海角大神

The wind was whipping, sending icy gusts down Walnut Street in Harrisburg, where Sen. Pat Toomey (R) of Pennsylvania has an office. But the cold didn't deter Deb Fulham-Winston, who stood on the steps of the federal building, holding up her sign urging the senator to #DoYourJob.

鈥淭his is a terrible precedent to be setting,鈥� she said of Senator Toomey and his Republican colleagues. They鈥檙e refusing to hold a hearing or vote on President Obama鈥檚 Supreme Court nominee until the next president is in place next year. 鈥淭hey are not stepping up to their responsibility. It鈥檚 just wrong.鈥�

Two days after Ms. Fulham-Winston and a modest group of protesters chanted 鈥淒o your job! Do your job!鈥� 鈥� a scene that was repeated in several cities in the state last week 鈥� Senator Toomey inched toward the position of the demonstrators.聽On Wednesday, He announced that he would meet with nominee Merrick Garland as a courtesy to the president and Mr. Garland.聽

But don鈥檛 expect him to go beyond that, or for the Senate Republican caucus to cave, or even for vulnerable Republicans such as Toomey to lose their seats over this particular issue.聽

With a few exceptions, Republicans are holding firm in their view that a presidential campaign is too heated a time to deal with such a key nomination 鈥� despite organized Democratic pressure as well as polls showing that a majority of Americans favor taking up a nominee now.聽

The reason Republicans can stand firm is because of voters such as Wendy, a mom from Camp Hill, Pa.

Wendy, who did not want her last name used, is following the issue in the news and volunteers that it鈥檚 important to maintain the system of checks and balances on government that is provided by the courts. It鈥檚 鈥渨eird鈥� to keep that spot open for so long, she comments, speaking of the vacancy left by the passing of Justice Antonin Scalia in February.

But here鈥檚 the thing. This Supreme Court vacancy is not a burning issue for her. It鈥檚 not going to decide her vote. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know that it would be one of my highest priorities,鈥� she says, about to enter a restaurant in a Harrisburg suburb.聽

Same thing for Tina Schellhorn, a registered nurse from Furlong, just north of Philadelphia. The Supreme Court nominee? 鈥淚鈥檓 not even following it,鈥� she says, though a likely contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton adds spice to her family鈥檚 dinner table conversations.聽

The nomination to the highest court in the land is what Jennifer Duffy of the independent Cook Political Report calls a 鈥渂ase issue,鈥� not a 鈥渧oting issue.鈥� That is, it lacks the saliency to move voters for or against a candidate 鈥� though it gins up the base on both sides.聽聽

You can see that difference in the polls.聽

In Pennsylvania, for instance, 62 percent of registered voters say the Senate should hold hearings to fill the Supreme Court vacancy, while 35 percent say this should wait until after the presidential election, according to taken earlier this month. National polls also show a majority of voters favor moving on a nominee now.

But the most important problem facing Pennsylvania, according to the poll, is government and politicians (the state has had a severe disagreement over its budget and education funding), followed by education, joblessness, and finance issues. National polls show the economy, dissatisfaction with government, terrorism, and immigration among the top concerns.聽

At the same time, the Franklin& Marshall poll shows why this issue excites the base: 80 percent of Democrats say the Senate should hold hearings now; only 34 percent of Republicans agree (73 percent of Independents or something else also favor hearings now). National polls show a similar partisan divide.

鈥淚鈥檓 not yet convinced that the Supreme Court becomes the dominant issue in this campaign,鈥� says pollster G. Terry Madonna, of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. There may be times when the issue could gain traction, for instance, when Supreme Court decisions come out in June, possibly highlighting a split court, he says.

But no decisions are rendered in the fall, the height of election season. Still, 鈥淒o I think Democrats will use this issue? Of course,鈥� says Mr. Madonna.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will appear in Wisconsin聽on Monday聽afternoon, asking voters to keep the Supreme Court high on their priority list and to imagine what a nominee by a President Trump would mean.聽

Wisconsin has a primary聽April 5. It is also home to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who faces a tough election this fall. Like Toomey, he believes the nomination should wait until the next president.

In the two weeks that vulnerable GOP incumbents such as Senators Johnson and Toomey are home on recess, liberal activists are organizing protests, call-in campaigns, and press conferences at Republican senators鈥� local offices and public events (when they can find out where they are). They鈥檙e targeting senators in Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas.聽

But conservative activists have launched a counter campaign, using television ads to thank senators such as Toomey for holding his ground and to target Democratic senators in red or purple states like聽, North Dakota, and Colorado.聽

After Sen. Terry Moran (R) of Kansas recently joined Sen. Mark Kirk (R) of Illinois and moderate Sen. Susan Collins (R) of Maine in calling for a hearing,聽聽threatened to 鈥減rimary鈥� him 鈥� backing a conservative challenger in his next primary. The Judicial Crisis Network, a conservative group, is planning a聽聽Kansas voters about the stakes involved.聽

In Pennsylvania, Republican Joe Cullen calls President Obama鈥檚 attempt to move a nominee in the middle of a presidential election 鈥渞idiculous鈥� and faults him for acting as if government were a 鈥渙ne-legged stool.鈥�

But, being the vice chairman of the Bucks County Republican Committee, Mr. Cullen was already going to vote for Toomey, who, at the moment, is ahead in polls in this blue state.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think people are staying up at night鈥� worrying about the Supreme Court nominee, says Cullen.聽

Political analysts would agree 鈥� noting the exception of the activists on both sides, who are busily working to motivate their base on the issue.