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Sen. Max Baucus, who helped draft President Obama鈥檚 signature health-care law and who is leading a drive to reform America鈥檚 tax code, won鈥檛 seek a seventh term in the US Senate in 2014.

The Montana Democrat has infuriated some in his party over the years by walking a centrist political line in a state that regularly backs Republicans for president but has a long history of elevating members of either party to other statewide offices.

But he鈥檚 been a consistent political survivor who will likely bequeath his seat to yet another Democrat, former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, should the extremely popular Mr. Schweitzer opt to enter the race.

Senator Baucus recently drew the ire of Democrats, including the campaign organization built by Mr. Obama鈥檚 presidential campaign, by calling the implementation of the president鈥檚 health-care law a looming 鈥渢rain wreck鈥� and for voting against expanding background checks for firearms sales.

At the same time, Baucus has shown his political mettle in turning back a host of conservative challengers over the past three decades.

鈥淓very six years, Democratic Sen. Max Baucus lands on Republicans鈥� target list,鈥� wrote the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in an analysis of the race, 鈥渁nd every six years they are disappointed.鈥�

The retirement is less about politics and more about the Montanan鈥檚 personal situation, says David Parker, a professor at Montana State University, who is writing a book about the 2012 Senate election in Montana.

Recently remarried and already the Big Sky State鈥檚 longest-serving senator at age 71, Baucus has seen many of his longtime colleagues fade from the Senate over the last two terms, Mr. Parker says. Even with $5 million in campaign funds already in the bank, the Senate Finance Committee chairman could have had a grueling campaign on his hands, recalling the bitter and expensive contest between Sen. Jon Tester (D) and then-Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) in 2012.

鈥淵ou look at what Jon Tester went through,鈥� says Parker, noting that Baucus worked tirelessly to help his friend and colleague. 鈥淭hat was a tough race. Jon worked hard and Denny worked hard. When you鈥檙e 71, you might say, 鈥業s it worth it to me?鈥� 鈥�

The politics that may have pushed Baucus to stand down in 2014, from tax reform to guns to the health-care law he helped birth, are murky, but what happens next in Montana is rather straightforward, says Parker.

鈥淚f Schweitzer comes in and decides to run, I don鈥檛 see a path forward for the Republicans. If he doesn鈥檛? Anything could happen 鈥� for both sides,鈥� Parker says. 鈥淚t all begins and ends with Brian Schweitzer.鈥�

With or without Schweitzer, Democrats see the seat as one they鈥檒l fight to keep.

鈥�Democrats have had a great deal of electoral success in Montana over the last decade, and I am confident that will continue,鈥� said Sen. Michael Bennet (D) of Colorado, the head of his party鈥檚 committee charged with electing Democratic senators, in a statement. 鈥淒emocrats built an unprecedented ground game in Montana in 2012 when Senator Tester was reelected, and we will continue to invest all the resources necessary to hold this seat.鈥�

Republicans, for their part, see Baucus's exit as proof that the president鈥檚 health-care law will spell doom for many of the seven Democrats having to defend seats in states won by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

"Vulnerable Democrats will face voters just as ObamaCare's tax hikes, mandates, fees, penalties, and red-tape bureaucracy take shape over the next eight months, and Senator Baucus' retirement reflects that political reality,鈥� said Rob Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a statement. 鈥淭he 2014 electoral map is in free-fall for Democrats, who were already facing a daunting challenge."

A survey from the liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling in February found Baucus beating either of the two announced Republican candidates (former state Senate majority leader Corey Stapleton and state Rep. Champ Edmunds) but with more voters viewing Baucus unfavorably than favorably. Moreover, Schweitzer outstripped Baucus in a hypothetical matchup between the state鈥檚 deepest-rooted political figures.

While Schweitzer has previously soft-pedaled his ambitions in Washington, reported that the man famous for his bolo ties was 鈥渓eaning toward鈥� a Senate campaign.

Parker says the move makes sense for Schweitzer if he does, as has been widely rumored, have designs on the White House.

鈥淚f he does have presidential ambitions, [it would help] to do a stint in the Senate,鈥� Parker says. 鈥淗e has to build that national recognition and national fundraising networks, which is something that is difficult for him to come by coming from such a small state like Montana.鈥�

Baucus has been an effective champion of Montana鈥檚 interests in Washington 鈥� from exporting beef to Asia to funneling federal dollars into public projects in the Big Sky to the state鈥檚 agriculture priorities, the last of which Baucus reportedly raised in the middle of 鈥済rand bargain鈥� fiscal negotiations with Vice President Joe Biden in 2011. But he also has many critics who see him as a creature of Washington, a senator whose former staffers are peppered throughout the lobbying industry鈥檚 top firms.

"Good bye, Senator K Street,鈥� said Stephanie Taylor, a co-founder of the liberal Progressive Change Campaign Committee, a group that targeted Baucus with negative advertisements after his gun bill vote on background checks.

鈥淢ontana will finally have a chance to have a senator with its best interests at heart,鈥� Ms. Taylor said in a statement, 鈥渁nd we hope Brian Schweitzer jumps into the race immediately."