海角大神

Poor Martin O鈥橫alley.

The Democratic former governor of Maryland has been preparing to run for president for years. Literally. Even before the 2012 presidential election, Mr. O鈥橫alley was dropping hints the size of the Chesapeake Bay that he was looking ahead to 2016.

But now that O鈥橫alley鈥檚 announcement is upon us 鈥� 10 a.m. Saturday in Baltimore 鈥� he's almost become Rodney Dangerfield. He can鈥檛 seem to get much respect. He鈥檚 polling, on average, among Democratic primary voters versus a whopping 63.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

At the White House Correspondents鈥� Dinner last month, President Obama was merciless. He referenced Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 well-publicized effort to eat at a Chipotle incognito, then said this: 聽"Not to be outdone, Martin O'Malley kicked things off by going completely unrecognized at a Martin O'Malley campaign event.鈥�

Ouch. (Well, at least O鈥橫alley got a mention.)

Even the smarty-pants at Crowdpac and the FiveThirtyEight blog have been dumping on O鈥橫alley. The former Maryland governor has been trying to position himself to the left of Clinton, but that 鈥渕akes no sense,鈥� .听

First, Clinton is already polling well among liberals, leaving not much room for O鈥橫alley. Add to that the presence of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist, in the race, and O鈥橫alley really gets squeezed.

But there鈥檚 another problem: O鈥橫alley is actually less liberal than Clinton. FiveThirtyEight鈥檚 system shows him a fair bit to her right, based on fundraising data (i.e., no history of raising money on the left) and public statements. O鈥橫alley is a 鈥渕oderate liberal鈥� on issues, to Clinton鈥檚 鈥渉ardcore liberal,鈥� according to the ratings of OnTheIssues.org.

Crowdpac, a nonpartisan company that rates candidates, agrees that O鈥橫alley is less liberal than Clinton, though shows him to be just a little bit more conservative than her.听

Then there鈥檚 Baltimore. Before serving two terms as governor of Maryland, O鈥橫alley was twice elected mayor of Baltimore, and before that was a city councilman. He鈥檚 Mr. Baltimore. But Baltimore hasn鈥檛 had an easy go of it lately, and even though O鈥橫alley left city government more than eight years ago, he鈥檚 had to answer for the city鈥檚 recent turmoil.

Still, instead of pretending he鈥檚 never heard of Baltimore, O鈥橫alley is 鈥渉anging a lantern on his problem鈥� 鈥� a time-honored political technique. His presidential launch from Baltimore seems to be an effort to turn the city鈥檚 problems to his advantage.

Even O鈥橫alley鈥檚 two terms as a governor 鈥� r茅sum茅聽gold for a presidential candidate, one might think 鈥� aren鈥檛 seen as a big plus. He left office with job approval ratings in the low 40s, and his hand-picked successor 鈥� Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (D) 鈥� failed to succeed him last November. The upset victory of Republican Larry Hogan in deep-blue Maryland was seen as a slap at O鈥橫alley鈥檚 record, especially on taxes, and frustration over O鈥橫alley鈥檚 presidential ambitions.

But despite it all, there are plenty of reasons for O鈥橫alley to give the presidential thing a shot:

• He鈥檚 a first-time candidate, unlike Clinton. So he could benefit from Clinton fatigue.

• He looks presidential 鈥� especially in contrast to the perpetually rumpled Senator Sanders 鈥� and has a photogenic family. He also has a fun side, as a musician in a Celtic Rock Band called 鈥淥鈥橫alley鈥檚 March.鈥�

• There鈥檚 plenty of room for more Democratic contenders 鈥� especially compared with the Republican field, which is so crowded that only half will fit on the debate stage.听

• Early polls aren鈥檛 100 percent determinative. Even though Clinton appears to have a lock on the Democratic nomination, there are no guarantees.

• He has a rich record as governor on which to campaign. If O鈥橫alley chooses to ditch the 鈥渕ore liberal than Hillary鈥� approach, he could go back to his real persona as a technocrat. That may bring on , whose demeanor left some voters cold.听But O鈥橫alley鈥檚 has won accolades and attention from around the world. Maybe he can make his geeky side chic.

• O鈥橫alley could end up as Clinton鈥檚 running mate. Joe Biden, Al Gore, and George H.W. Bush all wound up on their party鈥檚 ticket after running unsuccessfully for the nomination. In Mr. Bush鈥檚 case, the vice presidency became a springboard to the presidency.

• And if O鈥橫alley doesn鈥檛 make the ticket, he will still have boosted his national profile. That could help him toward another run in 2020 or 2024. O鈥橫alley is only in his early 50s, so time is on his side.听

There鈥檚 another piece of good news for O鈥橫alley: Expectations about his chances in 2016 are so low he has nowhere to go but up. In the early nominating contests, he could beat expectations. And then he will face the real test: Can he pull together the money and organization to make a serious play for the nomination? It all starts on Saturday.听