In rejecting Obama's Asia 'pivot,' did Trump leap before he looked?
-
Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
When President Trump withdrew the United States from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, he pulled the rug out from under the Obama administration鈥檚 much-vaunted but still largely aspirational 鈥減ivot to Asia.鈥�
With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Trump made clear what US relations with Southeast Asian nations are NOT going to be 鈥� a strategic alliance built on the framework of a multilateral trade and investment partnership with the US economy.
But beyond the symbolism of pounding a nail in TPP鈥檚 coffin, little has emerged from the 鈥淎merica First鈥� president about how he envisions business and trade relations with the most economically dynamic region of the globe.
The Trump administration will have the opportunity to start sketching out what will replace President Obama鈥檚 Asia pivot, particularly when it comes to economic relations, when the foreign ministers of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet Thursday with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Washington.
And with America鈥檚 jilted Southeast Asian TPP partners tempted to look elsewhere for big-power partnership 鈥� to China, but even to Japan and Canada, which recently have expressed growing interest in leading TPP into implementation without the US 鈥� that 鈥渙pportunity鈥� is coming none too soon, some regional experts say.
The Southeast Asian countries 鈥渨ill definitely be looking for what [the US] Plan B is,鈥� says Walter Lohman, director of the Heritage Foundation鈥檚 Asian Studies Center in Washington.
鈥淲ithdrawing from TPP was a blow to our engagement in the region, and it has tempted our Asian partners to contemplate looking elsewhere鈥� for leadership, he adds. 鈥淓ither we come up with that Plan B to engage the region, or we may risk being marginalized.鈥�
Campaign promise
Only four of the ASEAN countries are also TPP members 鈥� Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam 鈥� but a number of others, including Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, aspire to membership as their economies conform to TPP standards.
Trump fulfilled a campaign promise and pulled the US out of TPP 鈥� signed by the US under Mr. Obama 鈥� calling it another in a string of bad trade deals that allowed countries unfair access to the US economy without giving much of anything in return.
But since taking office, Trump has shifted his focus in regards to Asia largely to security concerns and in particular to North Korea鈥檚 nuclear threat. He has even told China, which he blasted during the campaign as an economic predator, that it can count on a better trade deal with the US if it acts to rein in its belligerent Korean ally.
The problem is, analysts say, that a sustained focus on security challenges over economic ties to the region could help perpetuate the 鈥渦nfair鈥� dynamic candidate Trump lambasted whereby the US provides much of the expensive security structure that has allowed the Asian-Pacific to prosper 鈥� without reaping a fair share of the economic benefits.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing that the administration is going to stay involved militarily, and we see them defend the right to access to and to navigate the [international] waters,鈥� Mr. Lohman says. 鈥淲hat is needed is a broad-based approach that includes the economic side with the security interests.鈥�
Competition for leadership role
Whether the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting with Mr. Tillerson will get a preview of such a comprehensive Asia policy 鈥� essentially Trump鈥檚 replacement of the Asia pivot 鈥� remains to be seen. But analysts say Tillerson should be mindful that while partnership with the US is highly desirable for Asian counties, US leadership is not the only game in town.
鈥淭here is competition for leadership in the region,鈥� says Philip Levy, a senior fellow on the global economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The region鈥檚 smaller countries are wary of China鈥檚 increasingly aggressive and expansionist stance on a number of territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, he notes. But that has not deterred them from exploring closer economic associations with the Asian behemoth.
With the US out of TPP, Asian countries see the China-promoted (though less ambitious) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, as the only game in town.
鈥淚 think the feeling for many of these countries is that while RCEP is less attractive and less ambitious than TPP, something beats nothing 鈥� and at the moment, the US has nothing on the table,鈥� Dr. Levy says.
Even TPP, once thought dead without the US, may have new life. Canada is holding talks this week with partners to see how the remaining 11 TPP countries might proceed, and Japan 鈥� the largest economy still in the deal 鈥� is expressing interest in keeping the trade pact alive.
In the meantime, advocates of a robust and comprehensive US partnership with Asian Pacific countries say they are seeing signs the Trump administration is looking to move beyond a rocky start with the region.
'Reset' with Australia
Even as Tillerson meets Thursday with ASEAN ministers in Washington, Trump will meet in New York with Australia鈥檚 prime minister, Malcom Turnbull, on the sidelines of a commemoration of the World War II Coral Sea battle 鈥� a battle (against Japan) that cemented the US-Australia strategic partnership.
The meeting is being portrayed in Australia as a 鈥渞eset鈥� of bilateral relations after a newly inaugurated Trump had an angry phone call with the Australian leader over an Obama agreement to resettle a number of refugees held in Australian camps.
The Trump administration has since agreed to honor the accord 鈥� a sign to some that the president now understands the broader importance of close relations with Australia, a faithful contributor to US-led security coalitions.
鈥淭his is all part of them [in the administration] getting their act together and putting things with important partners back on track,鈥� Lohman says. 鈥淎ustralia is one of the more vocal advocates of the freedom of the seas,鈥� he adds, 鈥渟o I think we鈥檙e seeing recognition of their solidarity with us in the Pacific.鈥�
What worries some is that the emergence of a comprehensive Asia policy 鈥� whatever Trump envisions to replace the Asia pivot 鈥� may take too long for some countries, like the ASEAN states.
鈥淏efore, US trade strategy followed a predictable pattern, there was pretty much a template that told partners where we were going and the obligations they鈥檇 have to fulfill,鈥� Levy says.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 a template Trump seems to have rejected, but we don鈥檛 know yet how he plans to replace it, other than to suggest that he prefers bilateral deals over multilateral arrangements,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut many bilateral negotiations would take a lot of time, and that could leave smaller counties like in ASEAN thinking they are at the end of a long line.鈥�
