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The trial of neighborhood watchman George Zimmerman for the murder of Trayvon Martin, an unarmed black teenager, could be over before it even starts.

According to Mr. Zimmerman鈥檚 lawyer, his client will seek a 鈥渟tand your ground鈥� hearing 鈥� a 鈥渕ini-trial鈥� where evidence is introduced to a judge, there is no jury, and the burden of proof is on the defense to prove the claim. Florida鈥檚 controversial 2005 stand your ground law 鈥� the first such law in the United States 鈥� made it legal for people to use deadly force if they feared for their life during an attack in a public place.

To be sure, prosecutors say that it鈥檚 actually Trayvon who stood his ground against an unknown attacker and that Zimmerman鈥檚 injuries weren鈥檛 serious enough to indicate that his life was in danger. The shooting became a cultural flash point earlier this year after police in Sanford, Fla., where the shooting occurred, initially refused to charge Zimmerman with a crime.

But according to statistics gleaned by a team of investigative reporters at the Tampa Bay Times, 70 percent of stand your ground defenses in Florida have been successful. The overall odds of proving a successful stand your ground case go up to 73 percent in Florida if the victim is black, as Trayvon was.

Zimmerman鈥檚 self-defense is, at its core, simple: While he allegedly pursued Trayvon, whom he had pegged as a suspicious black man snooping around the neighborhood amid a crime wave, that decision doesn鈥檛 disqualify him from a self-defense argument.

What a judge will look at are simply the facts of that night and whether Zimmerman had reasonable fear that his life was in danger before firing a 9mm gun into Trayvon鈥檚 chest.

鈥淣one of what鈥檚 come out afterwards is relevant,鈥� says Bob Jarvis, a law professor at Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 relevant is what did Zimmerman know, what could he have known, what should he have known at the time.鈥�

Professor Jarvis adds, 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 get away from the Tampa Bay Times statistics, which suggest that he goes into court with a very strong hand ... and has a 3 out of 4 chance of winning.鈥�

Moreover, in hundreds of stand your ground cases in Florida, many defense claims have been far less clear and more circumstantial than Zimmerman鈥檚 insistence that he shot Trayvon only after getting punched and was having his head beaten into the sidewalk. The law has protected a bevy of marginal defendants, including men who killed people in self-defense during a drug deal gone bad, spurned lovers, and even a self-described vampire.

As the Tampa Bay Times reporters wrote in June, 鈥淧eople often go free under 鈥榮tand your ground鈥� in cases that seem to make a mockery of what lawmakers intended.鈥�听In nearly a third of the cases the Times analyzed, defendants initiated the fight, shot an unarmed person or pursued their victim 鈥� and still went free.鈥�

A case last year in Florida illuminates several dynamics of how the law works in practice. Prosecutors argued that a Collier County high school student was guilty of murder for, in essence, bringing a knife to an after-school fistfight. The boy stabbed an unarmed classmate 12 times after being punched several times in the head as he tried to walk away from a looming fight.

In a stand your ground hearing, the judge dismissed the prosecution鈥檚 opinion and set the teenager free.

In other words, "You don't have to wait until you're dead before you use deadly force,鈥� Donald Day, a Naples defense attorney, told the Tampa Bay Times in June.

But while the statistical odds for relief are in Zimmerman鈥檚 favor, he has several significant and difficult hurdles to overcome, legal experts say. This is largely based on what has happened since the shooting.

Last week, the judge in the case, Kenneth Lester, refused to recuse himself from the case after Zimmerman鈥檚 lawyer, Mark O鈥橫ara, raised questions about his impartiality. Mr. O鈥橫ara鈥檚 complaint stemmed from a stern bond ruling issued by Judge Lester where he insinuated that Zimmerman may have been planning to flee the country.

Lester was also the presiding judge when Shellie Zimmerman, Zimmerman鈥檚听 wife, allegedly committed perjury by denying knowledge of a $130,000 PayPal fund that was set up to help Zimmerman鈥檚 defense. This led to Lester rescinding the original bond and eventually allowing him to be released again, this time on a $1 million bond.

鈥淗e鈥檚 going to face a judge who is going to be very skeptical of what Zimmerman says, based on what鈥檚 happened since his arrest,鈥� says Jarvis. 鈥淭he other problem he has is notoriety. This case has gotten so much attention that I can see the judge saying, 鈥榊ou know what, you鈥檙e going to trial. I鈥檓 not going to be the one who sets you free.鈥� 鈥�