Taliban topples Kunduz: what that means for Afghanistan's security
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| Washington
The Taliban's successful campaign to seize control of a major city in the far north of Afghanistan is a strong symbol of the shortcomings of the country's security forces. But it is also a warning sign that, in the long run, could prove an important teachable moment for Afghan forces and the American troops who train them, say top former military officers who served in the country.
United States-trained Afghan troops are now engaged in a closely-watched urban battle to try to retake Kunduz, the nation鈥檚 sixth-largest city and capital of Kunduz Province.
After trying to topple the city on a number of occasions, the Taliban succeeded Monday. Hundreds of prisoners escaped from the local prison, and hundreds of thousands of civilians locked themselves in their homes in anticipation of tough street-to-street fighting.
Monday marked the first time since the US military entered Afghanistan after 9/11 that a provincial capital has fallen to the Taliban. That 鈥渉as huge symbolic importance, and that鈥檚 why there鈥檚 a huge amount of attention on it,鈥 says retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, who commanded US forces in Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005.
鈥淭he actual significance of it is another question,鈥 he adds.
For starters, it does suggest that the ability of Afghan National Security Forces to defend key regions of the country is in question, Mr. Barno notes. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a good sign from my point of view in terms of the strength of the ANSF.鈥
Taliban strength in the north has grown as the US and Germany have ramped down forces during the past two years, says Barno, now a distinguished practitioner in residence at American University鈥檚 School of International Service in Washington.聽
鈥淣ow [the Taliban] only have to deal with Afghan forces,鈥 he notes.
But that fact could prove instructive for US forces, he and other analysts add.聽
鈥淚t reveals that the Taliban is stronger than we thought in some ways, but it does so at a time when we still have the flexibility to adapt our presence in the region,鈥 says Paul Scharre, a former special operations reconnaissance team leader in the 3rd Ranger Battalion, with multiple tours to Iraq and Afghanistan.
The question is whether that鈥檚 advisable, he adds. The current commander of US forces in Afghanistan, Gen. John Campbell, recently requested that US troops levels in the country remain at 10,000 beyond the end of 2016, The Wall Street Journal reported last week.
鈥淏ut ultimately, the Afghans have to be able to fight and defend their country on their own,鈥 notes Mr. Scharre, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
The fall of Kunduz could help Afghan and US forces address critical weaknesses.
鈥淥ne thing that needs to happen is to take a hard look at your intelligence infrastructure across the country,鈥 Barno says. 鈥淭here should have been the ability to collect the intelligence to indicate that this attack is in the offing. It shouldn鈥檛 be a surprise.鈥
The fall of Kunduz may also be a good time to look at whether the Afghan Army needs to shuffle assets around, he adds. In the immediate aftermath of the Taliban takeover, the government in Kabul rushed well-regarded Afghan commandos to the region, for example.
That鈥檚 to be expected, but 鈥渕ilitarily, you want to make sure you know what the situation is before you throw a bunch of forces into it,鈥 Barno notes. This includes assessing the level of training and capability of Afghan forces posted up there. 鈥淎re there enough forces, and were those forces trained and led properly?鈥 he adds.
Finally, it鈥檚 worth keeping in mind that up until this point, there have been essentially two models for dealing with non-governed spaces in the post-9/11 world, Scharre argues.
鈥淔irst, you can send in 100,000 troops in and occupy and try to rebuild it 鈥 that鈥檚 a model that has costs millions in dollars and thousands in lives,鈥 he says.聽
The other model is drones and air attacks, 鈥渨hich don鈥檛 seem to ever fully solve the problem,鈥 Scharre adds. 鈥淚n Syria, in Anbar, Iraq we鈥檙e grappling with this.鈥澛
Kunduz could underline the need to consider new models, he says 鈥 鈥渙ne where US soldiers aren鈥檛 fighting, but some level of support is reasonable.鈥