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What Trump's win could mean for US Supreme Court

President-elect Donald Trump could have enormous sway over several cases currently before the Supreme Court, as well as the make up of the high court.

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Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
The Supreme Court is seen in Washington, June 30, 2014. Donald Trump will enter the Oval Office with the ability to re-establish the Supreme Court鈥檚 conservative tilt and the chance to cement it for the long term.

Republican Donald聽Trump's presidential election victory all but dooms major Obama administration initiatives that are already tied up in legal challenges and gives him the chance to appoint a pivotal fifth conservative justice on the US Supreme Court.

Democratic President Obama's signature 2010 healthcare聽law, his plan to combat climate change, his executive聽action on immigration, his transgender rights policy, and other issues were challenged in court by Republicans and industry groups.

A聽Trump聽administration could decide no longer to defend the policies in court after he takes office on Jan. 20. In addition,聽Mr. Trump聽and the incoming Republican-led Congress could simply repeal or rescind Obama's policies, as they have promised.

Trump's Supreme Court appointment, possibly the first of multiple picks, would allow him to restore the decades-long conservative majority on the bench, which looked under threat when conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died in February. The shorthanded court currently is split with four conservatives and four liberals.

Conservative聽activists may be emboldened to bring cases urging the court to support gun rights, uphold abortion restrictions, and rule for religious rights.

"If you have a conservative court, you are going to have more conservative decisions," said Kerri Kupec, a lawyer with the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative 海角大神 legal group involved in religious rights cases.

Liberal hopes of gaining a majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in decades lasted almost nine months, from Justice Scalia's death on Feb. 13 to Tuesday night.

In a vindication of Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell's decision, with little precedent in US history, to take no聽action on Obama's nominee to replace Scalia, appeals court judge Merrick Garland,聽Trump聽is now poised to nominate a new justice as soon as he takes office.

His nominee would be considered for confirmation by a Republican-controlled Senate under McConnell.

Trump聽may also be able to make further appointments to the court, with three justices 78 or older, including 83-year-old liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who聽Trump聽called on to resign in July after she called him a "faker" and speculated about the possibility of moving to New Zealand if he won the White House.

Fellow liberal Stephen Breyer is 78, while conservative Anthony Kennedy is 80.

If聽Trump聽is able to replace Ginsburg or another liberal justice during his presidency, the court's conservative wing would be further strengthened.

Such a majority "could be a threat to important rights that have been protected in the past by the Supreme Court," said Elizabeth Wydra, president of the Constitutional Accountability Center, a liberal legal group. She cited abortion rights and efforts at ensuring racial equality as examples.

A conservative court, as it was with Scalia on the bench, likely would be favorable toward gun rights, skeptical of abortion, and supportive of the death penalty. If Democrat Hillary Clinton had won Tuesday's election, liberals may have been emboldened to challenge the constitutionality of the death penalty and seek gun restrictions and limits on campaign spending, among other things.

Trump's list

Trump聽has already issued a list of 21 judges, mainly federal judges appointed by President George W. Bush and state court judges, who he said he would consider to fill Scalia's vacancy. All have conservative credentials on such issues as abortion, birth control, and gun rights.

The case that could be affected by聽Trump's win soonest involves transgender rights. The court on Oct. 28 took up a case concerning a female-born transgender high school student named Gavin Grimm, who identifies as male and sued in 2015 to win the right to use the school's boys' bathroom. Gavin is backed by the Obama administration.

No date has yet been set for the argument in the case. The court could potentially delay聽acting until it has nine justices.

A ruling could resolve similar litigation around the country over an Obama administration directive saying schools should allow transgender students to use the bathroom of their choosing.

Trump聽has said he would rescind the Obama directive. He also has said he would rescind Obama's executive聽action to protect millions of immigrants in the country illegally from deportation and give them work permits, which was put on hold by the courts while the administration continues to fight to revive it.

Trump聽would be expected to overturn major regulations put in place under Obama, including the Clean Power Plan to curb greenhouse emissions mainly from coal-fired power plants. That process takes time, meaning that the Supreme Court could potentially rule on a legal challenge to the Clean Power Plan before聽Trump聽can dump it. The case is pending before an appeals court in Washington.

The Republican Congress under聽Trump聽could now seek to repeal Obama's signature healthcare聽law, the聽Affordable聽Care聽Act, but even if it does not, a Republican legal challenge that could cripple the law is pending before a federal appeals court in Washington.

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