Can Obama rescue Corzine in New Jersey governor's race?
| New York
When President Obama travels to New Jersey Wednesday night, he might think he鈥檚 running for office in the Garden State because Gov. Jon Corzine (D), in an effort to win votes, has erected billboards extolling 鈥�Obama Corzine.鈥�
But Mr. Obama鈥檚 billboards and visits are integral to Corzine鈥檚 strategy against Republican challenger and former US attorney Chris Christie.
鈥淐orzine is trying to push the ties to himself and the president with Democratic voters,鈥� says Patrick Murray, director of polling at the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey. 鈥淭his is to get those Democratic voters disenchanted with Corzine and upset with high property taxes to forget about that and vote one for the team, headed by Barack Obama.鈥�
Obama is not the only Democratic dignitary to hit the state for Corzine鈥檚 campaign. Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton have come visiting, too.
Polls show the strategy is having an impact, says Mr. Murray. In August, a Monmouth/Gannett poll found 17 percent of Democratic voters planned to vote for the Republican Mr. Christie. In the latest poll released Tuesday, that was down to 8 percent.
鈥淢ore importantly, people who planned not to vote now plan to do so because it is being seen as a referendum on Obama who has an 87 percent approval rating in the state,鈥� says Murray.
Despite the outside help, the race is still expected to be close. Voters are seething over high property taxes, and have put their thumbs down on Corzine proposals to increase gasoline taxes and unload the Turnpike.
鈥淭he race for governor in New Jersey is very unclear, very murky,鈥� says Lee Miringoff of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. 鈥淭he winner may not break 50 percent of the vote.鈥�
One big reason for the political fog in the Jersey race is independent candidate Chris Daggett, a former regional administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) who has won the endorsement of the Star-Ledger, the state鈥檚 largest paper. In the latest Monmouth/Gannett poll, Mr. Daggett attracts 14 percent of the vote, double his early October showing.
Some of Daggett鈥檚 proposals 鈥� such as lowering property taxes by adding a sales tax 鈥� have gained traction with voters.
However, Murray says he thinks Daggett鈥檚 campaign has probably peaked. 鈥淚f he was able to build on the splash created by his property tax proposal, he would need to be over 20 percent of the vote at this point in time,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd he does not have the money you need for the most expensive media markets to keep his name out there.鈥�
Candidates have to run ads on New York and Philadelphia stations.
Some of Daggett鈥檚 votes may be the result of voter disgust over the brass-knuckle tactics. 鈥淸Corzine] has talked about Christie鈥檚 ethics, his weight, and that he did not have a plan to balance the state鈥檚 budget. By last week we had a tie race,鈥� says Cliff Zukin, a professor of public policy at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.
Corzine, a former Wall Street investment banker who is bankrolling his own campaign, has been spending $1 million a week on advertising since the primary, says Mr. Zukin.
Meanwhile, Christie has been hamstrung by only having $19.5 million in public campaign financing and having to save funds for the last stretch of campaigning.
Obama鈥檚 visit will be to Bergen County, across the Hudson River from New York. 鈥淗istorically, a Republican must win the county to win the state,鈥� says Murray.
Whoever wins inherits an $8 billion state budget deficit. 鈥淭he only thing growing is public employment,鈥� says Mr. Zukin. 鈥淚t makes you wonder why anyone wants this job.鈥�
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