海角大神

Within a matter of hours, the Democrats have seen three key figures 鈥� two in Washington, one outside 鈥� turn themselves into lame ducks. Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, and Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado, have all announced they鈥檙e not running for reelection.

That鈥檚 mostly bad news for the Democrats, who just a year ago were riding high on the impending inauguration of Barack Obama and greatly expanded majorities in both houses of Congress. Now, the atmosphere has altered dramatically, as President Obama struggles to keep his job approval at or near 50 percent and his party works to minimize its losses in congressional races this November. Democrats can probably kiss their 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate majority goodbye.

The one bright spot for Democrats is that Senator Dodd鈥檚 seat in Connecticut now has an excellent shot at staying in Democratic hands, with the expected announcement Wednesday of popular state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal聽(D) that he will run for the seat. Until his announcement, Dodd was the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent of the cycle, owing to perceptions that he had lost touch with his home state. But as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Dodd will now spend the next year as a lame duck, which could hurt his clout in the battle for financial regulation reform.

The surprise announcement by Governor Ritter of Colorado does not directly affect the Senate, of course, but it does add to the sense that the Democrats are in retreat 鈥� especially in a part of the country, the Mountain West, where the party had made dramatic inroads in recent years. Senator Dorgan, a Democratic stalwart in a red state, also caught his party by surprise in deciding to retire. Dorgan, a three-term senator with a total of 40 years in public service, comes from the old school that believes in working across the aisle. His seat is now in the 鈥渓ean Republican鈥� column in the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Obama's role in raiding the Senate

All in all, says Jennifer Duffy, the Senate and statehouse watcher at Cook Political, it鈥檚 been a crazy year, politically. Obama himself is partly to blame, as he raided the Senate for Cabinet picks, not to mention the fact that his own former Senate seat and that of Vice President Joe Biden could go Republican in November.

鈥淭he cycle started with us asking, 鈥楬ow many more seats can the Democrats actually pick up?鈥� to a point where, now all we talk about is how many seats they鈥檙e going to lose,鈥� says Ms. Duffy. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e seen this big shift in the political environment and seats that were only a little bit vulnerable becoming more vulnerable, like Colorado.鈥�

She is referring to Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who was appointed to the seat by Governor Ritter after Obama named Sen. Ken Salazar to head the Interior Department.

Also vulnerable is Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) of Arkansas. 鈥淎nd having the majority leader [Harry Reid of Nevada] in not great shape, that鈥檚 a pretty weird cycle,鈥� says Duffy.

A GOP Senate takeover? Not likely 鈥� so far

With Democrats controlling 60 Senate seats out of 100, Republicans need 11 Democratic-held seats in play to have a shot at taking over the majority, which they don鈥檛 have. What鈥檚 more, Democrats have a chance at taking over five Republican-held seats 鈥� in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Louisiana 鈥� which makes the Republicans鈥� chances all the more remote. But the year is young.

For now, though, Democrats 鈥� including the president 鈥� are taking stock of the departures of Dodd and Dorgan, who between them have won eight six-year terms in the Senate. The White House issued statements on both men, calling Dorgan a 鈥渢rusted leader for the people of his state鈥� and praising Dodd for 鈥渁 remarkable record of achievement.鈥�

Dodd鈥檚 departure was simultaneously surprising and unsurprising. Dodd loves being a senator, as he noted in his retirement announcement, and it would have been easy to see him go out fighting. But his reelection prospects were bleak, after some damaging events. When he ran in the 2008 presidential cycle, he moved his family temporarily to Iowa, which the people of Connecticut did not appreciate. He was also hurt by the revelation that he had received VIP treatment on a mortgage from tainted lender Countrywide Financial, even though Dodd insisted he didn鈥檛 know he was getting a favor and was cleared of wrongdoing by the Senate Ethics Committee.

Dorgan is being lauded as a progressive populist who has quietly but forcefully advocated for his causes, particularly economic.

鈥淭here鈥檚 just a fundamental decency about him,鈥� says Jonathan Rowe, a former staffer. 鈥淗e was always looking for opportunities to reach across the aisle, to diminish the rancor.鈥�

[Editor's note: The subhead has been changed to accurately characterize how the two senators' retirements affect the Democrats' Senate prospects in 2010.]

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