海角大神

The debate is on, despite the continuing negotiations on Capitol Hill over the nation鈥檚 financial crisis.

John McCain has finally agreed to join Barack Obama on stage here in Oxford, Miss. And the encounter has all of the earmarks of a major game-changer.

That鈥檚 not just because of the nation鈥檚 economic crisis and the drama of the last day and a half over whether McCain would attend. Tonight鈥檚 encounter has the potential to rival the televised contest of 1960 between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon that tipped the electorate in favor of the Democrat, debate experts say, or the 1980 face-off between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan that helped shift the momentum in the GOP鈥檚 favor.

The race between Barack Obama and John McCain remains tight. Some voters in both parties are still looking to be reassured about their own candidate鈥檚 leadership qualities and temperament. Alliances within each party鈥檚 base are also in flux: some rural voters, traditional Republicans, are leaning toward Obama. Some white women voters, traditionally more Democratic, are favoring McCain.

Add into the mix a column of 鈥渦ndecided voters鈥� as large as 8 percent, and this series of debates kicking off with foreign policy here are expected to go down in the halls of debate fame.

"All of the factors are in play this year that would suggest that these truly are going to be significant debates,鈥� says Mitchell McKinney, a professor of communication at the University of Missouri.Top on that list of factors is familiarity. Both Obama and McCain have work to do in shoring up support even within their own parties. As well known as McCain is, he鈥檚 never been the darling of the Republican base. While his choice of Sarah Palin has helped shore up much of that support, there are still Republicans who wonder if he has the temperament to lead. Obama, on the other hand, still has to convince some Hillary Clinton supporters that he can represent them as well. And he needs to address concerns about his experience.

鈥淧eople will be looking at: 鈥業s Obama experienced enough, can he really command?鈥� With McCain it鈥檚: 鈥楥an he really relate to us on economic issues, is he more than just a one-hit- wonder on this country-first thing?鈥� 鈥� says Professor McKinney. 鈥淰oters are looking to become more comfortable with the candidates and for a fleshing-out of their characters.鈥�

Indeed, while issues and the candidate鈥檚 command of them matters, some debate experts argue that what鈥檚 just as important, if not more, is the way candidates handle themselves under pressure: what kind of a leader they鈥檒l be when the heats on. The format of Friday鈥檚 foreign policy debate is designed, in part, to help people get a sense of that. It鈥檚 broken into 10-minute segments. At the end of each there will be a kind of free-for-all where the candidates can challenge each other in any way they want.

鈥淭hat is not only going to make this history-making, but that鈥檚 the point where we鈥檒l see the mettle of each person as a leader tested,鈥� says Kathryn Olson, a professor of communication at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. 鈥淢cCain himself has said he has a temper that can make him impulsive, so I suspect Obama will try to exploit that. Obama has been seen as a little too button-down and aloof, and especially with what鈥檚 happening with the economy, Obama is going to have to show he can connect with real people鈥檚 woes.鈥�

It鈥檚 not just what a candidate says that matters, as Vice President Al Gore discovered in his 2000 debate against George W. Bush. It鈥檚 their attitude. In the first debate with then Governor Bush in Boston, almost every debate expert gave the round to Mr. Gore for the quality of his rhetoric and his intellectual ability as a debater. But the media, and eventually the public, decided that Bush got the round 鈥� in part because of Gore鈥檚 exasperated sighs, his rolling of the eyes, and shaking of his head in dismay. It made him appear arrogant.

Add to that the importance of coping with the inevitable 鈥淲here鈥檚 the beef?鈥� or 鈥淵ou鈥檙e no Jack Kennedy鈥� one-liner that aides in both camps have probably already cooked up.

鈥淏oth candidates need to be wary of their nonverbal temperament and levels of discomfort,鈥� says Timothy O鈥橠onnell a professor at the University of Mary Washington and chairman of the collegiate National Debate Tournament. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important the way they react to the one-liner: whether they can exhibit authenticity and wit and not appear stiff or knocked-back on their heels.鈥�

That鈥檚 also part of the expectations game. Both parties have spent the last few months trying to weave a positive narrative about their candidate. Republicans paint McCain as the maverick whose strength is foreign policy. The Democrats tout Obama as a change agent, whose strength is problem-solving. Each side has also been busy creating negative narratives about their opponents. Democrats have painted McCain as out of touch and old. Republicans portray Obama as an arrogant elitist. The gaffes during debates that end up with real political significance are the ones that feed into those narratives 鈥� positive and negative.

鈥淥bama can鈥檛 be disengaged, anything that shows even a hint of elitism; and it may sound too simple, but McCain can鈥檛 have a 鈥榮enior moment,' 鈥� says debate expert Allan Louden, a professor of communication at Wake Forest University.

McCain is also known as a better, more down-to-earth debater who鈥檚 capable of skewering an opponent with a smile. Obama is seen as more awkward behind the podium 鈥� too wordy and sometimes intellectual 鈥� but someone鈥檚 who鈥檚 improved throughout the primary season.

鈥淥bama has to get through this debate coming off as just as qualified and just as able to handle foreign policy concerns as his opponent 鈥� since foreign policy is supposed to be McCain鈥檚 strength. Then we might be giving the debate round to Obama,鈥� says McKinney. 鈥淢cCain has been telling people he's going to wipe the floor with Obama 鈥� the expectations game is such that McCain cannot make a mistake."

A simple gaffe, even a misstatement, can cost someone a debate 鈥� if not an election 鈥� as Gerald Ford found out in 1976 in his debate with Jimmy Carter. At one point, he said that 鈥�Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination.鈥� He meant the people of Eastern Europe were still independent, despite their governments. During the debate, most viewers seemed to understand that.
鈥淚mmediately after that debate polls showed that by a 44 to 35 percent margin more viewers thought Ford outperformed Carter. And by a 54 to 36 percent margin most viewers preferred Ford,鈥� says Professor Olson.

But after the media hammered away at the mistake, which played into the narrative that Democrats had been weaving that Ford was out of touch, the polls shifted dramatically. 鈥淏y a 61 percent to 19 percent margin, they believed Carter had won the debate and by a 54 to 37 they expressed a preference for him,鈥� says Olson.

With the advent of the Internet and the ever growing blogosphere, the ability of the formal, mainstream media to influence perceptions may be dulled some, according to Olson. But other experts say the Internet also may increase the 鈥減erception factor鈥� exponentially.

鈥淭here鈥檚 going to be hundreds of people out there trying to find the gaffe that will fly,鈥� says Professor Louden. 鈥淭here are multiple potential gaffes in any debate, it just depends on what story takes wing.鈥�