Saudi Arabia: Mr. Obama's foreign policy conundrum
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| Washington
For much of his presidency, Barack Obama has encouraged America鈥檚 allies to take on more responsibility for their own defense.
Mr. Obama will get a firsthand look at how that central tenet of his foreign policy doctrine is working when he visits Saudi Arabia Wednesday. What he finds will likely drive home the point that allies left increasingly to their own initiative aren鈥檛 always going to act in ways that suit the United States.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the chief example is the war in neighboring Yemen, where the Saudis intervened more than a year ago against advancing Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The Saudis have become bogged down in a war that has caused tremendous suffering among civilians, paved the way for expansion of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and pitted the region鈥檚 two rival powers 鈥 Saudi Arabia and聽 Iran 鈥 in a proxy war.
The result is 鈥渁 kind of catch-22,鈥 says Frederick Wehrey, a Persian Gulf expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. 鈥淲e want them to be more responsible鈥 for themselves, he says, 鈥渂ut when they do it 鈥 it鈥檚 destabilizing.鈥
Obama is traveling to Riyadh as part of a pledge made a year ago at summit of Gulf countries at Camp David. There, he promised to follow up with a second summit this year in the region. That meeting of the US-Gulf Cooperation Council summit will take place Thursday.
In the April issue of The Atlantic magazine, the president lamented 鈥渇ree riders鈥 鈥 including Saudi Arabia 鈥 who traditionally have relied too heavily on the US for their national security.
But the Saudis have been charting a more independent course at least since the outset of the Obama presidency and the president鈥檚 focus on securing a nuclear deal with Iran. The disagreement now is over the path a more proactive Saudi Arabia should take.
鈥淚 find it a little difficult to understand how the president could accuse the Saudis of not quite pulling their weight,鈥 says Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst and Saudi Arabia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Pointing to the Saudis鈥 鈥渕uch more active military voice in the region鈥 鈥 specifically Saudi initiatives in Syria, Iraq, and now Yemen 鈥 Mr. Cordesman says tensions have more to do with divergent priorities, first and foremost over Iran.
Saudi defense spending is the equivalent of about 14 percent of the country鈥檚 gross domestic product, Cordesman says. That order of annual contribution, even as oil prices have plummeted, 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 exactly equate to standing aside.鈥
The Riyadh meeting should allow the two countries to iron out differences. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an opportunity to 鈥 stabilize the relationship and move it in a different direction,鈥 says Mr. Wehrey.
That could include 鈥渞eassurances to mitigate the fallout鈥 from The Atlantic interview. Obama is also expected to emphasize that the US is, like the Saudis, deeply concerned about Iran 鈥 both its pursuit of missile development and recent missile tests, and its involvement in Syria and Yemen.
In the聽 鈥測ou can do more鈥 column, Wehrey says, Obama is likely to suggest that the Saudis step up support for the fight against the Islamic State 鈥 particularly financially 鈥 and move forward on domestic political reforms.
The Saudis, along with other Gulf leaders at Thursday's meeting, will have in the back of their minds that the American leader is on his way out.
鈥淭he end of the Obama administration can鈥檛 come quickly enough for these leaders,鈥 says Perry Cammack, a regional expert at the Carnegie Endowment. But the next president might not give them what they want, either.聽
鈥淭he hope is that with a new [US] leader, things will revert back to where they were for decades 鈥 and I鈥檓 not sure that鈥檚 the case,鈥 says Mr. Cammack, a former Middle East analyst on the State Department鈥檚 policy planning staff.
Obama is likely to be quizzed about a topsy-turvy presidential campaign that has America鈥檚 international partners聽uneasy.
But while Islamist extremism and Syria鈥檚 civil war will keep the US engaged in the Middle East, Cammack and other say,聽other factors 鈥 like falling US dependence on Middle East oil and continuing implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement 鈥 will also mean that the good old days of US-Gulf relations are likely gone for good.