海角大神

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster is about to lose his White House job. Except he鈥檚 not 鈥� or at least, he鈥檚 not getting booted yet. It鈥檚 Chief of Staff John Kelly who is on the way out, perhaps as soon as today.

Scratch that. Kelly and President Trump apparently have reached an understanding; he鈥檒l stay for now. It鈥檚 cabinet secretaries such as Ben Carson of HUD and Scott Pruitt at EPA who are endangered. They鈥檒l be first to go. Just as soon as that McMaster situation gets resolved.聽

As Mr. Trump heads into his second year in office, widespread and conflicting reports about upheaval among top White House and executive branch staff have created an air of turmoil and uncertainty in Washington as important decisions on tariffs, North Korea, and other big issues loom ahead.

Perhaps this is just as Trump wants it. It is a dramatic situation, as if the Oval Office were the center of a reality television competition. The multiple reports, from the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and others, depict alternate staffing scenarios, as if different and competing White House factions are behind the different leaks.

This combines themes from Trump鈥檚 business past: skill in marketing and media management, comfort with change (some might say comfort with chaos), and tolerance for staff that argue among themselves. Most of all, it places him at the center, as the star of the show, the man who decides who does and doesn鈥檛 get fired.

Thus Trump鈥檚 impending (or not) staff reshuffling is entirely in keeping with the way he has run his life, says Chris Edelson, an assistant professor of government at American University.

鈥淭he lesson he probably takes from his life is, what I have done has worked out. But it has been a near miss,鈥� says Mr. Edelson, citing the multiple times Trump businesses have gone bankrupt.

Extraordinary upheaval

As of mid-Friday afternoon none of the many alleged impending White House staff moves had come to pass, following Secretary of State Rex Tillerson鈥檚 dismissal Tuesday. National Security Adviser McMaster was still in place, despite his status as the person most rumored to be on the way out. Gen. McMaster鈥檚 military-style brusqueness and tendency to speak at length about issues has reportedly not endeared him to the president.

Trump may want to let the media settle down in the wake of Tillerson鈥檚 firing. In that sense, stories about possible personnel moves might be anti-predictive, actually making the change in question less likely to occur.

Indeed, the current White House has already seen record levels of staff turnover. For the first calendar year in office, turnover among 鈥淎鈥� level White House personnel for the Trump administration has been triple the comparable figure for the Obama administration, and double that of the Reagan administration, according to figures compiled by Brookings Institution senior fellow Kathryn Dunn Tenpas.

Add in the moves made through early March of 2018, and Trump has a 43 percent turnover rate, Ms. Tenpas says. In contrast, Obama鈥檚 total turnover for the four years of his first term was 71 percent.

A focus on loyalty in hiring, and the general tumult of the first year of Trump鈥檚 administration, may have been the main reasons for the record turnover, according to Tenpas.

鈥淚t is not difficult to see why there may have been a great deal of turnover among the senior ranks,鈥� in an analysis of her data.

Pros and cons of turnover

While turmoil in the ranks isn鈥檛 good, sometimes it鈥檚 wise to get rid of people who aren鈥檛 working out. In that sense, it鈥檚 obvious that some of Trump鈥檚 firings may have made his administration more efficient.

Incoming administrations often fill key spots with top campaign aides who have proved their loyalty, says Matthew Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College. But skill with campaigns doesn鈥檛 necessarily translate to skill at the difficult, political job of governance. In that sense, some of Trump鈥檚 high profile firings, such as his dismissal of strategist Steve Bannon, may have strengthened his team.

鈥淚 think Trump is learning on the fly,鈥� says Dr. Dickinson.

But not all moves may have made the White House staff better. According to the Associated Press, Trump has recently told confidants that he needs to follow his own instincts more, and pay less heed to staff members who raise warning signs on particular policies or flat tell him 鈥渘o.鈥�

Presidents do need to maintain a diversity of opinion in their inner ranks, says Dickinson. In that sense, it would not be a good thing if Trump were just surrounding himself with an inner corps of 鈥測es鈥� staffers who will acquiesce in his impulsive moves.

鈥淚t is tough to hear somebody always disagreeing with you. The risk is you put yourself in an echo chamber,鈥� Dickinson says.

Usually, presidential administrations face some turmoil in the first year as they weed out unsuitable appointees, then settle down for a period of stability. Some officials leave as mid-term elections approach, then the exodus grows as the end of a term nears. Working in the White House is exhausting under any president; appointees often want to get out and make some money from their experience while they can.

The Trump White House hasn鈥檛 yet reached that initial stable point. That may be putting things mildly 鈥� the backbiting and infighting has reached the point where news reports talk of rock bottom morale. The Washington Post report on McMaster鈥檚 possible transfer went so far as to say the mood in the White House now 鈥渧erges on mania.鈥�

That context puts all the leaks about personnel moves in an odd context, say some observers. 鈥淚t鈥檚 almost like they鈥檙e a cry for help,鈥� says Chris Edelson of American University.