海角大神

President Trump clearly places a high priority on US relations with Asia. His 12-day trip to the region beginning this weekend聽鈥� the longest by a US president since George H. W. Bush鈥檚 1991 marathon 鈥� attests to that.聽

And it鈥檚 a priority the American people share with the president: Surveys consistently show that Americans consider Asia more important than any other region for furthering US security and economic interests.

But much less clear nine months into the Trump presidency is what policies and overarching vision will guide US relations with Asia, home to most of the world鈥檚 fastest-growing economies and responsible for more than 40 percent of global economic output.

President Obama had his 鈥淎sia pivot,鈥� but Mr. Trump knocked the legs out from under that policy when he withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the 12-nation trade deal designed to secure US economic leadership in a region increasingly dominated by China and its hybrid statist-capitalist economic model.

But if TPP and the 鈥減ivot鈥� are out, leaders at every one of the stops Trump will make 鈥� Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang and Hanoi in Vietnam, and Manila, with regional summits adding more leaders to the mix 鈥� will want to know what is 鈥渋n.鈥�

With no clear policies as guideposts, leaders will be watching the unconventional American president for clues on key questions: What does 鈥淎merica First鈥� mean for relations, particularly economic, with Asia? What will Trump鈥檚 preference for bilateral relations mean for America鈥檚 traditional leadership role in multilateral arenas? Will a Trump focus on North Korea suck the air out of every other issue of interest with the US?

Lee Jin-man/AP

South Koreans hold banners with pictures of President Trump during a rally in Seoul on Nov. 3 to welcome him to the country. Two US supersonic bombers flew over the Korean Peninsula for bombing exercises that are also a show of force against North Korea ahead of the president's first official visit to Asia.

And underpinning them all: Is American leadership waxing or waning in Asia?

鈥淚 think the region is just very confused鈥� [it] wants the United States engaged in Asia-Pacific affairs generally, but they don鈥檛 want us there only as a military power,鈥� says Matthew Goodman, senior adviser for Asian economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington and a former National Security Council director for international economics.

鈥淭hey want us there engaged in all forms of affairs,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd they want us to have some sort of vision.鈥�

'America First' in Asia

Under Trump the US has been more forceful on security issues 鈥� countering China by sending out more freedom-of鈥搉avigation operations in the disputed South China Sea, for example, and above all jettisoning the Obama administration鈥檚 鈥渟trategic patience鈥� approach to North Korea in favor of more saber-rattling and diplomatic pressure.

But what the US under Trump hasn鈥檛 offered is an encompassing regional policy. It鈥檚 almost the inverse of the Obama approach to Asia, some regional experts say.聽

鈥淭he Obama administration packaged its Asia policy in a manner that was compelling and spoke to the region with the 鈥榩ivot,鈥� but then in many respects they didn鈥檛 follow through,鈥� says Michael Auslin, a fellow in contemporary Asia at Stanford University鈥檚 Hoover Institution in Washington.

鈥淭his administration is being more assertive in demonstrating a strong security role in the region, but what the Trump people have to do is clearly articulate all the facets of US Asia policy under this president,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey need to use this trip to allay the fears out there that this administration is backing out of Asia.鈥澛�

Obama鈥檚 Asia 鈥減ivot鈥� or 鈥渞ebalancing鈥� of US assets and interests from the Middle East to Asia stood on three pillars 鈥� enhanced security relations, deepened economic and trade ties, and closer engagement with Southeast Asia. Of those three, only the security pillar has been fully retained under Trump, experts say.

鈥淭he [economic] pillar 鈥� is gone with the withdrawal from TPP,鈥� says Amy Searight, director of CSIS鈥檚 Southeast Asia Program. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any economic leadership emanating from this administration.鈥�

Trump has spoken of replacing TPP with a series of bilateral trade deals with Asian countries, and聽 of the US-South Korea free trade deal after threatening to withdraw from it. But that approach has rattled a region that has prospered under security and economic multilateral frameworks 鈥� frameworks the US moved to strengthen and expand over the last decade in particular.聽

鈥淎 bilaterally focused, transactional, America-first economic policy is completely antithetical to what the Obama administration was trying to do, and what the region aspires to in terms of economic engagement,鈥� says Dr. Searight, who recently served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia.

As for Trump administration engagement with Southeast Asia, experts call it mixed. The president has underscored the region鈥檚 importance by lavishing attention on its leaders 鈥� but sometimes in ways that have left them unsure of the breadth of US policy and where their region fits in it.

After phone calls in April with a number of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders, Trump suggested Secretary of State Rex Tillerson invite ASEAN foreign ministers to Washington 鈥� which he did. But then the ministers were treated to a brief meeting focused on North Korea鈥檚 threat to the region rather than on clarifying US engagement in Asia.

鈥淵ou had the foreign ministers fly to Washington for an hour-long meeting with Secretary Tillerson, and 55 minutes of that hour-long meeting were spent on North Korea,鈥� says Brian Eyler, director of the Stimson Center鈥檚 Southeast Asia Program in Washington.

Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP

This undated file photo distributed on Sept. 3 by the North Korean government shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (2nd r.) at an undisclosed location in North Korea. Security and trade will loom large during President Trump鈥檚 first official visit to Asia. North Korea鈥檚 missile and nuclear weapons program is likely to dominate the first part of his trip, which includes stops in Seoul and Beijing as well as Tokyo.

鈥淚t ended up confirming the doubts about the administration鈥檚 bandwidth for the many other issues Southeast Asian leaders are worried about,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd it added to the questions about US leadership in the region.鈥�

'Indo-Pacific' policy

Senior officials counter that the administration has already taken numerous steps to underscore Asia鈥檚 critical importance to the US, including Trump鈥檚 meetings with a number of key leaders 鈥� those include Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe 鈥� and Tillerson鈥檚 recent Washington speech laying out US priorities for what he called the 鈥淚ndo-Pacific鈥� region.

Senior administration officials subsequently adopted the 鈥淚ndo-Pacific鈥� phrasing for press briefings on the president鈥檚 trip 鈥� raising questions about the signals the White House is trying to send.

For some Washington Asia experts, the use of 鈥淚ndo-Pacific鈥� is simply a way for Trump officials to differentiate their policy from Obama鈥檚 鈥淎sia-Pacific鈥� vision. Others say it signals Trump鈥檚 intention to raise India鈥檚 prominence in US Asia policy, an idea favored by US ally Japan, suggesting an effort to counterbalance an increasingly aggressive China with the region鈥檚 democratic and market-oriented heavyweights.

Michael Green, a former senior Asia official in the George W. Bush White House now at CSIS, says he hears three strains of Asia policy coming out of the administration: Tillerson鈥檚 鈥淚ndo-Pacific鈥� view, emphasizing working with allies and building an open and transparent economy to counter what Tillerson has called China鈥檚 鈥減redatory鈥� economics; another he describes as the 鈥渄ark sovereignty, America-first transactional 鈥榃e only win when others lose鈥� perspective鈥�; and the third, which surged briefly after President Xi鈥檚 visit with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in April, which is the idea of a 鈥渟trategic partnership鈥� with China.

Judging by administration officials鈥� comments, it鈥檚 the first option聽鈥� the more traditional, 鈥渄eepen relations with allies and partners鈥� option聽鈥� that appears to have the wind in its sails as Trump embarks on his trip.

But at the same time, the spectacle of 鈥渃lashing themes within the administration鈥� and Trump鈥檚 鈥渦npredictability鈥� will have the region watching every step of the nearly two-week journey for clues to where US Asia policy is headed, Mr. Green says. In particular, all eyes will be on the speech Trump is to deliver at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Da Nang Nov. 10 鈥� a speech a senior administration official says will 鈥減resent the United Sates vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.鈥�

That may sound like the harbinger of a traditional multilateral and highly engaged US Asia policy. But as Green notes, the lingering sense of US 鈥渦npredictability鈥� under this president 鈥渉as the Chinese a bit nervous; it also has friends and allies a bit nervous as well.鈥�