海角大神

Ever since Ukraine鈥檚 former pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych was run out of the country by pro-Western protesters in February, Russia has referred to the interim government in Kiev as an unelected 鈥渏unta.鈥�

So the US and other Western backers of a stable and democratic Ukraine are looking to Sunday鈥檚 presidential election to give the country a leadership reflecting the will of the Ukrainian people and whose legitimacy can鈥檛 be easily dismissed.

It could be a tall order, however. While the western bulk of the country is peaceful and ready for balloting, the eastern industrial provinces where separatists have taken hold have seen renewed violence in recent days. Voting in several self-proclaimed independent 鈥渞epublics鈥� is looking problematic at best.

Still, if Ukraine can pull off a largely 鈥渘ational鈥� election that thousands of international observers in the country deem to be fair and free, that will go a long way to giving the country a legitimate government that the West can assist political and economically, and Russia cannot easily dismiss, regional experts say.

鈥淭he question is really what Ukraine needs from these elections, and that鈥檚 a large turnout that reflects as much as possible turnout from throughout the country, and voting that the thousands of observers in the country deem to be fair and free,鈥� says Lee Feinstein, senior fellow in transatlantic relations at the German Marshall Fund in Washington. 鈥淚f the elections are carried out in such a way that gives additional legitimacy to new Ukrainian government, that鈥檚 the most important thing.鈥�

A key factor determining the election鈥檚 success will be Russia. The world will be watching closely for 鈥渆vidence鈥� that Russia is not acting to interfere, Mr. Feinstein says, 鈥渘ot trying to depress turnout or to actively encourage [the separatists] in the east.鈥�

US senior officials are calling on Russia to exercise its influence in the east and pressure the pro-Russia separatists to allow the democratic process to take place. But Russia, while claiming it supports Sunday鈥檚 election, is also expressing strong doubts that the outcome can be considered truly 鈥渘ational鈥� when security operations targeting the separatists are under way.

鈥淲hat鈥檚 at stake here is whether or not Russia is going to decide to respect the right of Ukrainians to be able to decide their future,鈥� Secretary of State John Kerry said earlier this week.

The US is also underscoring the large number of international election observers in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials claim that more than 200 election commissions are 鈥渦p and running鈥� across the country, even in some of the separatist strongholds.

鈥淓ven in Donetsk and Luhansk, 23 of 34 district election commissions are functioning despite the difficult environment,鈥� said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki on Wednesday. She also noted that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the principal forum for dialogue between Western and Eastern Europe, has 1,000 election monitors in Ukraine. 聽

Russian officials, on the other hand, are sounding less optimistic about the election鈥檚 prospects. 鈥淥bviously, election of the head of state is a step in the right direction,鈥� Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said Thursday. 鈥淏ut it is vital to ensure that these elections are really nationwide,鈥� he said, adding that an election is 鈥渉ard to imagine鈥� with 鈥減unitive operations鈥� under way in several regions.

Not just Ukrainians, but the region 鈥� and American credibility and influence in it 鈥� have a lot riding on Sunday鈥檚 elections, some Europe analysts say. 鈥淔ree and fair elections are only the first, but absolute necessary, step on Ukraine鈥檚 way toward stability and prosperity,鈥� says Michal Baranowski, director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund.

The elections, he adds, are 鈥渁lso a test of Western resolve" to 鈥渟how whether the EU and the United States can hold Russia to its promise not to provoke violence and let the democratic process take place throughout Ukraine.鈥�

Feinstein says a successful election can be a 鈥減ivot point鈥� that leads to a more stable Ukraine and a fresh, legitimate government that can begin to tackle Ukraine鈥檚 daunting problems. Such a government, he adds, is one the US and the European Union 鈥渨ill be able to offer more robust economic and political support,鈥� something he says will be key to the country鈥檚 future path.