海角大神

Vice President Joe Biden has long harbored dreams of being president. He鈥檚 run twice before, clearly relishes political life, and has yet to rule out a third try 鈥� even as Hillary Clinton dominates in fundraising and in polls of Democrats.

After the death on May 30 of Mr. Biden鈥檚 beloved elder son, Beau, such talk was put on hold. But in recent days, speculation has begun to soar. New York businessman Jon Cooper, a former Obama fundraising bundler now working on a draft effort to get Biden into the race, told the Monitor Thursday that he puts the probability of Biden running at 80 percent.

鈥淚鈥檓 as convinced as I can be that Joe Biden will be entering the presidential race,鈥� said Mr. Cooper, who bases his assessment on signals from Biden鈥檚 inner circle, though he can't name names.

Cooper has been sounding out potential donors, and already has commitments from five Obama contributors. On Thursday, Cooper signed on as national finance chair for an independent effort called .聽Launched in March, the Chicago-based group has collected more than 100,000 signatures, and now has staff on the ground in early nominating states 鈥� Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The group has also hired a national fundraising firm.

Biden could also find encouragement in a new CNN/ORC national poll released Wednesday. Without lifting a finger, he is running second in the Democratic field, at 16 percent. Though Biden is well behind former Secretary Clinton (57 percent), he鈥檚 in a statistical tie with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont (14 percent), who has been campaigning hard and drawing crowds numbering in the thousands. Perhaps more important, Biden is聽national Democrats' second-choice candidate, with 35 percent saying he's their second choice and 14 percent choosing Sanders. If Clinton were to falter seriously, Democrats' second-choice candidate could be the biggest beneficiary.聽

Earlier this week, a report in The Wall Street Journal quoted Biden friends by name saying that before his death, Beau Biden had encouraged his dad to run, as has Biden鈥檚 other son, Hunter.

Biden will reportedly state his intentions, either way, by early August. When reached by telephone, former Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) of Delaware, a close friend of Biden鈥檚, declined to comment on the vice president鈥檚 thinking. Biden's office also won't comment.聽

Perhaps the biggest clue that Biden might run is that he and his inner circle have done nothing to stop the draft effort, say draft organizers.聽

鈥淲e have had no communications from anyone in the Biden camp saying, 鈥楽top what you鈥檙e doing,鈥� 鈥� William Pierce, executive director of Draft Biden 2016, said in an interview. 鈥淒elaware鈥檚 a small state, and we talk to the same people, and all we鈥檝e heard is a lot of encouraging communication from people who are close to the vice president.鈥�

Pierce鈥檚 group has been holding events in Iowa and other states, and brings a life-size cutout of Biden, called 鈥淐ardboard Joe,鈥� to liven things up. At the group鈥檚 website, DraftBiden2016.com, merchandise is for sale with the logo 鈥淚鈥檓 ridin' with Biden,鈥� featuring the veep driving a convertible and wearing his signature aviator sunglasses.

Pundits are skeptical Biden will run and suggest that the media are inflating the possibility to add interest to the Democratic race. If Biden were to run, they doubt he could beat Clinton for the nomination. On Wednesday, Clinton announced a fundraising haul of $45 million for the first three months of her candidacy, a record for a presidential candidate鈥檚 first-quarter fundraising.

鈥淚t would be a hard catch-up for Biden. He doesn鈥檛 have the infrastructure. Who does he go to?鈥� says veteran Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. 鈥淚鈥檓 not saying it鈥檚 impossible, I鈥檓 just saying it鈥檚 hard.鈥�

Still, Mr. Fenn gets why Biden has kept his options open. Since Harry Truman assumed the presidency after the death of Franklin Roosevelt in 1945, most vice presidents have run for the top job, and a few have reached it. Biden, a senator for 36 years before attaining the vice presidency, has long had that presidential gleam in his eye. He first ran in 1988, then again in 2008.

鈥淚 can die a happy man never having been president of the United States of America,鈥� Biden told GQ magazine in July 2013. 鈥淏ut it doesn鈥檛 mean I won鈥檛 run.鈥�

鈥淛oe鈥檚 a thoroughbred,鈥� says Fenn. 鈥淗e loves this. He sees the gate filling up with other horses, and it鈥檚 hard for him not to head for it.鈥�

What about the age issue? Already in his early 70s, Biden would be the oldest person to assume the presidency. But he鈥檚 not that much older than Clinton, and he's younger than Senator Sanders. Biden supporters say what matters isn鈥檛 age, it鈥檚 energy and enthusiasm.

And Biden is nothing if not enthusiastic 鈥� sometimes to his embarrassment. Who can forget his hot-mike comment in 2010 as Mr. Obama was about to sign the Affordable Care Act: 鈥淭his is a big [expletive] deal.鈥� At a campaign appearance in southern Virginia in 2012, Biden again raised eyebrows when he that Republicans are 鈥済oing to put y'all back in chains."

Biden gaffes are many, but they鈥檙e part of what gives him authenticity in a world of overly scripted candidates, analysts say. His life experiences, including a political career bookended by personal tragedy, give him plenty to go on in connecting with voters. Unlike Clinton, Biden is not wealthy, and he doesn鈥檛 face the challenge on trustworthiness that she does, amid questions over her private e-mails and Clinton Foundation fundraising.

But by getting into the race relatively late, isn鈥檛 there a big chance that Biden would end up only damaging Clinton, the eventual nominee? Fenn, the Democratic strategist, doesn鈥檛 see it that way. 聽

鈥淒emocrats don鈥檛 like coronations,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 like this notion that someone should be given the nomination without having to work hard and go through their paces. So my sense of this is that at the end, it would be good for Hillary to go through this.鈥�