海角大神

Senior Pentagon officials are making no secret of the fact that despite the apparent stepped-up drumbeat to war with Iran, they believe a strike on the country is 鈥渘ot prudent鈥� right now.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, put this view 鈥� held by many in the Department of Defense 鈥� in perhaps the strongest terms yet this week.听

True, Israel could bomb Iran and delay the country鈥檚 ability to create nuclear weapons 鈥減robably for a couple of years,鈥� General Dempsey told CNN 厂耻苍诲补测.听

The problem is that many of the Iranian targets 鈥� buried deeply underground 鈥� would be 鈥渂eyond the reach鈥� of the Israeli military, in what Dempsey called a 鈥渮one of immunity.鈥�

What鈥檚 more, Iran would likely retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz using mines and swarming boats. It might also activate proxy cells to attack not just Israel, but possibly US interests in Iraq or US troops in Afghanistan.听

RELATED 鈥撎�What would happen if Iran had the bomb?听

Precisely how Iran would chose to respond to a strike is 鈥渢he question with which we all wrestle,鈥� Dempsey said, 鈥渁nd the reason we think that it鈥檚 not prudent at this point to decide to attack Iran.鈥�

Equally important, senior defense officials emphasize, while it鈥檚 clear that Iran aspires to nuclear technology, it is far from certain whether the country is intent on actually weaponizing this technology,听

This was the finding of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI)鈥檚 recent assessment on security threats facing the United States. Right now, Iran is 鈥渕ore than capable of producing enough highly-enriched uranium for a weapon if it鈥檚 political leaders 鈥� specifically the supreme leader himself 鈥� chooses to do so,鈥� DNI head James Clapper told the Senate Armed Services Committee February 16.

Yet so far they do not appear to have made that choice, Lt. General Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers in the same hearing.

鈥淭he agency assesses Iran as unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict,鈥� he said, concluding that though the possibility of Iran building a nuclear weapon is 鈥渢echnically feasible,鈥� it is 鈥減ractically not likely.鈥澨�

If attacked, however, Iran could 鈥渁ttempt to employ terrorist surrogates worldwide,鈥� close the Straits of Hormuz 鈥渁t least temporarily,鈥� and 鈥渕ay launch missiles against US forces [in Iraq or Afghanistan] and our allies in the region,鈥� General Burgess said.听

For these reasons, both Mr. Clapper and Burgess told lawmakers that it is their opinion that Israel has not yet decided to strike Iran, either.听

The urging of the United States to hold off on strikes may also have something to do with this decision, Dempsey conceded.

鈥淚鈥檓 confident that they understand our concerns that a strike at this time would be destabilizing and wouldn鈥檛 achieve their long-term objectives,鈥� he told CNN鈥檚 Fareed Zakaria.

Indeed, the hype surrounding Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions belies a considerable degree of rationality, Dempsey said, adding that Iran does not appear to be a highly irrational or unpredictable actor on the world stage. 鈥淲e are of the opinion that the Iranian regime is a rational actor.鈥�

At the same time, while international pressure in the form of sanctions has continued to increase, Tehran is 鈥渘ot close to agreeing to abandoning its nuclear program,鈥� Burgess added.

Dempsey for his part urged continued international sanctions, but said the Pentagon would continue its planning, making 鈥渙ptions available should the nation decide to do something in Iran.鈥�

Whether or not that will come to pass, Dempsey declined to hazard a guess. 鈥淔ortunately,鈥� he said, 鈥淚鈥檓 not a betting man.鈥澨�

RELATED 鈥撎�What would happen if Iran had the bomb?听