This is a state where voters propelled President Trump to a 20-point victory in 2016 and, on the same ballot, elected a Democrat governor. Where almost everyone seems to have a close relative with diametrically opposed political views 鈥� and yet many a bipartisan family has found a way to coexist. Where diner talk ranges from close encounters with grizzlies to how to save America鈥檚 democracy.
So it鈥檚 not surprising that one of the fiercest battles for control of Congress this fall is being waged here in Montana. Though the sparsely populated state has fewer registered voters than many major cities, outside groups have already poured听听into the race 鈥� and are likely to increase their spending in weeks to come.听
Why We Wrote This
In an age of extraordinary divisiveness, a tight Senate battle in pro-Trump Montana is testing whether moderate Democrats like Sen. Jon Tester 鈥� who has been willing to cross the president 鈥� can win.
At stake is not only which party will get the upper hand in the Senate, but also whether the forces of partisan polarization sweeping the United States will trump Montana鈥檚 uniquely thoughtful brand of politics.
On paper, this race is between two-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), a burly farmer who lost three fingers as a 9-year-old while helping his family butcher their Montana-raised beef, and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale, a Maryland developer who bought a ranch here in 2002 and served three terms in the state legislature before becoming state auditor.
But in many ways the race, like so many this cycle, is also about President Trump 鈥� his personal quest to prove that his 2016 win was no fluke, and that his popularity among GOP supporters can surmount a highly energized Democratic base and translate to听down-ballot success. Mr. Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, and Donald Trump, Jr., have each visited the state twice, hosting massive rallies to fire up the Republican base.
鈥淵ou have to realize that Donald Trump is on the ticket in six weeks,鈥� the president鈥檚 eldest son told a crowd at a Sept. 25 rally in Bozeman, warning against complacency after his father鈥檚 resounding win in the state two years ago. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to take a two-year hiatus where nothing gets done ... because we were sitting at home, fat and happy, saying, 鈥楴o, we鈥檝e got everything we want, this is great.鈥� 鈥�
While Senator Tester held a lead in polls throughout the year, boosted in part by the disproportionate energy and enthusiasm of Democratic voters,听the race has tightened dramatically in the final stretch. This week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report听听for Montana Senate听from 鈥渓ean Democratic鈥� to 鈥渢oss-up.鈥澨�
Experts say it was always likely to be close. Tester, who won his two previous elections by no more than a few points, is hardly liberal by Democratic Party standards. But he has carved out positions that are to the left of many other Democratic senators fighting for reelection in red states听鈥� and he has been more outspoken against the president.听
In these final weeks, the high-stakes battle over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and the sexual assault allegations against him also appear to have shifted the dynamics, by galvanizing conservative voters.
Mr. Rosendale鈥檚 campaign says that in the past week, the No. 1 issue voters have raised is the Kavanaugh confirmation proceedings and what they see as a liberal smear against Trump's nominee 鈥� a theme the campaign hammers home in听. Tester announced last week that, after doing his research, he had come to the conclusion that Judge Kavanaugh would not be good for Montanans, citing concerns about his record on privacy and campaign finance, as well as the allegations of sexual assault.
听 听
鈥淚f things have become so polarized that folks are unwilling to look at facts in an objective fashion, that鈥檚 definitely harmful to Tester,鈥� says听David Parker, a professor of political science at Montana State University听and author of听.
If Tester loses his seat 鈥� and, more broadly, if Trump and the GOP overcome historic midterm trends to maintain or even increase their margin in the Senate 鈥� that would have enormous implications about the staying power of Trumpism as a significant force in politics, he adds.听
鈥淚 think this race matters a lot,鈥� Professor Parker says, as a test of听鈥渨hether or not Trump is indeed changing politics as we know it, whether or not he truly has captured and tapped into building a new Republican coalition that is potentially enduring.鈥�
Poking the hornet鈥檚 nest
Tester, who goes back to Montana to tend to his farm on weekends 鈥� and brings the meat he raises back to Washington with him 鈥� portrays himself as a salt-of-the-earth politician who votes with Trump when it鈥檚 good for Montanans and holds him accountable when needed.
As the ranking Democrat on the Senate Committee of Veterans Affairs, he torpedoed Trump鈥檚 pick to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, former White House physician Ronny Jackson. In airing anonymous allegations from听nearly听two听dozen听current and听former colleagues of the doctor, Tester, along with other Democrats, painted Dr. Jackson as unethical, temperamental, and unfit to lead the second-largest government agency.
He may have poked the hornet鈥檚 nest one too many times, to his own detriment, but he鈥檚 unapologetic.
鈥淭he people elected me to do my job,鈥� he says in an interview. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 how I鈥檓 wired.鈥澨�
National polls have shown Rosendale pulling even with Tester in recent weeks, despite Tester听raising听听so far. Across the state, Tester鈥檚 small blue and orange campaign signs proliferate like mushrooms in the liberal urban centers, while Rosendale鈥檚 large navy signs can be seen miles apart on an occasional hillside or weathered fence spanning Montana鈥檚 sweeping plains.听
鈥淭o be a Democrat in Montana and win a statewide election is hard,鈥� says Parker. 鈥淵ou've gotta have a special sauce.鈥�
Crucial to a Tester victory will be the vote of young people, who are disproportionately liberal but tend to听听than older voters.听听
At a recent Friday afternoon rally at Montana State University, Tester eschewed the podium altogether, propping a leg up on a chair in the front row, and chatting with several dozen students about why this election was vital for their generation. Not only did Congress鈥檚 recent tax bill, which he opposed, saddle their generation with an even larger federal debt 鈥� they also have debts of their own from getting an education.
鈥淗ow much student debt are you going to leave here with? Let鈥檚 say $30,000 鈥� am I too low?鈥� he asks.
Heads nod.听
鈥�$40,000? $50,000?鈥� he offers.
鈥淢ore like $60,000,鈥� someone says. Would he, like Bernie Sanders, support free tuition?
鈥淚 think you need some skin in the game,鈥� he answers, 鈥渂ecause if you have skin in the game, you鈥檙e more inclined to stick with it. But $60,000 bucks is way too much.鈥�
Widely considered likable and down-to-earth, Tester may be more conservative than many young people. But given the alternative, those who vote are likely to go with him.
鈥淎t this point, I just think it鈥檚 so important to take control of the House and Senate,鈥� says Kevin Bell, who was a self-described ski bum until 2015, when he got energized by Bernie Sanders鈥� campaign and went back to school. Though the MSU political science major says he鈥檚 an anti-establishment Democrat, the stakes are too high this year not to support Tester.
鈥淚 want to do whatever it takes to stop the Trump agenda,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ormally Montana isn鈥檛 that important ... but if they want to have the Senate, they need this seat.鈥澨�
The Kavanaugh factor
Control of the Senate has taken on even greater significance since Kavanaugh became embroiled in an escalating series of sexual harassment allegations. Republicans are on the brink of achieving a听听conservative goal to secure a majority on the nation鈥檚 highest court. But the bitterness on both sides over how this process has unfolded suggests future nominees could face a difficult if not impossible path to confirmation if the president鈥檚 party doesn鈥檛 hold a Senate majority.听
鈥淭here is nothing that is more important than the role that a US senator has in confirming or denying 鈥撎�or denying 鈥�听[nominations] to the Supreme Court,鈥� Rosendale says at a rally in Bozeman, repeating the word for emphasis. He sends grumbles through the crowd when he reminds them that Tester supported Obama nominee Sonia Sotomayor, who said that owning a gun is not a fundamental right.
Rosendale is known for being fervent, even intense, in his convictions.听
Critics suggest he isn鈥檛听a real rancher or a real Montanan 鈥� and is little more than a puppet of Trump. But long before the billionaire New Yorker took American politics by storm, Rosendale was working for conservative causes in the Montana state legislature, where his fellow Republicans听elected him majority leader of the Senate.听
A key issue for him is health care. Rosendale advocates repealing the Affordable Care Act 鈥� under which Montana鈥檚 premiums have increased by double digits annually for the past few years 鈥� and replacing it with more affordable options. As a state senator, he supported a bill to allow direct primary care agreements, which give individuals access to basic care by paying a doctor of their choice as little as $70 per month. Though that bill and a subsequent one were vetoed by Montana鈥檚 Democratic governor, Rosendale authorized such services after becoming state auditor.
鈥淵ou don鈥檛 have that level of success without delivering results and serving the will of the people,鈥� says campaign spokesman Shane Scanlon. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what his record shows, and that鈥檚 what he wants to do in Washington.鈥�
Still, few Rosendale supporters at the Bozeman rally could point to substantive policy achievements 鈥� instead highlighting broader character traits, describing him as a man of integrity, a 海角大神 who is pro-Constitution and pro-family values.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 he going to push? What鈥檚 his passion? I don鈥檛 know yet,鈥� says Tom Rossetto, a former coal executive, who says he supports any Republican. 鈥淭he proof is in the pudding 鈥� when they get up there [to Washington].鈥�
As for Tester鈥檚 track record in the nation鈥檚 capital, he听was rated last year by the Center for Effective Lawmaking as the 4th 听most effective Democratic senator, based on the number of bills sponsored, how far they progressed, and how important they were. That success comes in part from his bipartisanship 鈥� a fact he highlighted in a听听that touted his support for 13 bills that Trump signed.听
That total has since increased to 20. Of those, a dozen were bills designed to help veterans 鈥� from improving access to education and health care, to making it easier to fire bad employees at the Department of Veterans Affairs.
He and his supporters count them off until Tester gets to eight and holds up both of his beefy hands.
鈥淚鈥檓 out of fingers,鈥� he says with a smile, 鈥渂ut I鈥檓 not done getting things done for Montanans.鈥�
