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When the Iran nuclear deal was reached in July, President Obama and other administration officials listed among the agreement鈥檚 attributes the potential for a less confrontational relationship with Tehran 鈥� indeed, for a new era of cooperation between Iran and the West.

Things haven鈥檛 turned out that way so far.

This week, the United States, joined by France and other European powers, took Iran to the United Nations Security Council over Iran鈥檚 test launch this month of an intercontinental missile 鈥� one deemed capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 鈥� in violation of a Security Council resolution.

And in recent weeks Iran has ramped up its involvement in the Syrian conflict, building up both its ground forces and its proxy army Hezbollah to take back territory from United States- and Western-backed rebels fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

That鈥檚 hardly the stuff of a transformed relationship.

What Iran鈥檚 provocative actions do suggest is a conscious effort to demonstrate both to conservatives at home and allies internationally that the nuclear deal does not portend a compliant Iran, regional security analysts say.

鈥淲hat you have to expect is a stiffening of the Iranian position, a hardening really,鈥� says one European diplomat, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive issues candidly.聽鈥淭he regime in Tehran will be obliged to show to the world and to its radicals that it has not caved to the Americans.鈥澛�

What's behind Iran's 'hardening' stance?

A further sign of Iran鈥檚 鈥渉ardening鈥� stance towards the US and the West came Wednesday in a letter from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The supreme leader twinned an endorsement of the nuclear deal with renewed warnings that the US is not to be trusted.

In the letter, Ayatollah Khamenei advised Mr. Rouhani that the intent of the US in reaching the deal was to 鈥渇ulfill its hostile purposes towards the Islamic Republic.鈥�

Such warnings may be aimed in part at Iran鈥檚 moderates 鈥� including Rouhani, who has suggested the nuclear deal opens the door to a new relationship with the US. But they may also be designed to please hard-liners who view any dealings with the 鈥淕reat Satan鈥� as a betrayal of the Iranian revolution, some regional experts say.

鈥淎ll of this is related to throwing a sop to the hard-liners,鈥� says Michael Eisenstadt, an Iran expert and director of military and security studies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Recent actions and tough words are 鈥渁 signal to the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the like that nothing has changed. It says, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to continue to pursue our interests.鈥� 鈥�

The recent missile test in particular was designed to let those who are unhappy with the nuclear deal 鈥渂low off some steam,鈥� he adds, 鈥渨hile allowing Iran to show some might.鈥�

Iran is clearly feeling a burden has been lifted with the signing of the nuclear deal, Mr. Eisenstadt says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 definitely a greater sense of self-confidence, and maybe they feel they have a freer hand to act with sanctions coming off,鈥� he says.聽

He points to reports that Iran has approved a 33 percent jump in defense spending for the coming year.

What Iran is doing in Syria

But Eisenstadt is less convinced that this explains Iran鈥檚 ratcheting up in Syria. Rather, he suspects it was the mounting evidence of Mr. Assad鈥檚 dire straits, and the growing risk of seeing his forces lose the war.

鈥淚 suspect their doubling down in Syria is less a reflection of their own increased confidence than it is a realization that their ally was under serious threat,鈥� he says.聽

Clearly, Iran is more deeply involved in Syria than it was a few months ago,聽making itself a key factor in the conflict鈥檚 resolution. 鈥淭he Iranian forces [and their proxies] have been reinforced substantially,鈥� notes the European diplomat. 鈥淭hey are the shock troops, the front line in most of the offensives.鈥�

One factor that could end up a constraint on Iran鈥檚 expanding influence in the region is the renewed and strengthening Russian imprint. Eisenstadt says the Iranians played no small role in convincing Russia to jump into Syria on Assad鈥檚 behalf, but he also believes the day will come when the interests of the two diverge.

鈥淩ight now they are working together well, the Russians don鈥檛 want to be involved on the ground, and the Iranians and the militias are doing that for them,鈥� he says.

Western diplomats who are in touch with the Russians on Syria say the Russians insist they are calling the shots over the Iranians in the Syrian intervention. But even if that鈥檚 true now, some are not sure how long that will last.

鈥淩ight now, the Iranians are relieved the Russians are there, and I don鈥檛 see any friction, but that鈥檚 bound to change,鈥� Eisenstadt says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a fair amount of mistrust between the two. It鈥檚 not a natural alliance if you consider the considerable historical baggage.鈥�

The path ahead

More broadly, it remains unclear whether Iran鈥檚 post-deal 鈥渟tiffening鈥� is simply a short-term play to pacify hard-liners or if it is here to stay.

For those who argue that Iran will not change so long as it is ruled by religious hard-liners, Iran鈥檚 post-deal activism will only strengthen as an emboldened regime garners billions of dollars in sanctions relief. For 鈥渘ew start鈥� advocates like Mr. Obama, change in the regime鈥檚 global approach is possible, but it will measured in more than a few months.

Two tests of which camp may be right are on the horizon. During the next few months, Iran must take specific steps to reduce the scope of its nuclear program to get sanctions relief. And聽next February, Rouhani will be looking for reformists to make considerable gains in parliamentary elections in part as a result of the promise of a 鈥渘ew start鈥� with America inherent in the nuclear deal.