海角大神

The murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi will have far-reaching repercussions in the coming months 鈥� from the viability of the US-Saudi strategy to counter Iran, to the price of oil, and on to prospects for President Trump鈥檚 Middle East 鈥渄eal of the century鈥� peace plan.

What is less certain is whether the horrific violation of one Saudi regime critic鈥檚 human rights will do much to stem the rise and free rein of rights-violating regimes across the Middle East and indeed around the world, many regional experts say.

The Saudis聽may have believed they had a 鈥渂lank check from the Trump administration鈥� to pursue actions like the silencing of regime critics such as Mr. Khashoggi,聽says聽Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington.聽If they did, it is at least in part聽because they saw other authoritarian leaders 鈥� from聽regional players聽Turkey and Egypt to聽global powers聽Russia and China 鈥� silencing their critics and stamping out dissent with impunity, he adds.

鈥淣one of those leaders have been held accountable for their acts鈥� 鈥� by the US, the West, or the international community, Mr. Cook says 鈥� 鈥渟o why should the Saudis in this environment think they should have to act any differently?鈥�

That sobering assessment of unchecked impunity could very well play out in the Saudi case, including with respect to its disastrous war in neighboring Yemen, considered the world鈥檚 worst humanitarian disaster by the UN, despite the intense global attention the Khashoggi case is garnering, regional analysts say.

But, some add, the US is uniquely placed to alter this course if a transactional White House that has been single-mindedly focused on American economic and military interests adjusts to make values like human rights and the rule of law part of its equation. A course correction could also occur if another influential power 鈥� for example, the US Congress 鈥� asserts itself and demands consequences strong enough to alter regime behavior.

鈥淯nder this White House, the US-Saudi relationship has been overwhelmingly focused on military-to-military relations 鈥� and left to the relationship between [Trump son-in-law] Jared Kushner and [Saudi Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Salman, but we鈥檙e going to see some correction,鈥� says Elizabeth Prodromou, a professor of conflict resolution at Tufts University鈥檚 Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Medford, Mass.

鈥淭his event will push the Trump White House to make some adjustments, and the question will be whether the White House takes the lead in that correction or Congress pushes the White House to take action,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut either way, we鈥檙e going to go in the same direction.鈥�

Among the concrete steps Professor Prodromou and others expect to see in the coming weeks:

• The nominating finally of a US ambassador to Riyadh to 鈥減rofessionalize鈥� the relationship and take it out of Mr. Kushner鈥檚 inexperienced hands.
• Renewed congressional efforts to stop arming the Saudi-led war in Yemen.
• Perhaps sanctions aimed at putting on notice Saudi Arabia 鈥� and for that matter other US partners in the region 鈥� that America is going to act in defense of its values and count human rights among its vital interests.

鈥淭he Saudi relationship will become perhaps the key metric for how seriously the world takes us for our exercise of soft power and our commitment to universal human rights,鈥� says Prodromou, an expert in the intersection of religion, democracy, and security. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to provide a measure of how we鈥檙e perceived in the world, of our ability to lead on human rights 鈥� and whether our moral authority holds any longer.鈥�

Clearly the US is not going to sever or even seriously downgrade relations with Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi affair. Mr. Trump has consistently stated 鈥� since shortly after Khashoggi, a resident of Virginia and columnist for the Washington Post, disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul 鈥� that no matter what he would not jeopardize US arms sales to the kingdom, and the 鈥淎merican jobs鈥� he says those sales create.

New leverage for US?

This week Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin visited Riyadh and met with the crown prince, though he tried to give the stop on a six-country trip a low profile (until the Saudis issued a photo of Mr. Mnuchin with the prince).

But CIA Director Gina Haspel was also dispatched this week to the region 鈥� in her case to Turkey, where she is reported to have listened to tapes Turkish officials have claimed to have of Khashoggi鈥檚 murder. Some unnamed US officials with knowledge of Ms. Haspel鈥檚 meetings described the tapes as 鈥渃ompelling.鈥�

And Congress has made it clear that it intends to hold the administration鈥檚 feet to the fire over the Khashoggi scandal. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has already invoked the Magnitsky Act, which directs the president to report back to the committee on a country鈥檚 grave human rights breach within 120 days and determine whether sanctions will be imposed.

After an initiative by Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky to stop arming Saudi Arabia鈥檚 Yemen war lost by only four votes in June, many observers now expect the Khashoggi case to prompt Senator Paul to try again 鈥� and very possibly with a different result this time.

What all of this tells some diplomats and foreign policy analysts is that the US post-Khashoggi will have unprecedented leverage over Saudi Arabia and in particular Crown Prince Salman, also known as MBS 鈥� if the Trump White House decides to use it.

Noting that US-Saudi relations have been 鈥渂ouncing from one problem to another under MBS鈥檚 leadership,鈥� Middle East expert and former US ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk says the Khashoggi case adds fresh urgency to an already needed reassessment.

鈥淲e have an opportunity to sit down with MBS 鈥� and say, 鈥榃e cannot go on like this, we need a reliable partner,鈥� 鈥� he says. 鈥淲e need to restructure our relationship with MBS if we decide we can鈥檛 get rid of him and have to work with him.鈥�

Impact on Yemen war

Indyk says the Khashoggi debacle only reinforces the already growing sentiment that the White House strategy of relying on Saudi Arabia to deliver the Palestinians to accept a grand peace accord with Israel is in tatters. But he says the new leverage the US has with the Saudis could salvage some aspects of the strategy to counter Iran.

Noting that new US sanctions targeting Iran鈥檚 oil production will go into effect shortly, Mr. Indyk says Trump could pressure the Saudis to make up for the estimated 1 million barrels a day of Iranian oil that will no longer reach the global market. The worrisome aspect of such a scenario is that Trump might 鈥渟oft-pedal鈥� the US response to Khashoggi in order to get the Saudis to boost oil production.

But perhaps the most significant impact Indyk and others see from a post-Khashoggi recalibration of US-Saudi relations will be on the disastrous war in Yemen, where Saudi bombing campaigns (using US-supplied bombs) continue to hit civilians, and where millions of people face starvation.

鈥淧art of the positive side鈥� of something as horrendous as the Khashoggi killing could be 鈥済etting the Saudis out of Yemen,鈥� says CFR鈥檚 Cook. The White House has shown little interest in the war, he says, 鈥渂ut the Congress is in a completely different place on this,鈥� he adds. He expects to see Congress 鈥渦sing this brutal murder to hold MBS accountable on Yemen.鈥�

Indeed some experts see a congressional effort to stop the Saudis鈥� use of US arms in Yemen spilling over into heightened attention to the state of rights and the rule of law inside Saudi Arabia. 鈥淲e see in Congress a growing preoccupation with the gross human rights violations in the Saudis鈥� prosecution of the war in Yemen,鈥� says the Fletcher School鈥檚 Prodromou, 鈥渂ut what I think generally is that there鈥檚 going to be more rather than less concern over the human rights part of this relationship.鈥�

Prodromou says she believes there鈥檚 a 鈥�50-50 chance鈥� of some sanctions on Saudi officials being triggered by the Magnitsky Act. 鈥淎nd if that happens it will be a sea change in the relationship.鈥�

鈥榃indfall for Iran鈥�

What worries Prodromou is that while the Khashoggi affair may end up prompting the US to assert its values and other aspects of its soft power in its relations with Saudi Arabia, the scandal will only empower and embolden others in the region with as bad or worse human rights records 鈥� including Turkey and Iran.

鈥淭urkey has more journalists in prison than China, and that鈥檚 been true for a decade, and yet Turkey is going to come out of this a big winner,鈥� she says, arguing that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an has played the Khashoggi affair adroitly 鈥� even using it to make that case that Turkey and not Saudi Arabia should be the center of Sunni Islam.

Beyond Turkey, the shambles of the Trump White House MBS strategy can only be seen 鈥渁s a windfall for Iran,鈥� says Indyk, who notes that the region will now see the US strategy for countering Iran as a failure.

鈥淚n the end,鈥� he says, 鈥淢BS has really helped the Iranians instead of helping us.鈥�