Why is Hillary Clinton losing her lead?
Less than three weeks shy of the first primary election, Hillary Clinton is losing her once-sizable lead on Bernie Sanders, the self-proclaimed socialist senator from Vermont.
The latest smattering of polls have shown that Senator Sanders has the edge in Iowa and has widened his lead in New Hampshire. Nationally, Mrs. Clinton is still ahead, but the race is tightening. According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, she鈥檚 now only seven points ahead of Sanders nationwide, 13 points down from her lead in December.
In Tuesday鈥檚 Quinnipiac University poll, said they support Sanders, and 44 percent went with Clinton. That's a shift from December, when Clinton was at 51 percent and Sanders at 40 percent. Meanwhile in New Hampshire, likely Democratic primary voters put , 53 percent to Clinton鈥檚 39.
One possible explanation for her diminishing edge is Sanders鈥檚 recent push with advertising. In December, his campaign aired 鈥� nearly one third more than Clinton鈥檚 ads. Since November, his campaign has spent $9.7 million to Clinton鈥檚 $7.4 million.
Another possibility involves Bill Clinton鈥檚 history of sexual misconduct. Thanks to Donald Trump, the former president鈥檚 past scandals have been dragged out from under the rug. And some conservative pundits believe it鈥檚 had a toll on Hillary Clinton鈥檚 polling.
鈥淭he only difference between mid-December and now is ,鈥� writes Dick Morris, a former adviser who has become a harsh critic of the Clintons, on The Hill.
Meanwhile, as The Atlantic鈥檚 David Graham points out, Sanders hasn鈥檛 faced any substantial attacks from Republicans and his visibility has increased.
鈥淭he Sanders campaign sees the ,鈥� Mr. Graham writes, 鈥渨hich also relies on the idea that voters are just tuning in. They say that this is proof that Sanders鈥檚 electability and message about inequality is resonating with voters now.鈥�
But, according to Clinton鈥檚 camp, the slouching numbers aren't cause for serious concern.
"I鈥檓 working hard and I intend to keep working as hard as I can until the last vote or caucus-goer expresses an opinion. I鈥檓 excited about where we are,鈥� the former secretary of State said on NBC's "Today" show Wednesday morning.
鈥淚鈥檓 not nervous at all,鈥� she added.
Political experts have long pointed to the theory of 鈥渘atural tightening,鈥� in which the race invariably grows closer toward the end, when more and more voters are paying attention. Historically, the weeks leading up to the primaries are fraught with inconsistent rankings. One candidate could be in the lead one day, and another the following week. In turn, polls right before the first votes are cast are not accurate in predicting who will ultimately win the nomination.
To the Clinton campaign, this is a viable explanation.
"Since the campaign started, we have said this race will be a competitive, tough race that would tighten and we鈥檇 have to earn the nomination,鈥� spokesman Jesse Ferguson said in a statement. "We have built a tremendous grassroots organization in Iowa fueled by enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton and her record, that is set to compete and win.鈥�
