海角大神

When Japan scored Caroline Kennedy as the new US ambassador to Tokyo last year, Japanese officials and media were ecstatic. That President Obama had named such a globally recognized figure and the daughter of a widely beloved and glamorous president to represent the United States in Japan was seen as a sign of the country鈥檚 enduring importance to Washington.

But that was then. Now on the eve of Mr. Obama鈥檚 state visit to Tokyo this week, Japan is back to openly fretting about its place on America鈥檚 priority list 鈥� particularly in comparison to rising rival China.

The reason? When Obama arrives Wednesday evening, he鈥檒l disembark Air Force One solo 鈥� without first lady Michelle Obama. Obama will be the first US president to come to Japan on a state visit in 18 years, but never mind: Michelle鈥檚 absence has thrown Tokyo into a tizzy.

Media commentators, social media discussions, academics, even some officials, named and unnamed, are wringing their hands over Mrs. Obama鈥檚 decision to sit out not just Japan but her husband鈥檚 entire eight-day Asia trip, which will also take in South Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

At least one miffed member of the Diet, Japan鈥檚 parliament, has gone so far as to become snarky 鈥� so not like Japan 鈥� and intimate that the president鈥檚 solo travel must say something about the state of the Obama marriage.

But for most of those doing the chattering, Mrs. Obama鈥檚 absence is a woeful sign of Japan鈥檚 retreat from the top tier of America鈥檚 allies.

No doubt the first lady's no-show would have disappointed and prompted speculation under just about any circumstances. But what has really thrown the Japanese for a loop is that her failure to grace Japan with her presence comes within a month of Mrs. Obama鈥檚 widely covered trip with daughters, Sasha and Malia, to (shudder at the thought) China.

To the Japanese, the sight of Michelle jumping rope with Chinese kids, feeding pandas, trying out tai-chi, and meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife, Peng Liyuan, was more than insult added to injury. It was proof of China鈥檚 ascendency to the top rung of America鈥檚 strategic priorities and Japan鈥檚 fall to second class.

White House officials say it鈥檚 nothing of the sort, of course. Obama doesn鈥檛 accept just any foreign trip he makes to take on the stature of a state visit, they note. The fact his Japan stop rises to that level and will include an audience with Emperor Akihito says a lot about Japan鈥檚 importance to the US, they add.

Aides to Mrs. Obama note that their boss has limited her time away from her daughters over the course of the Obama presidency 鈥� a reason cited for the relatively few overseas trips the first lady takes with her husband. The last lengthy trip Mrs. Obama made with the president was last summer to Africa 鈥� a trip that also included the Obama daughters. And don鈥檛 forget that the Obama women鈥檚 China trip occurred while the daughters were on spring break, the aides add.

Of course all the analyzing and speculation 鈥� that Obama is suggesting his lack of connection with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe by coming stag, or that Michelle is hinting at her disapproval of this or that Japanese policy or reality (perhaps whaling? or maybe the relative subjugation of Japanese women?) by staying home 鈥� may melt away once Obama lands in Tokyo and takes advantage of every occasion to laud what he鈥檒l call the strong and enduring US-Japan partnership.

The real test may come next fall, when Obama is expected to visit China. If Mrs. Obama accompanies the president on that trip, the Japanese may very well hark back to the first lady鈥檚 no-show and start up the hand-wringing all over again.