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Trump visit to Puerto Rico: a chance to deflect 'Katrina' comparisons

From slow arrival of aid to abrasive tweets, the President鈥檚 hurricane response has been criticized, and amplifies Trump鈥檚 long-running rift with Latino voters. 

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Evan Vucci/AP
President Trump gestures after arriving at the Luis Mu帽iz Air National Guard Base in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Oct. 3, 2017. Trump is visiting Puerto Rico in the wake of hurricane Maria.

President Trump has been praised for his administration鈥檚 response to last month鈥檚 hurricanes in Texas and Florida 鈥 no small feat. It was the first time two Category 4 storms had hit the United States in the same year.

But Puerto Rico has been another story. Hurricane Maria left the island in utter devastation, and critics have accused the Trump administration of lagging in its response. Mr. Trump, in turn, attacked local officials as 鈥減olitically motivated ingrates鈥 and called coverage of the devastation 鈥渇ake news.鈥

Complicating it all is Trump鈥檚 prickly relationship with Latinos, who have never seen this president as an ally. Trump鈥檚 visit Tuesday to Puerto Rico represents an opportunity to turn the page, but a narrative is already setting in: Maria is Trump鈥檚 鈥淜atrina,鈥 a reference to the charge that聽President George W. Bush had failed a devastated New Orleans after its own hurricane in 2005.

Can today鈥檚 downward spiral of recriminations and distrust be reversed?

It has to, at least to some degree, as Puerto Rico tackles the immediate task of storm recovery 鈥 an enterprise that by definition involves government at all levels, from local to federal.

鈥淚t鈥檚 almost beyond politics,鈥 says Ed Morales, author of the forthcoming book 鈥淟atinx: The New Force in American Politics and Culture.鈥 鈥淧eople鈥檚 lives are turned upside down.鈥

After what was widely seen on the island as a slow response to the disaster, federal aid and personnel are now surging in, the island鈥檚 governor reported over the weekend. On Tuesday, after landing in Puerto Rico, Trump contrasted the low hurricane death toll in Puerto Rico 鈥 16 people 鈥 with the nearly 2,000 who died during what he called 鈥渁 real catastrophe like Katrina,鈥 demonstrating his sensitivity to comparisons to the storm that ravaged New Orleans.

Trump also gave himself an 鈥淎-plus鈥 on the response to all the recent hurricanes that have hit Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.

At his first briefing on the island, Trump was joined by the mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico鈥檚 capital, with whom he had conducted a high-profile feud in recent days via Twitter and television. Mayor Carmen Yul铆n Cruz had accused the federal government of 鈥渒illing us鈥 with a slow response; Trump shot back with a charge of 鈥減oor leadership鈥 and accusations that Puerto Ricans 鈥渨ant everything to be done for them.鈥

Now the focus is the recovery itself, which promises to be a long haul. By Tuesday, nearly two weeks after the storm hit, only 7 percent of electrical service and 40 percent of telecommunications .

GOP鈥檚 challenge with Latino voters

But the longer-running narrative of Trump鈥檚 鈥 and Republicans鈥 鈥 problems with Latino voters is likely to persist long after Puerto Rico is fully back in business. Trump famously began his presidential campaign by calling Mexicans rapists and drug-dealers, and touting his plan for a southern border wall.

But he still managed to score slightly better with Latinos (28 percent of their vote) in the 2016 election than the Republican Party鈥檚 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney (27 percent). The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Trump鈥檚 approval rating among Hispanics at 21 percent.

Puerto Ricans are American citizens, albeit without voting representation in Congress or the right to vote in presidential elections. Therefore, they are not affected by immigration issues in the same way that many Latinos on the mainland are.

Still, there has been a sharp racial/ethnic dimension to the political messaging around Puerto Rico and the comparisons with Katrina, when images of displaced and suffering African Americans dominated coverage.

鈥淚鈥檝e got to be honest, there鈥檚 a lot of dishonest politics going on here,鈥 says Republican strategist Ford O鈥機onnell. 鈥淭he Democrats are clearly trying to make this Trump鈥檚 Katrina through identity politics, just because of questionable statements made about Hispanics throughout the campaign.鈥

Another political dimension that roils the Puerto Rico story centers on Florida: If waves of Puerto Ricans move to the Sunshine State permanently, and begin voting there, that could be a game-changer in this critical battleground state.

鈥淪o in the most purple of purple states, there鈥檚 suddenly an influx of people who have already tended to vote Democratic in elections, now they鈥檙e moving to Florida, and they really aren鈥檛 happy with Donald J. Trump,鈥 says Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist based in Tallahassee and a Trump critic. 鈥淪o guess who gets the dirty end of the stick 鈥 Republicans in Florida.鈥

Special hurdles in helping Puerto Rico

Lost in the fierce political battle over the optics of Puerto Rico and Trump is the reality of the relief effort itself. Jeremy Konyndyk, an expert on emergency response at the Center for Global Development in Washington, cites three key factors in assessing the Puerto Rico situation.

First, the logistics of disaster response are always tough on an island, especially given the level of devastation that Puerto Rico experienced. Second, managing several disasters at once is especially difficult, with Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico all facing historic storms in quick succession. Third comes the role of the federal government.

鈥淭he buck always stops with the president,鈥 says Mr. Konyndyk, who served at the Obama administration鈥檚 director for foreign disaster assistance at USAID.

Typically, the 鈥渞esponse architecture鈥 in a natural disaster has local authorities taking the lead and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) playing a support role.

But in a situation like Puerto Rico 鈥渨here FEMA has to be the show, not just support the show, it鈥檚 a heavier lift,鈥 Konyndyk says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 where presidential leadership becomes such an important variable.鈥

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