海角大神

Washington may well be on the verge of becoming a one-party town, with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama looking strong to capture the presidency next Tuesday and Democrats poised to expand their majorities in both houses of Congress.

The history of one-party rule in America is fraught with triumphs and peril.

Franklin Roosevelt swept into power in 1933 at a time of economic depression, and, with a Democratic congressional majority behind him, was able to enact a raft of legislation in just a few months. But in his second term, President Roosevelt overreached and ran afoul of his own party.

Two more recent presidents, Democrats Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, also began their tenure with congressional majorities 鈥� in Carter鈥檚 case, quite sizable ones 鈥� but with both men, the relationship grew tense. Carter enjoyed some success with Congress, but his outside-the-Beltway style, and the aides he brought with him from Georgia, often clashed with the Washington insiders.

With Clinton, the failures of his first two years 鈥� fueled by a cantankerous Democratic majority 鈥� cost his party control of both houses in the first mid-term elections. It was only when Clinton faced Republican majorities in Congress that his presidency took off.

For Senator Obama, should he become president, the most relevant historical example is President Franklin Roosevelt, says presidential historian Robert Dallek.

鈥淲e were in dire straits,鈥� says Mr. Dallek. 鈥淎s Roosevelt said himself in his first inaugural, 鈥楾his country is asking for action and action now.鈥� That鈥檚 what he gave them. In the first 100 days, he passed 15 major pieces of legislation. He couldn鈥檛 have done it unless he had a crisis and strong party support.鈥�

Obama, too, appears poised to push initiatives in a range of areas, including a second economic stimulus package, healthcare reform, changes to tax policy, and energy reform. He has also pledged to begin, right away, the process of withdrawing US troops from Iraq.

But Democrats say they are well aware that, even with expected strong majorities in both houses, there are no guarantees. The nation鈥檚 economic woes could put healthcare reform, an expensive proposition, on hold. By definition, a large majority means a broad coalition, with conservative Democrats side-by-side with liberals, all keeping an eye on their voters back home and working toward reelection. Democrats know that holding the coalition together will take work, and that they won鈥檛 necessarily have much time.

鈥淭he point is, if it doesn鈥檛 work, then two years later, voters can change it,鈥� says Dallek. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the advantage of this congressional system, in which the House has to be elected every two years.鈥�

Still, in an election year that has gone strikingly the Democrats鈥� way, it is looking increasingly possible that the party can win large enough majorities to weather some setbacks and not lose their majorities in two years.

In addition 鈥� in contrast with Clinton鈥檚 first two years, when the Republicans were organized to take over the House after 40 years as the minority 鈥� this year鈥檚 Republican Party is in full-blown crisis. There is no 2008 version of Newt Gingrich, working the back benches, preparing for the next GOP revolution.

The conviction Monday of Sen. Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska for lying on financial disclosure forms puts his reelection in doubt, and could bring the Democrats 鈥� currently holding a slim 51-seat majority in the Senate 鈥� closer to capturing the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster.

If that happens, Republicans will lose a key tool to check the Democrats鈥� power. Of course, there is no guarantee that a 60-vote majority would always be filibuster-proof. After all, one senator who caucuses with the Democrats - independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman 鈥� has been one of Republican nominee John McCain鈥檚 biggest backers in the campaign. Other conservative Democrats could also peel off on some issues.

Still, the American public is showing unprecedented support for one-party rule in Washington, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Fifty percent of likely voters say they would prefer that the same party control both the White House and Congress, a new high for that poll. Thirty percent said they wanted split-party rule.

Michael Waldman, a former speechwriter for Clinton, sees a different dynamic at play in Obama鈥檚 relations with Congress, if he wins the presidency, from what his old boss experienced.

鈥淚f the Democrats gain seats, they鈥檒l attribute it to Obama coattails, which Clinton did not have,鈥� says Mr. Waldman. Back in 1992, when Clinton won the presidency, 鈥渢here was a sense that Democrats only got kudos for standing up to the president of their own party.鈥�

Now, he adds, 鈥渢he Democratic leadership of Congress in both chambers seems very aware that their fortunes are tied to the success of a Democratic president, if there is one.鈥�

Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution scholar, says that if elected, Obama and his team will have to engage in a lot of negotiations to keep his congressional majority 鈥渨ell-oiled and functioning.鈥� That is especially true, he says, when the party in power wins a lot of seats in areas that traditionally favor the other party, in this case, the Republicans.

鈥淗e鈥檚 going to have to woo everyone,鈥� says Mr. Hess, author of a new workbook for the president-elect, whoever that is. 鈥淭here may be Democrats coming in who are more conservatively oriented, and who become an important part of his constituency.鈥�

Hess recalls that soon after Carter鈥檚 inauguration, Democratic House speaker 鈥�Tip鈥� O鈥橬eill and White House chief of staff Hamilton Jordan exchanged words 鈥渢hat could not be repeated in 海角大神.鈥�

鈥淭hey were at each other鈥檚 throats,鈥� he says. 鈥淪o it doesn鈥檛 necessarily follow that everything goes swimmingly.鈥�