What if Donald Trump runs as an independent candidate?
Following pressure from the Republican National Convention to tone down his provocative commentary, Donald Trump has threatened to take his business 鈥� and his voter support 鈥� elsewhere.
In an Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that if he continues to feel as though the RNC is not playing 鈥渇air,鈥� he would consider shedding the Republican name and running as an independent. As the top-ranking Republican in recent polls, if Trump turned independent, many of the other GOP presidential candidates might breathe a sigh of relief. But聽 suggests that ultimately, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton would be the one to reap the benefits in a three-way race.
Trump told The Hill he believed the RNC liked him better when he was writing them checks. If he does not win the Republican primary, he said the convention鈥檚 negativity toward him 鈥渨ould be a factor鈥� in pushing him to run on a different ticket.
鈥淭he RNC has not been supportive. They were always supportive when I was a contributor. I was their fair-haired boy,鈥� Trump said. 鈥淭he RNC has been, I think, very foolish.鈥�
But running as an independent may be counterproductive to both Trump and the RNC鈥檚 ends: it could divide the conservative voting bloc enough to neutralize the Republican electorate, effectively handing the White House to the Democrats. Some have likened the Trump as independent candidate to what happened when, and took 19 percent of the vote in the 1992 presidential election.聽
Polling data predicts that if Trump were to run in a three-way race against Jeb Bush 鈥� the next-in-line Republican candidate 鈥� and Ms. Clinton, the votes he would divert from the GOP would keep Mr. Bush from winning, but would not be enough to best Clinton.
鈥淚n a general election trial heat, Clinton leads Bush, the GOP fundraising leader, by a slight 50-44 percent among registered voters,鈥� ABC News reported. 鈥淏ut with Trump as an independent candidate that goes to 46-30-20 percent, Clinton-Bush-Trump 鈥� with Trump drawing support disproportionately from Bush, turning a 6-point Clinton advantage into 16 points.鈥�
The RNC has most recently reprimanded Trump for saying Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) was not a war hero. But Trump said it is not his brash mouth that is alienating the party, but his lack of status with the political 鈥渋n-crowd."
鈥淚鈥檓 not in the gang. I鈥檓 not in the group where the group does whatever it鈥檚 supposed to do,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 want to do what鈥檚 right for the country 鈥� not what鈥檚 good for special interest groups that contribute, not what鈥檚 good for the lobbyists and the donors.鈥�
He added that, in contrast with the politician 鈥済ang,鈥� he is more about action than talking. 鈥淎ll they do is talk,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 do that. I do other things. I鈥檓 a job creator鈥� 鈥� a difference that he conceded might set him back in the debates, 聽but which poses a bigger challenge of balancing two time-consuming jobs:
鈥淚t鈥檚 very hard for a very successful person to run for political office 鈥� especially for president,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 get that now more than anything.鈥�
