Behind breakup of Trump-Macron bromance, a deeper US-Europe divide
-
Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
It was clear from that first power-grip handshake a year ago between President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron that this was one bromance that was not destined to last.
There were expressions of deep friendship between the two leaders, and even a White House state dinner in April feting both Mr. Macron and the Franco-American bond. But the fissures have since only grown between a self-proclaimed nationalist and anti-European-Union American president and a French president who has emerged as an ardent multilateralist and chief defender of an integrated Europe.聽聽聽
The breakup of the West鈥檚 unlikely power couple was laid out over a painful weekend in Paris crafted by Macron to commemorate the centenary of the World War I armistice 鈥� only to be sealed Tuesday with a series of tweets from Mr. Trump.
Why We Wrote This
As president, Donald Trump has gravitated toward personal and bilateral ties on the world stage. So a weekend of very visible clashes with French leader Emmanuel Macron is telling.
Deriding Macron鈥檚 call for building a European army to make Europe a stronger defense player, Trump noted that the two world wars were fought against Germany and that it was the US that saved France. 鈥淭hey were starting to learn German in Paris before the US came along,鈥� he said.
Trump repeated his demand that Europeans 鈥減ay for NATO鈥� or else, blasted France for 鈥渘ot fair鈥� trade practices, and suggested that in promoting his vision for Europe, Macron was 鈥渏ust trying to get onto another subject.鈥�
Then Trump鈥檚 critique veered toward the personal. 鈥淭he problem is that Emmanuel suffers from a very low Approval Rating in France,鈥� he wrote of his erstwhile close friend, 鈥渁nd an unemployment rate of almost 10%.鈥� All of which he concluded with 鈥淢AKE FRANCE GREAT AGAIN!鈥澛� 聽聽
The end of the Trump-Macron tandem might hold little more than human interest value were it not for the fact that the breakup confirms the collision course Trump has embarked on in relations with Europe.
Indeed the falling out between two leaders of such differing and increasingly bifurcating visions will almost certainly have profound repercussions in already-foundering transatlantic relations 鈥� in everything from trade and economic ties to defense cooperation, the future of NATO, and on to the strength of the West as a beacon for the rest of the world.
鈥淭he collision of world visions we saw this weekend in Paris was not anything new, but it was perhaps the starkest confrontation yet, with President Trump proudly announcing he is a nationalist, and President Macron condemning nationalism as the source of so many historical catastrophes and announcing multilateralism as the only way we can address our global problems,鈥� says Heather Conley, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
鈥淲e are in a moment of transition, when we are moving away from the international system that was developed by 鈥榯he greatest generation鈥� and which depended so heavily on American leadership, and there鈥檚 tremendous uncertainty about what will replace it,鈥� she adds. 鈥淎nd in the meantime those two fundamental world visions we saw from President Trump and President Macron are going to keep colliding, whether it鈥檚 over NATO鈥檚 future, or climate, or the Iran nuclear deal, or how to approach Russia.鈥�
Spotlight on transatlantic tensions
Viewed through the European and much of the US media, the Paris weekend was largely an optics disaster for Trump. An event meant to showcase transatlantic unity and the sacrifice of the American 鈥渄oughboys鈥� who came to the rescue of peace and freedom in Europe instead highlighted transatlantic tensions and an American president estranged from his peers.
The French were shocked at Trump鈥檚 absence from a ceremony at a World War I American cemetery outside of Paris 鈥� the White House blamed the rain for grounding Marine One, the president鈥檚 helicopter, and thus preventing Trump鈥檚 travel to the site.
Newspaper editorials declared that earlier US presidents 鈥� certainly Ronald Reagan, not particularly loved in France but recognized for his role in restoring a united Europe 鈥� would have found a way to the cemetery. Some said it marked the end of Europe鈥檚 ability to hark back to American sacrifices at Belleau Wood or on the beaches of Normandy to preserve transatlantic ties.
Then Trump was notably absent when a column of world leaders led by Macron marched arm-in-arm up the Champs-Elysees to the Arc de Triomphe 鈥� the White House again stating that security considerations were to blame, forcing Trump to arrive at the Arc by a separate route.
For some observers, the message from Paris was of an American president more focused on America as the victim of its unfair allies rather than on America as the savior and now partner of those allies. But that focus left Trump looking bitter and estranged, they say.
鈥淭hese are the same themes President Trump returns to over and over, of others taking advantage of America and America going it alone and so forth,鈥� says Ms. Conley. 鈥淎nd the more he doubles down the more self-isolated he becomes, and that鈥檚 what he experienced in Paris.鈥�
Yet others say: Not so fast. They hail Trump for standing separate from the chief promoters of a federalist vision for Europe 鈥� Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel 鈥� and insist that it is in fact those leaders who are isolated from Europe鈥檚 re-awakening of nation-states and growing rejection of governance by the European Union.
Disputed vision for Europe
鈥淚 do think the Trump approach to sovereignty as the core of US foreign policy is very much in tune with the way Europe is moving in general 鈥� from Poland through Italy,鈥� not to mention a Brexit-era Britain, says Nile Gardiner, a former aide to the late British Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher and now an expert in transatlantic affairs at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.
鈥淢acron is really the last gasp of the old liberal order in Europe,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd I think part of what we saw in Paris was President Trump rightly standing separate from that increasingly rejected vision for Europe.鈥�
In particular, Trump correctly lambasted Macron鈥檚 renewed call for developing an autonomous European Union army (an idea endorsed Tuesday by Ms. Merkel), Mr. Gardiner says.
鈥淎n EU army splits the transatlantic alliance, creates a parallel military structure that takes resources away from NATO, and is in fact a Kremlin dream,鈥� he says. Noting that the idea for an EU army has been around for years without proceeding in any concrete fashion, Gardiner says that by reviving the idea now both Macron and Merkel are 鈥渁dvancing Russian goals by significantly weakening the transatlantic alliance. It鈥檚 music to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin鈥檚 ears.鈥�
Macron also took Trump to task, if obliquely, for embracing nationalism 鈥� which the French president singled out as the root cause of Europe鈥檚 most devastating conflicts. 鈥淭he point President Macron wanted to make is that when nations do not follow laws and international norms, and instead exercise their own power over others, catastrophes happen,鈥� says Conley of CSIS.
But for Heritage鈥檚 Gardiner, it was Macron who was harking back to a distant nationalism while Trump was in step with Europe鈥檚 future. 鈥淢acron was trying to conflate the Europe of the 1930s with present-day calls for national sovereignty, but the two are not the same,鈥� he says. 鈥淧resident Trump envisions a more conservative approach for Europe based on self-determination, control of borders, and a rejection of EU control.鈥�
Where all appear to agree is that the collision of visions for European and indeed global order will not subside or be resolved any time soon.
On to Buenos Aires
After the Trump era鈥檚 divisive NATO and G7 summits, and now the stark estrangement of the Paris Great War commemoration, the G20 summit set for Buenos Aires at the end of the month will likely be the next venue showcasing the West鈥檚 deep divisions, experts say.
鈥淭he Trump-Macron relationship was always a very superficial one, and I think the strains we saw between them this past weekend exemplify the deep differences between ideologies that we鈥檙e going to see more of in the coming weeks, including at what I expect will be a very fiery G20,鈥� Gardiner says.
鈥淔iery,鈥� he adds, because of the divisions the summit will showcase between the US 鈥渁nd some European governments and Canada.鈥�
For others, the G20 summit, which brings together the world鈥檚 20 largest economies, will put on display competing visions for global economic organization 鈥� while highlighting the retreat of a unified Western vision for international order and progress.
鈥淭his G20 is going to be focused on the meetings President Trump will have with [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping] and President Putin, so the question will be, where do America鈥檚 allies and partners fit into this,鈥� says Conley. 鈥淔or Macron, it will not be this American president who will be standing up for a Western-led order based on a set of universal values.鈥�
Moreover, as the Paris weekend again demonstrated, the Western powers simply have no unified vision to promote in the face of rising challenges from China and Russia, purveyors of models very different from the postwar international order.
鈥淲e are at a moment when we are in between international visions ... when the West needs to reimagine and reorganize itself and put its values into a new framework that has meaning to the new generation,鈥� Conley says. 鈥淏ut with such deep divisions over what that framework should be or the principles that should guide it,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢here really are no guarantees the West can get there.鈥�
