US-Iran nuclear talks benefit from Trump鈥檚 desire for a peace deal
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
Donald Trump has long pledged that in his second term he would be the 鈥減eace president,鈥� resolving quickly the wars and international security crises threatening world peace.
But with a ceasefire in Ukraine looking as far off as ever, and Israel intensifying its war in Gaza, Mr. Trump appears to be shifting his attention to a third arena for securing his reputation: Iran and its steadily advancing nuclear program.
Americans and indeed the world could expect 鈥渟omething good鈥� in a matter of days on diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and bar it from ever attaining a nuclear weapon, the president said Sunday.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onAs complex and daunting a problem as Iran鈥檚 steadily advancing nuclear program may be, for now it still may offer President Donald Trump the best option for burnishing his self-image as a deal-maker and peacemaker.
No one either at the White House or among analysts focused on Iran suggests that 鈥済ood news鈥� could be an actual deal resolving the nuclear issue. But some say it could be something like an interim agreement laying out the parameters for a deal, or perhaps an Iranian agreement to temporarily modify its uranium enrichment activities, slowing its path to the fuel required for a bomb.
Whatever the 鈥済ood news,鈥� it would allow the president to show progress in resolving 鈥� 鈥渨ith no bombs dropped,鈥� as he says he prefers 鈥� a key threat to global peace and stability. Moreover, as complex and daunting a problem as Iran鈥檚 nuclear program may be, it would fortify Mr. Trump鈥檚 drooping self-image as someone who can take what he calls 鈥渂ad deals鈥� and make them 鈥済ood deals.鈥�
鈥淭he Iran negotiations are the best opportunity for Trump to resolve an international crisis,鈥� says Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.
Factors favoring a deal
Noting that the political will to reach a deal exists on both sides and that negotiations are ongoing, Ms. Davenport adds, 鈥淣othing is assured ... but compared to Gaza and Ukraine, Iran holds the promise of an international challenge where Trump can make a deal and avert a crisis.鈥�
By reaching a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, Mr. Trump would be making good on a commitment to take what he calls the 鈥渂ad deal鈥� that President Barack Obama reached with Iran in 2015 and replacing it with a better one.
In his first term, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated with Iran, shifting to a 鈥渕aximum-pressure campaign.鈥� That policy failed to slow Iran鈥檚 nuclear progress, and he never reached a new deal.
Still, a number of factors favor reaching a deal under Trump 2.0, not the least of which is Iran鈥檚 weaker economic and regional standing today, analysts say. Others say international factors appear to be feeding Iran鈥檚 openness to moving forward in an attempt to head off looming worse alternatives.
At the top of that list is Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 clear and public preference for military action now to take out Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities. Mr. Netanyahu is said to be worried that President Trump鈥檚 desire for the acclaim that would come with a deal will ultimately leave Iran with an enrichment program and the capability of building a bomb.
On Wednesday Mr. Trump confirmed reports that he had warned Mr. Netanyahu in a weekend phone call against striking Iran. 鈥淚 just said ... 鈥榃e鈥檙e having very good discussions with [the Iranians], and I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 appropriate right now,鈥欌�� the president said.
The Israeli leader, joined by some of Mr. Trump鈥檚 top national security advisers and hawkish Republican senators, says a full cessation of Iran鈥檚 enrichment activities and complete dismantling of its nuclear program is the only acceptable outcome.
Iran, on the other hand, says that as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has a right to a peaceful nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment for powering energy production.
But also likely to be figuring in Iran鈥檚 calculations are the influence of the White House faction favoring military action 鈥� When might the hawks carry the day with a mercurial president? 鈥� and prospects for a European Union-led return to tough economic sanctions on Iran over its nuclear advancements.
Tougher negotiating tactic?
Indeed, some analysts say that instead of encouraging Iran with public hints of diplomatic progress, Mr. Trump should be underscoring the implications for Tehran if he decides the Iranians are stringing him along.
鈥淚鈥檇 be wary of how good is the 鈥榞ood news鈥� the president is talking about, because the reality is that the two sides are still miles apart,鈥� says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow focusing on Iranian security and political issues at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington.
鈥淚f you鈥檙e Iran you want to initiate blips of optimism that allow the regime to continue limping along,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut none of it means they are seriously adjusting their position [on their nuclear program]. They are still just seeking to fit square pegs into round holes.鈥�
In that scenario, Mr. Trump鈥檚 best option may be to 鈥減ush away from the table鈥� and call Iran鈥檚 bluff, he says. 鈥淭he president鈥檚 best chance of getting a deal is to play up the regime鈥檚 fears about the consequences of not seriously negotiating now.鈥�
Mr. Ben Taleblu鈥檚 first recommendation would be for the Trump administration to move away from talks with Iran and coordinate with the EU on steps toward the 鈥渟napback鈥� to the steep economic sanctions the Iranians most fear. Those sanctions are set to return in October, but European officials have said they are considering moving up the timing by months.
The Arms Control Association鈥檚 Ms. Davenport says she also sees risks in a hasty declaration of 鈥済ood news鈥� that could ultimately make a diplomatic resolution of Iran鈥檚 nuclear challenge less likely.
Noting the president鈥檚 鈥渟hort attention span,鈥� she says she worries Mr. Trump 鈥渃ould declare victory early over some interim steps and lose the momentum to move towards a comprehensive deal.鈥�
But that might only assure that the diplomatic path is eventually closed off, she says, and the hawks pressing for military intervention get their way.
鈥淚f Trump allows Netanyahu and others in the administration to push to no enrichment and full dismantlement of the nuclear program, Iran is going to walk away,鈥� she says. 鈥淎nd there aren鈥檛 many alternatives as to where that leads.鈥�
