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In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1, Massachusetts should be a reliable 鈥測es鈥� vote on healthcare reform issues.

But the Bay State could again be complicating issues for Senate leaders hoping to make their way to the crucial 60 votes needed to defeat a Republican filibuster on a healthcare bill.

Massachusetts holds its primary tomorrow for the special election to fill the seat vacated by the death of Edward Kennedy. The two Democratic frontrunners have both expressed reservations about voting for healthcare reform if it significantly limits access to abortion.

That is possible. Monday, the Senate was considering an amendment by Sen. Ben Nelson (D) of Nebraska that would prohibit private health plans that receive federal subsidies from covering abortions. Abortion-rights advocates say the amendment is too harsh.

The House passed a similar provision 鈥� the Stupak amendment 鈥� in November.

Mass. complications

This is the second time that the senate seat formerly held by Mr. Kennedy was been an issue in the national healthcare reform debate. When Kennedy passed away in August, Democrats were concerned that healthcare reform could come to a vote before the special election 鈥� depriving them of a vital vote in the Senate.

That hurdle was cleared when Massachusetts changed its election laws in September to allow an interim replacement.

Now, state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), the favorite in the five-month race, has insisted that she will not vote for a bill that contains restrictions on abortion funding. But she says she believes the Nelson amendment doesn鈥檛 have enough support to pass.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe there are enough votes in the Senate, regardless of what the talk is right now,鈥� Ms. Coakley said Thursday. 鈥淚t is been made clear by people in the House, and in the Senate, frankly 鈥� and even by the president 鈥� that that鈥檚 not going to be part of the debate, that it shouldn鈥檛 be part of this debate.鈥�

Yet the staunch abortion-rights stance by Coakley and her top Democratic challenger, US Rep. Michael Capuano, is a part of that equation, says Dan Payne, a Massachusetts-based Democratic media consultant.

鈥淭his race has made Washington aware of the impact of that abortion amendment,鈥� Mr. Payne says. 鈥淚 think Martha will hold her ground. It will be hard for her to walk away from that.鈥�

Coakley vs. Capuano

Mr. Capuano is Coakley鈥檚 closest rival. He trials her by 15 percentage points with 10 percent of voters still undecided, according to the most recent poll of likely Democratic voters, on Nov. 23.

Capuano, after initially criticizing Coakley for vowing to vote against the bill if it contained abortion restrictions, has since reversed his position to one that closely mirrors his rival鈥檚.

鈥淚 firmly believe there will be a bill we can vote for,鈥� he told the Monitor at a campaign event Thursday. 鈥淵ou force the issue, and you stand your principles. You don鈥檛 cave in. That鈥檚 exactly how we got a strong public option in the House and how we鈥檒l get the abortion issue out and how we will keep a strong public option.鈥�

If the bill contains restrictions on funding for abortions or lacks a public option, 鈥渋t鈥檚 not healthcare reform,鈥� he said.

Capuano voted against the Stupak amendment in the House, but ultimately voted for the final version of the House bill, despite its inclusion of the Stupak amendment.

Even if an abortion amendment was included in the final bill, both top Democratic candidates would probably vote for it 鈥� regardless of their current stand, says Stephen Ansolabehere, professor of government at Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass.

鈥淭here would be enormous pressure form the White House,鈥� he says.

The other challengers

The two other Democratic candidates, Alan Khazei, cofounder of City Year, a nationwide community service program for young adults, and Steve Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics, have both stated they would support a healthcare reform bill regardless of the abortion issue.

The general election will be held Jan. 19, and while 鈥渢here are two respectable Republican challengers,鈥� they鈥檙e an afterthought,鈥� says Professor Ansolabehere. 鈥淭here aren鈥檛 that many states where the Republican Party is in quite the state of disarray as in Massachusetts, where really the primary election is the election.鈥�

See also:

Obama鈥檚 Senate visit moves Dems closer to healthcare reform deal

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