海角大神

As president, Donald Trump has had his share of bromances with world leaders 鈥� certainly more than his predecessor, the cool Barack Obama, ever did.

There was the short-lived fling with French President Emmanuel Macron, an early dalliance with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that failed to launch, and a cozying up to strongman leaders 鈥� from Russia鈥檚 Vladimir Putin and Turkey鈥檚 Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an to Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines 鈥� that remain a feature of Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidency.

And then of course there was Mr. Trump鈥檚 own admission that he and North Korea鈥檚 Kim Jong Un 鈥渇ell in love.鈥�

But none of these courtships has had the visceral kinship and staying power of the relationship between Mr. Trump and Israel鈥檚 prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu聽鈥撀燼 relationship that has addressed each leader鈥檚 professed respective priorities, from border security and the status of Jerusalem to, now, the Golan Heights.

As the first-name-basis leaders prepare to meet again at a White House meeting and dinner Monday and Tuesday, close observers say the lasting bond between two ardent nationalists who have Iran at the top of their enemies list is not just a matter of aligned worldviews, although that is a major factor.

Even more important, they say, is how Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu identify with each other as the shunned of their country鈥檚 鈥� and indeed the world鈥檚 鈥� elites and as soulmates who understand their survival depends on a loyal, fervent, and forgiving political base.

鈥淏ibi was Trump before there was Trump, always in a mode of solidifying and advancing his core base but not looking to be a unifying symbol of the state,鈥� says David Makovsky, director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a longtime Israel expert.

The two men 鈥済et that in each other and identify with it,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut maybe even more than that, they have a sense of common grievance, that they are up against the elites of their society, the deep state,鈥� Mr. Makovsky adds. 鈥淭hey feel like they鈥檙e in the foxhole together, persecuted by essentially the same establishments, and they鈥檝e decided to hit back at the same institutions of democracy, first among them the judiciary and the media.鈥�

Mr. Netanyahu learned from Mr. Trump to disparage any tough coverage or media analysis of him as 鈥渇ake news,鈥� something Mr. Makovsky says the Israeli leader now does 鈥渏ust about every day.鈥�

And of course both leaders find themselves and their political entourages under investigation by national judicial authorities: Mr. Trump under the cloud of the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, and the felony convictions of a number of his high-level campaign aides; and Mr. Netanyahu set to be indicted by Israel鈥檚 attorney general on a number of corruption charges sometime after Israel鈥檚 April 9 elections.

More than warmth, utility

Still, for some, 鈥渂romance鈥� just is not the right term for the Trump-Netanyahu tandem, because they see no warmth or real friendship to a relationship in which the key common denominators are a sense of being under siege and of mutual utility.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Trump maintains deep personal relationships with anyone, Netanyahu included,鈥� says Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington and an expert in security alliances. 鈥淲hether he鈥檚 dealing with democratically elected leaders or with strongmen, the 鈥榖romances鈥� have been short-lived and really haven鈥檛 gone anywhere.鈥�

But what Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu have in common and the common vision they have of their political situations聽鈥� these聽have allowed their relationship to last where others haven鈥檛, Mr. Kupchan says.

鈥淭his is a relationship that rests on the strong mutual benefits that it brings to both sides,鈥� he says. 鈥淵es, there are clear ideological and stylistic similarities, and I鈥檓 sure that creates an affinity. But that doesn鈥檛 seem to create stickiness for Trump.鈥�

Each leader finds the other very useful in maintaining strong support within his core political base. For Mr. Trump, that includes a large number of evangelicals and a small but fervent (and influential) slice of the American Jewish electorate, Mr. Kupchan says. For Mr. Netanyahu, it鈥檚 the conservative base of his Likud party and factions farther to the right.

Indeed, Mr. Trump鈥檚 surprise tweet this week that he intends to upend long-held U.S. (and international) policy with recognition of Israel鈥檚 sovereignty over the contested Golan Heights was seen by some analysts to be as much about Mr. Trump playing to his own fervently pro-Israel base as it is about shoring up Mr. Netanyahu in the midst of a tough reelection battle.

Billboards in Israel

That Mr. Trump is intent on doing what he can to boost Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 election prospects seems abundantly clear. And Mr. Netanyahu is pulling out all stops to showcase his alliance with the U.S. president, going so far as to tweet 鈥淭hank you President Trump!鈥� shortly after Mr. Trump tweeted his Golan Heights decision.

Mr. Kupchan notes that, in the election campaign underway in Israel, Mr. Netanyahu is featuring billboards of himself standing proudly with Mr. Trump 鈥� something it鈥檚 hard to imagine many other world leaders doing (North Korea鈥檚 Mr. Kim did make liberal use of photos of himself standing shoulder to shoulder with the American president at last year鈥檚 Singapore summit).

Indeed, the White House has faced criticism for extending an invitation to Mr. Netanyahu less than one month before the April 9 elections. (The Israeli leader will be in Washington to address the annual meeting of the pro-Israel AIPAC, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, as will his chief rival in the election, Benny Gantz of the Blue and White political alliance.) Some critics say that the leaders鈥� meeting Monday is one thing but that the dinner Tuesday loudly signals Trump鈥檚 support for Mr. Netanyahu.

The same criticism marked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo鈥檚 stop in Jerusalem Thursday, when he visited the Western Wall with Mr. Netanyahu, making him the highest-ranking American official ever to make the visit to the Jewish holy site with an Israeli prime minister.

Even before Mr. Trump鈥檚 Golan tweet Thursday, Jerusalem was swirling with rumors the president would give Mr. Netanyahu a pre-election boost by recognizing Israel鈥檚 annexation of the Golan Heights, seized from Syria in the 1967 war and occupied by Israel ever since.

Should Mr. Netanyahu prevail in next month鈥檚 elections 鈥� polls continue to show Likud trailing the centrist Blue and White alliance but with enough smaller right-wing parties factoring in to potentially shift victory to a Netanyahu-led coalition 鈥� the big test for the two leaders鈥� relationship is likely to be the Middle East peace plan Mr. Trump is expected to unveil later this spring or early summer.

So far the U.S. relationship with Israel under Mr. Trump has been mostly all gives and no asks, though Mr. Netanyahu did endorse Mr. Trump鈥檚 demand for a wall to enhance border security. First among those gives was Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision in 2017 to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The Golan Heights is only the latest gift, but it is one that longtime Middle East peace negotiator Dennis Ross, who has served in both Republican and Democratic administrations, says is sure to complicate prospects for getting Arab leaders to sign on to a Trump peace plan.

Any Israeli give on peace plan?

Mr. Trump鈥檚 approach to Israel seems likely to change under any credible plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Still, whatever the promised peace plan includes, Mr. Netanyahu would be likely to go to great pains to continue standing with Mr. Trump 鈥� just as he is currently in his campaign posters 鈥� analysts say.

鈥淣etanyahu will have to be very very careful鈥� in responding to an eventual peace plan, says the Washington Institute鈥檚 Mr. Makovsky. 鈥淗e will say 鈥楧onald has done great work鈥� and 鈥業 will meet with [Palestinian leader Mahmoud] Abbas anytime鈥� 鈥� but he will not say no to Trump,鈥� he says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 going to count on Abbas to be the bad guy who says no to Trump.鈥�

Of course, some say that Mr. Trump is unlikely to propose any tough measures for Israel in a final-settlement peace plan that risk provoking the ire of his political base.

鈥淭rump is headed into a tough election season himself, so the last thing he鈥檚 about to do is something that sows doubt within his base,鈥� says CFR鈥檚 Mr. Kupchan. 鈥淪o I would be very surprised if the U.S. puts out an ambitious peace plan that causes a great deal of heartache in Israel.鈥�

That may be, but at the same time Mr. Makovsky says Mr. Netanyahu is a 鈥渞ealist鈥� who 鈥済ets鈥� Mr. Trump and perhaps because of that is not misty-eyed about their relationship. 鈥淗e鈥檚 worried that Trump is mercurial enough that he could turn on him if he scorns Trump鈥檚 big initiative.鈥�

In other words, if bromance there is, it has its limits.