The Trump show and the irony of a 'showbiz' GOP convention
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| Cleveland
Donald Trump has promised a 鈥渟howbiz鈥 convention, but where are all the stars? On this, the opening day of the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, the names of speakers revealed so far .
But it doesn鈥檛 matter. This is Mr. Trump鈥檚 show, and with all things Trump in this most improbable of presidential cycles, it is already the most unconventional of political conventions in modern history. The Republican Party is bitterly divided over its presumptive nominee, who brings to the race. Scores of top party figures 鈥 including senators, House members, and governors 鈥 aren鈥檛 coming.
Even the Ohio governor, John Kasich, is shunning Trump, all the while planning to be conspicuously on scene in Cleveland this week 鈥 talking to the media, appearing at events, monitoring security, throwing a bash at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
But Trump is still the star of the show, and with Trump, ever the performer, we鈥檙e never quite sure what he will do until he does it. Which, for anyone even vaguely interested in politics, makes it must-see TV.
鈥淗e鈥檚 running as a celebrity, and celebrities don鈥檛 play by any other rules than the rules of celebrity,鈥 says cultural historian Neal Gabler. That is, keep it interesting, keep the narrative moving, keep the audience rapt.
And therein lies the irony for the Republican Party: Ratings are likely to be higher than usual for a political convention with the nomination set 鈥 under normal circumstances a dream for a party trying to advertise its brand and expand its reach. But it鈥檚 Trump鈥檚 party, at least until November. His convention could be messy, both inside the arena and out, and it could project an image 鈥 populist, nativist, nostalgic for a time many Americans would rather not revisit 鈥 that sets the Republican Party on an uncertain path.
Or it could be a pivot point, in which Trump makes himself more broadly likable and boosts a sense that he is a credible national leader.
鈥淒onald Trump won鈥檛 have a better opportunity other than this coming week to demonstrate to the American public that he can be the president,鈥 says Republican media consultant Bruce Haynes of Purple Strategies. 鈥淚f he can execute a glitch-free four-day convention where people come away with a feeling that he鈥檚 competent, he has a message, and a vision for the future of the country that works for people, then he will have succeeded.鈥
The question is whether Trump can capitalize on that opportunity.
How Trump influenced party platform
Trump鈥檚 selection of low-key Indiana Gov. (and former Congressman) Mike Pence as his running mate has been reassuring to the Republican establishment and social conservatives. Governor Pence calls himself a 鈥満=谴笊, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order.鈥 But the selection of Pence doesn鈥檛 change the calculus of the race 鈥 or the convention. The person at the top always defines the ticket, and that will be especially so in 2016.
鈥淭imes are changing, and the ground has shifted away from my type of Republicans. It is no longer a Washington-oriented, conventional, traditional party,鈥 says Ari Fleischer, press secretary under former President George W. Bush and co-author of the GOP鈥檚 2013 鈥渁utopsy鈥 report on how to widen the party鈥檚 appeal.
The report called for passage of comprehensive immigration reform and outreach to women, minorities, and young voters. Trump鈥檚 inflammatory rhetoric, seen by some as xenophobic, racist, and misogynistic, has blown a hole in that proposition. His lineup of convention speakers 鈥 including 鈥 appears to be an effort to remedy that.
On substance, the draft party platform for 2016 largely ignores the autopsy.
On immigration, foreign policy, and trade, Trump鈥檚 views carried the day. The new platform calls for a border wall with Mexico, criticizes US military interventions abroad, and rejects current trade deals as job-killers. On abortion and gay rights, issues that aren鈥檛 central to Trump鈥檚 message, the party鈥檚 social conservative wing prevailed.
Trump 'borrowed the name Republican'
But even if 鈥淭rumpism鈥 now infuses much of the GOP platform, there鈥檚 still a sense among party regulars that this may be just temporary.
鈥淭rump is an independent who鈥檚 borrowed the name 鈥楻epublican鈥 to put up on the building he's creating,鈥 says Mr. Fleischer, who could have attended the convention as a Trump delegate but opted to stay home. 鈥淗e鈥檚 much more of a populist who has no fixed ideology, unlike the conservative movement. So that鈥檚 why the party is split, and that makes for a somewhat awkward convention.
If Trump wins, it鈥檚 a new era. He will recast what it means to be a Republican. If he loses, the party will go through 鈥渁 period of agonizing reappraisal,鈥 says Tom Rath, a former Republican National Committee member from New Hampshire and a Kasich adviser and delegate.
But for now, with polls showing a tight race against Hillary Clinton, no one can rule out a Trump victory in November. In Cleveland, another big task for Trump will be to unify the party as best he can. The small 鈥淣ever Trump鈥 movement died last week in the convention鈥檚 Rules Committee, but considerable wariness within the party toward the nominee remains. Among all the Trump delegates at the Quicken Loans Arena there will be plenty of others for 2016 also-rans Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Governor Kasich 鈥 and plenty of chatter about 2020.
To GOP: 'Quit whining and support Trump'
To Trump supporters, the disunity in the party is a source of intense frustration. After all, they supported 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney four years ago, even though they weren鈥檛 in love, and now he鈥檚 not even coming to the 2016 convention. Neither are any members of the Bush family -- including the party鈥檚 two living ex-presidents 鈥 or 2008 nominee John McCain.
鈥淚 really believe that these Republican guys need to grow up and quit whining and support Trump,鈥 says Shaun McCutcheon, a Trump delegate from Alabama. Four years ago, 鈥淚 wasn鈥檛 on fire to Romney, but I supported him because Romney was the party choice.鈥
Mr. McCutcheon says he gave Romney the maximum contribution allowed by law, met with him at Alabama events, and attended the 2012 convention.
McCutcheon also expects the 2016 convention to be a whole lot of fun. Indeed, parties and schmoozing are a big part of any political convention, and with the larger-than-life Trump at the top of the marquee, Cleveland is buzzing.
The city is also bracing for protesters, and has put in place strict security and brought in law enforcement personnel from around the country to help keep the peace. The shooting deaths of three police officers in Baton Rouge, La., on Sunday presented a sobering reminder of the climate of violence extant in the nation.
But inside Cleveland鈥檚 Quicken Loans Arena, for four nights beginning Monday, it will be the Trump show. And as the political world has learned since he jumped into the race more than a year ago, anything can happen.