What history says about President Obama's approval rating now

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What history says about President Obama's approval rating now

President Obama's approval rating hovers around 40 percent. Will he get reelected? It doesn't look good in the light of other presidents (since 1947) at this same point.

Charles Dharapak/AP

President Barack Obama waves as he walks along the West Wing colonnade at the White House in Washington, Monday, Sept. 19, 2011 before traveling to New York.

By Liz Marlantes

Sept. 19, 2011, 5:12 p.m. ET | Washington

One of the most popular ways for pundits to evaluate the president鈥檚 chances of reelection is to offer historical comparisons of presidential poll numbers (He鈥檚 doing worse than Reagan! But better than Carter! Whatever that means!).

Here at DCDecoder, we appreciate having all the data laid out in one place. Below, we list at this same point in time - or as close as possible - heading into their reelection year, and whether they went on to win or lose. All the data is from Gallup.

(Note: We know Harry Truman鈥檚 1948 election wasn鈥檛 technically a reelect, but we think it counts since he鈥檇 been president for nearly a full term beforehand. We also think LBJ鈥檚 ratings going into the 1968 election are a worthy comparison, despite the fact that he didn鈥檛 seek reelection, since his decision was at least partly influenced by his weakened public standing. We included Gerald Ford and John Kennedy as well, just to make the list complete.)

Barack Obama (9/18/11) 40%

____

Winners

George W. Bush (9/10/03) 52%

Bill Clinton (9/17/95) 44%

Ronald Reagan (9/12/83) 47%

Richard Nixon (10/11/71) 52%

Dwight Eisenhower (9/20/55) 71%

Harry Truman (9/17/47) 55%

Losers

George H. W. Bush (9/15/91) 68%

Jimmy Carter (9/10/79) 30%

Gerald Ford (9/15/75) 45%

Did Not Run

John Kennedy (9/17/63) 55%

Lyndon Johnson (9/14/67) 37%

The upshot? No one with a rating as low as Obama鈥檚 at this point in time has gone on to win reelection. And one with a significantly higher rating - George H. W. Bush - went on to lose.

It鈥檚 worth noting that big swings are still possible. Jimmy Carter鈥檚 approval rating went all the way back up to 58% in January of 1980, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But that was an aberration - by March it had returned to the high 30s. George H. W. Bush鈥檚 approval rating, on the other hand - still riding high at this point in 1991, thanks to the Gulf War - went steadily downward after that, hitting a low of 29 in August of 1992.

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