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Massachusetts has long been regarded as a liberal stronghold, but the special election to replace Sen. Edward Kennedy in the US Senate is showing Massachusetts has a more conservative streak as well.

State Sen. Scott Brown (R) is proving to be a major challenge for Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), who was heavily favored early in the race; a poll released late Thursday had Mr. Brown leading Ms. Coakley by 4 percentage points.

Brown鈥檚 success may have to do with his ability to appeal to independent voters in the Bay State 鈥� 51 percent of voters here are unenrolled.

True, Democrats outnumber Republicans 3-to-1, and the state can be counted on to elect Democratic presidential candidates by consistently wide margins 鈥� won here with a 26-point margin in 2008, by 25 points in 2004.

It鈥檚 results like these that routinely place Massachusetts as one of the top states for Democrats in rankings of party affiliation. Last year, a named Massachusetts the third-most Democratic state, behind only Washington D.C. and Rhode Island.

Long history of GOP governors

But Massachusetts voters also gave Republicans the key to the governors鈥� office for 16 straight years, from 1990 to 2006.

Moreover, Senate races have historically been tight when the Republican candidate is moderate enough to appeal to centrist voters. Sen. John Kerry had close races against Ray Shamie in 1984, Jim Rappaport in 1990, and Bill Weld in 1996 鈥� all of whom earned at least 40 percent of the vote.

Senator Kennedy saw his toughest challenge in 1994 against Mitt Romney, who would later be Massachusetts鈥� governor and an unsuccessful candidate for president. While Mr. Romney eventually shifted further to the right during his 2008 presidential bid, Massachusetts voters considered him a moderate Republican in his statewide campaigns. In fact, until 1993, Romney was registered as an independent.

For Coakley and Brown, it鈥檚 the state鈥檚 independents who will likely determine the outcome of the race.

鈥淭he majority of registered voters now are independents,鈥� says David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, which conducted Thursday鈥檚 poll. 鈥淒espite the fact that they are people who say 鈥� they don鈥檛 want to be tied to one party, independents have emerged as the political party in Massachusetts now. It鈥檚 really about the independent voter.鈥�

Most independents favor Brown

Suffolk鈥檚 poll shows 65 percent of voters who identify themselves as independent favor Brown.

鈥淚ndependents are leaning heavily toward the Republican party,鈥� confirms Charles Stewart, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.

Brown has been more proactive in going after independent voters, addressing issues like family, security, and regional concerns, which are typically hot button issues for independents.

鈥淚 am running in the name of all independent-thinking citizens, whether they are Democrats, Republicans, or unenrolled, to take on one-party rule,鈥� Brown wrote in a Boston Globe published Friday.

His focus on homeland security, in particular, is 鈥渁 perfect issue to lead with鈥� to attract independent voters, says Stewart.

Coakley sticks with Democratic base

In contrast, Coakley has stuck close to her Democratic base, focusing on abortion rights, healthcare reform, and, more recently, the economy.

鈥淪cott Brown says it鈥檚 okay that CEOs can line their pockets and forget about what taxpayers did last year,鈥� Coakley told the crowd at a campaign rally with former President Bill Clinton Friday. 鈥淪cott Brown will fight for the wealthy and for Wall Street, and I鈥檓 going to fight for you.鈥�

In fact, Coakley鈥檚 support of the healthcare reform bill might hurt her with independents, 56 percent of whom oppose the proposed national legislation.

Still, while independents may prefer Brown, they are also historically much less likely to turn out to vote.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e half the electorate, but they鈥檙e not half the voting power,鈥� says Stewart. 鈥淭he great middle is tending toward Brown, so then the question is who turns out.鈥�

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