Is opinion turning against Joe Arpaio in Arizona?
A federal judge has asked the US Attorney鈥檚 Office to file criminal contempt charges against Joe Arpaio, the sheriff of Arizona鈥檚 Maricopa County, accusing Mr. Arpaio of ignoring court orders in connection with his office鈥檚 racial profiling of Latinos.
District Judge G. Murray Snow wrote that the sheriff had 鈥渁 history of obfuscation and subversion of this court鈥檚 orders that is as old as this case,鈥� . The judge added that there existed probable cause to believe that Arpaio and a deputy had lied under oath to obstruct investigations into further wrongdoing.听
The sheriff's heavy-handed approach to undocumented immigrants at one point made him a hugely popular figure who sailed through re-election with two-thirds of the vote, but as demographics in his county have changed, his popularity has begun a precipitous slide.
The request for criminal contempt charges echoes an earlier ruling, also from Judge Snow, in which Snow found聽聽in another case regarding聽racial discrimination against Latinos.
If Snow鈥檚 latest request to the US Attorney's Office is honored, Arpaio could face fines or jail time.
It comes as the sheriff鈥檚 approach toward immigration violations 鈥� which coupled harsh, often humiliating punishment with a kind of zany Americana 鈥� enjoys a national renaissance in the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, who has stumped with Arpaio on the campaign trail.
But Arpaio, who has served as sheriff for , has seen his popular support slowly erode since 2000, when he won reelection with 66 percent of the vote, . In 2016, he may be facing his toughest challenge yet.
In a independent poll of 348 likely voters, Arpaio by a 5-point margin 鈥� which is also the poll鈥檚 margin of error. Two weeks before, a Republican poll , Democrat Paul Penzone, a 3-point lead in the race.
Arpaio鈥檚 popularity among residents of Maricopa County has also slipped in more general terms. found that 50 percent of respondents viewed him unfavorably, compared to 44 percent who favored him. 鈥淲hether that actually translates into electoral vulnerability this fall remains to be seen,鈥� the firm wrote, 鈥渂ut he clearly isn't exactly a beloved figure with his constituents.鈥�
Part of the decline in popularity comes from the changing demographics of Maricopa County, which has taken in some 148,000 people from other states and 53,000 from other countries since 2010, .听
Retirees, who have long favored the county's dry climate, no doubt make up a major portion of the new residents. But Phoenix and its suburbs, where voters are often younger and more politically liberal, may look less fondly upon Arpaio.
In 2012, Michael O鈥橬eil, chief executive of the public-opinion research firm O鈥橬eil Associates, told the Capitol Times that Arpaio鈥檚 election victory that year could be his 鈥渓ast hurrah,鈥� pointing to losses in some majority-Republican districts in and around Phoenix, where voters tend to be affluent and better educated.
鈥淗e was the most popular guy in the state, but he鈥檚 been on a long slow ride down,鈥� O鈥橬eil said then. 鈥淭he question was, 鈥楥ould he hang on this one last time?鈥� And he only won by a hair.鈥�
