Hamas leader鈥檚 death revives hopes for a Gaza peace plan. Is that enough?
| Washington and Istanbul
Just over a year ago, the Biden administration was pressing Middle East partners forward on a transformative plan for the region that would include normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a definitive pathway to a Palestinian state.
Then Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar launched the surprise Oct. 7 attack on Israel 鈥� one of his motivations being to scuttle an American peace plan that seemed increasingly imminent.
A devastating war in Gaza 鈥� and expansion of the conflict to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Iran 鈥� ensued.
Why We Wrote This
After a harrowing year of war in Gaza and the Middle East, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar rekindled hopes for a grand U.S.-led plan to move the region into a more peaceful era. But many obstacles, Israeli and Palestinian, remain.
Now Mr. Sinwar has again shaken the region like an earthquake, this time with his death in a firefight Wednesday with Israeli soldiers on patrol in Gaza.
The question now is whether the Oct. 7 mastermind鈥檚 death might facilitate the Gaza cease-fire and hostages release deal the Biden administration has promoted for months 鈥� and even revive the grand regional plan.
For many experts, the answer depends heavily on navigating both ambitious Israeli war goals and internal Palestinian divisions.
Almost immediately, Thursday, President Joe Biden signaled his hope that removal of the Sinwar obstacle would jumpstart peace efforts.
鈥淭here is now the opportunity for a 鈥榙ay after鈥� in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,鈥� Mr. Biden said in a statement.
Indeed, several Gulf Arab diplomats appeared Friday to want to jump on the Biden 鈥渙pportunity鈥� bandwagon, seeing a chance to advance the plan that had been grounded for months and even to prevent an Israel-Iran war.
But the president鈥檚 optimistic assessment is most likely premature, many regional analysts and diplomatic experts say. If anything, some add, Mr. Sinwar鈥檚 death is likely to lead to a reorganizational period for Hamas, while it could embolden Israel in ways that put off any resolution even further.
鈥淎ny advancement in plans by Arab states depends heavily on Israel鈥檚 policy moving forward,鈥� says Hesham Alghannam, Saudi political scientist and non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
鈥淚f Israel sees this as an opportunity to further its objectives and continues its aggression on Gaza without concessions, as it did in the past, it will hinder Arab Gulf state efforts.鈥�
鈥淭here have been two preeminent decision makers in this conflict,鈥� Mr. Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 鈥渁nd I don鈥檛 believe the disappearance of one is going to mean the necessary steps for ending this war are going to happen any more quickly,鈥� says Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East diplomat.
It鈥檚 not just a question of agreeing to a cease-fire and freeing the hostages, says Mr. Miller, who served in both Democratic and Republican administrations. 鈥淭hose things mandate critically important questions that won鈥檛 be answered easily.鈥�
Among them: What security authorities will exist in postwar Gaza that will ensure no resurgence of Hamas? What role will there be for the Palestinian Authority? Will there be Arab countries鈥� boots on the ground?
A shift, but not an end?
For Mr. Miller, Mr. Biden鈥檚 suggestion that Mr. Sinwar鈥檚 removal opens a window to resolve the conflict underscores once again the issue of timing.
鈥淭he Hamas clock and the Netanyahu clock are not running as quickly as the Biden administration鈥檚, and it鈥檚 just not realistic to think Sinwar鈥檚 death has done anything to synchronize these clocks,鈥� he says.
鈥淭his is a moral issue and a legacy issue for a president who had hoped to resolve this before leaving office,鈥� notes Mr. Miller, now a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 very different from the considerations motivating the next steps of either Netanyahu or of an organization taking time to consider its future.鈥�
The demise of a key player whose overarching goal was the destruction of Israel will alter the course of the conflict, others say, but less than conclusively.
鈥淵es, this does present an opportunity for a shift 鈥� but at best it鈥檚 going to be a change to a different phase in the Gaza piece of this,鈥� says Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 鈥淭his doesn鈥檛 bring an end to anything.鈥�
The 鈥渙pportunity鈥� he sees is for the Israelis, specifically Mr. Netanyahu, 鈥渢o move into a phase that is more diplomatic and starts to address these big governance and security questions hanging over Gaza.鈥�
Some with insight into both U.S. and Israeli politics agree that the moment presents an opportunity 鈥� but they doubt Mr. Netanyahu is ready to subordinate his domestic political considerations to seize it.
鈥淭his should be an opportunity to advance the Biden initiative, which envisions a resolution of longstanding regional issues,鈥� says Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli government official and Israel fellow with the Israel Policy Forum in Washington.
鈥淏ut the cork in the bottle for all of this is Gaza,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd if you don鈥檛 uncork Gaza you can鈥檛 get to the rest.鈥� But he says that would imply doing things in Gaza 鈥� including much more extensive humanitarian assistance and some role for the Palestinian authority 鈥� that couldn鈥檛 pass muster with part of Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 government.
鈥淯nfortunately, for Netanyahu his coalition is more precious than even bringing back the hostages,鈥� he says.
And nothing suggests a desire in the government coalition to move forward with the Americans.
Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right cabinet minister, posted on social media platform X shortly after Sinwar鈥檚 death was confirmed that he 鈥渉ears the talk abroad about 鈥榓n opportunity to end the war,鈥� from those who tried to pressure us to stop the war a long time ago and stop us from entering Rafah.鈥�
鈥淚f they are aiming right now at a surrender deal in which Israel dumps the achievements of the war that were bought with a lot of blood, I tell them 鈥� to forget about it,鈥� he wrote in the post.
Achieving a meeting of the minds
Still, some Israeli analysts hold out hope that the government can move beyond its most extreme members to seize the moment.
Shimrit Meir, who advised former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, is among those also urging Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 government to take advantage of the void in Hamas leadership.
鈥淪inwar was a symbol the de-facto leader of the Palestinian national movement. He was the kind of leader you see once in a generation, the fact that he鈥檚 gone allows for a reshuffling of the cards,鈥� she told the Israeli podcast 鈥淯nholy.鈥�
Meanwhile, Arab Gulf states on Friday were pitching the day-after plan not only as the off-ramp to the Israel-Hamas war, but as a key to easing regional tensions.
鈥淪inwar鈥檚 killing gives us momentum. There are no Hamas hard-liners standing in our way,鈥� says an Arab Gulf diplomat who was not authorized to speak to the press. 鈥淏ut the ball is now in Netanyahu鈥檚 court.
鈥淭he main components for the day-after plan for Gaza have all been agreed upon by us Gulf states, the EU, and the Americans,鈥� the diplomat said. 鈥淎 technocrat Palestinian Authority entity, no Hamas in government, Gulf-funded reconstruction, and security guarantees for Israel.鈥�
Although Arab states have been holding high-level discussions with Israel over the initiative for months, 鈥渨e have been given conflicting messages from the Israeli government whether Israel supports the plan, or is ignoring it completely,鈥� the diplomat added.
That assessment does not take into account continuing indecision and disagreement among key Palestinians on how to move forward.
While the main five Arab states involved 鈥� Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar 鈥� are unanimous on the plan, infighting among Palestinian factions has hindered the final talks over any new Palestinian governing entity.
鈥淭he internal Palestinian political landscape, marked by factionalism and infighting, serves as a significant barrier,鈥� says Dr. Alghannam, the Saudi analyst.
鈥淭hese divisions not only complicate immediate post-war governance and security arrangements but also hinder the broader objective of creating a sustainable, unified Palestinian state or administrative entity,鈥� he says.
Most experts see Israel pursuing its military operations in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon no matter how much the U.S. promotes the moment as providing an off-ramp from war.
But if Mr. Netanyahu does decide to shift at least partially to a more diplomatic phase, he鈥檚 going to need the backing of the Americans for moving forward, Dr. Jones of CSIS says. 鈥淭he Israelis are going to continue their operations where they see their security at stake, no matter what Washington says.鈥�
鈥淏ut where the Israelis are going to need help is at that point where [Mr. Netanyahu] decides he ready to think about what鈥檚 next in Gaza,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not at all clear yet when he鈥檚 going to be ready to take up those broader issues.鈥�
Special correspondent Dina Kraft contributed from Tel Aviv, and special contributor Fatima AbdulKarim contributed from Ramallah.
