Why Hillary Clinton doesn鈥檛 want a GOP collapse
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| Washington
By all appearances, Hillary Clinton doesn鈥檛 want to take down the entire Republican Party 鈥 mainly just Donald Trump鈥檚 chances at becoming president.
Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 speech last week attacking Mr. Trump and the conservative movement known as the 鈥渁lt-right鈥 made that crystal clear. She accused Trump of 鈥 and helping a radical fringe take over the Republican Party.鈥澛
And she used headlines from the alt-right-infused Breitbart News - whose chairman, Stephen Bannon, is now CEO of Trump鈥檚 campaign 鈥 as a foil for her attacks on Trump.
But Clinton spared congressional Republicans from her wrath and even offered words of support. House Speaker Paul Ryan, she noted, had tagged Trump鈥檚 attack on a Mexican-American judge as 鈥渢extbook鈥 racism. She praised Sen. John McCain for his 2008 defense of Barack Obama as an American citizen and decent man. And she rejected Trump鈥檚 claim that Sen. Ted Cruz鈥檚 Cuban father was involved in the Kennedy assassination.
Clinton wasn鈥檛 doing this out of altruism. She was preparing for the future. Unless the trajectory of the presidential race changes substantially 鈥 Trump鈥檚 chances of winning stand at 19 percent, per the 鈥 Clinton is likely the next president, and she wants at least a fighting chance of getting things done. That means a functioning opposition party.
鈥淚 think she鈥檚 giving Republicans a sense that she鈥檒l talk to them,鈥 says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. 聽
Of course, Clinton does want the Democrats to retake the Senate and slim down the GOP鈥檚 big majority in the House, so she鈥檚 not exactly offering lifelines to too many endangered Republicans. Not that praise from Clinton necessarily helps Republicans with their voters. But as things stands now, if Democrats do take over the Senate, their margin of control will be slim 鈥 and she will still need Republican votes to reach the 60 needed to defeat a filibuster. And chances remain strong that Republicans will hold onto the House.
Bottom line: To get anything done, a President Hillary Clinton will need to work with Republicans. And for now, that means keeping a laser focus on Trump, including portraying him as not a 鈥渞eal鈥 Republican, while making sure she can still have some kind of working relationship with party leadership later.
鈥淚 think she wants to be able to work with [Senate majority leader Mitch] McConnell and [Speaker] Ryan, so she鈥檚 not going to try to do anything to alienate them more than just her very being alienates them,鈥 says Michele Swers, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington.
A record of bipartisanship
Clinton鈥檚 history as a senator, from 2001 to 2009, suggests a willingness to work hard, focus on policy and not point-scoring, and work across the aisle. During her first run at the presidency in 2008, even the most conservative senators spoke highly of Clinton.
In a Monitor interview in 2008, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R) of Pennsylvania praised Clinton as 鈥渕uch more of a uniter鈥 in the Senate than her then-rival for the Democratic nomination, Senator Obama. Clinton鈥檚 husband, former President Bill Clinton, used to joke that she and Senator McCain got along so well their presidential debates would put voters to sleep.
A comparison of Clinton鈥檚 style as a senator and Obama鈥檚 style as both a senator and president raises some hope that she may have more success in working with Congress than he has.
鈥淪he and Obama are both policy wonky,鈥 says Professor Swers. 鈥淏ut she鈥檚 more willing to do the personal outreach and courting of members of the other party in a way that maybe Obama wasn鈥檛.鈥
But the Washington of 2008, as partisan as it was, isn鈥檛 the hyper-partisan Washington of 2016, and a Senator Clinton 鈥 one of 100, and a member of the minority party most of her time there 鈥 isn鈥檛 the same as a President Clinton. It鈥檚 also easy to see a Clinton presidency instantly bogged down by congressional investigations into her emails and the Clinton family foundation. Still, it鈥檚 also possible to see Clinton and the Republicans trying for some early accomplishments in 2017 on areas where the two parties 鈥 and the public 鈥 agree.
While Clinton has campaigned heavily on hot button issues such as free tuition for public colleges and immigration reform, she has also talked about a 鈥渇irst 100 days鈥 agenda that includes areas of common ground.
鈥淪he has said that infrastructure spending is a priority, and I think that鈥檚 pretty deliberate,鈥 says Swers. 鈥淪he figures, what are the areas Republicans might actually agree to move on, and infrastructure spending might be one.鈥
Trump鈥檚 $1 trillion proposal for infrastructure spending, in fact, is than Clinton鈥檚, at $275 billion.聽
A changed GOP?
But exactly what kind of Republican Party will take its seats in the House and Senate come January is anybody鈥檚 guess. If Nov. 8 brings a blowout, it may take a while for the new GOP to get its bearings. A narrow defeat for Trump may leave his wing of the party emboldened, and an establishment GOP leadership on Capitol Hill under siege. A Trump victory would signal a wholesale remake of the party.
But if Clinton wins and Democrats retake the Senate, her biggest challenge in dealing with Congress will be the House. The Republicans who lose their House seats in November are likely to be what鈥檚 left of the more moderate wing of the House Republican conference. Members in safe red districts 鈥 some of whom align with the tea party-oriented Freedom Caucus 鈥 aren鈥檛 going to lose.
鈥淩yan will have less of a cushion,鈥 says Swers. And so the leader Clinton may have hopes of working with may have little room for maneuver.
But for now, Democratic allies of Clinton in the House are working Ryan from a different angle. In a conference call with reporters Tuesday morning, three senior House Democrats 鈥 Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, Xavier Becerra of California, and Nita Lowey of New York all called on Ryan, Senator McConnell, and other Republican leaders to distance themselves from Trump鈥檚 鈥渉ateful rhetoric.鈥
Clinton鈥檚 alt-right speech elicited from the mainstream right. But that doesn鈥檛 mean Republican leaders didn鈥檛 hear the message. The story of 2016 is far from over.