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Why South Carolina's black vote is Hillary Clinton's to lose

Despite a high-profile clash with Black Lives Matter, Hillary Clinton has one big advantage over Democratic rivals.

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Richard Burkhart/AP Images for TV One
Roland Martin, Host and Managing Editor TV One鈥檚 News One Now, shows Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton how to do the 'Wobble' following a town hall meeting hosted by the South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus, Nov. 7, 2015, at Ministers Hall on the Campus of Claflin University in Orangeburg, SC.

When the Democratic candidates for president came here recently, it seemed that the race to compete for South Carolina鈥檚 crucial black vote might be somewhat up for grabs.

Both Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont have had high-profile run-ins with the Black Lives Matter movement, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley鈥檚 get-tough-on-crime platform while mayor of Baltimore in the early 2000s has been blamed for alienating the black community there.

Yet interviews here and polls of the state leave no doubt: The African-American vote is Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 to lose.

Attendees at the roundtable discussion moderated by Rachel Maddow of MSNBC here at Winthrop University spoke of Clinton鈥檚 experience, her tough demeanor, and the perception that she鈥檚 the most logical heir to President Obama. But unspoken, say analysts, is the simple fact that she鈥檚 a Clinton, and among the black community 鈥撀爄n the South, in particular 鈥 that goes a long way.

"The joke for so long was that Bill Clinton was the first black president," says Kendra Stewart, a political scientist at the College of Charleston. "Now that's in poor taste because we actually have a black president, but several generations of African Americans still have a fondness for the policies and presidency of Bill Clinton."

Those benefits now fall on his wife, Professor Stewart says.

Results released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling show Clinton leading Senator Sanders 72 to 18 percent among all voters surveyed in South Carolina, but 86 to 11 percent among African-Americans in the state. Mr. O'Malley trailed, with 5 percent of all voters and 1 percent of black voters.

"Those numbers really speak to the trouble Sanders may have in states beyond Iowa and New Hampshire that have considerably more diverse primary electorates," the polling firm said, in an accompanying analysis of the polls.

Among the 32 percent of those surveyed who watched the forum, Clinton was judged the winner by 67 percent, ahead of Sanders (16 percent) and O'Malley (6 percent). Among African Americans, Clinton was deemed the winner by 80 percent, followed by Sanders at 13 percent and O'Malley at 4 percent.

Deborah Breedlove, a financial adviser from Columbia, S.C., who was a 2008 delegate for Obama, says Clinton is the logical choice.

鈥淚 think a lot of the things that President Obama started will be better-served by Hillary Clinton as the next president. Not just for things important to African-Americans but to everybody because, basically, they鈥檙e the same,鈥 she says.

鈥淎 level of consciousness has been raised because of the problems with a lot of different things: police brutality, guns, voter registration is being suppressed. All of those different things, I think, South Carolina will be one of the first states [people] will look at in South with a big African-American population,鈥 she adds. 鈥淎nd I think we鈥檙e going to come through for鈥 Clinton.

For Ernest Cooper, a retired state employee from New Zion, S.C., Clinton stands out as the candidate who won鈥檛 be cowed by Republicans.

He鈥檚 worried that Republicans want to rein in Social Security and make Medicare more expensive. But 鈥淗illary鈥檚 a person you can鈥檛 intimidate,鈥 he says. 鈥淩epublicans tried that 鈥 in that hearing [about Benghazi]. If anyone ever stood their ground against the Republican Party, she stood her ground. That鈥檚 what I鈥檓 looking for, somebody not afraid to take the heat."

Not everyone is sold yet. State Rep. Joseph Neal, pastor of Calvary Baptist Church in Chester, S.C., cites many of Sanders鈥檚 top issues as crucial to African Americans.

鈥淚鈥檓 looking for someone to provide some leadership on issues that are critical to the African-American community, starting with income equity, jobs,鈥 he says. 鈥淚 remember all too well what happened in 2007 when this economy crashed, in large part due to the fact that Glass-Steagall was gutted in 1999. That allowed the banks and Wall Street to do what they did. I鈥檓 looking for someone to restore Glass-Steagall and put some controls on Wall Street and on banking in this country. I鈥檓 looking for someone to expand health care. I would love to have single-payer Medicare for everybody.鈥

On Clinton, he says, 鈥淪he鈥檚 a very nice lady. I don鈥檛 have a candidate at the moment. I don鈥檛 want any more rhetoric. Show me what you鈥檙e going to do.鈥

Others are complimentary of Sanders, too. Ms. Breedlove, the 2008 Obama delegate, says 鈥淚 think Bernie Sanders was an excellent candidate. I shouldn鈥檛 say was. He is. I like the way they鈥檝e handled themselves 鈥 there鈥檚 not been the bickering, the back and forth. It shows the Democratic Party is very strong. We can eventually unite.鈥

As the first primary in the South 鈥 and the first primary in a diverse state 鈥 South Carolina is an important test for candidates. More than half of the Democratic voters in South Carolina are African Americans.

鈥淵ou go to Iowa, you go to New Hampshire鈥 鈥 the first two nomination contests for candidates in both parties 鈥 鈥渁nd you don鈥檛 see demographics like that,鈥 says Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop and director of the school鈥檚 statewide political polls. 鈥淪outh Carolina is the litmus test of African Americans.鈥

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