海角大神

When Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sits down in Cairo this weekend with Egypt鈥檚 first freely-elected president, she might have preferred he was a representative of the country鈥檚 secular democratic political sector.

Instead she will be face to face with President Mohammed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood.

But with the United States having supported the Egyptian revolution that swept Hosni Mubarak from power and resulted in the election of Mr. Morsi, Secretary Clinton will have no choice but to associate the US with the rise to power of political Islam in the traditional leader of the Arab world.

聽In her highly symbolic two-day visit beginning Saturday, Clinton鈥檚 task will be to demonstrate America鈥檚 support for the new democratic path Egypt has embarked on 鈥� even as she delicately underscores the priorities the US will hold to as it builds a new relationship with leaders it didn鈥檛 prefer to see in power.

鈥淭his was never our favorite result, but on the other hand Secretary Clinton has been at the forefront of our urging聽Egypt towards democracy, so it would be hard to say now that we aren鈥檛 going to recognize the democratic result,鈥� says Edward Walker, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel. 鈥淚 think she understands we have to get [a problematic history with the Muslim Brotherhood] behind us, and see how we can move forward.鈥�

At the same time, Clinton will remind Egypt鈥檚 leaders 鈥� both Morsi and the military council of generals that has yet to relinquish much of its power to the country鈥檚 new civilian leadership 鈥� that the world is looking to the governing powers to serve all Egyptians and uphold the country鈥檚 international commitments.

By all Egyptians, she will mean women and religious minorities (Coptic 海角大神s) in particular. By international commitments, she will especially mean Egypt鈥檚 US-brokered peace treaty with Israel.

Clinton was adamant about personally delivering America鈥檚 message, State Department officials say, even though in the eyes of some regional analysts this is not the best moment for highlighting the state of US-Egypt relations. American influence is as low as it鈥檚 been in perhaps four decades, some say 鈥� since the end of Gamal Nasser鈥檚 rule in 1970 鈥� and Egyptians, from the leaders on down, are focused on domestic issues.

But other experts say this attention to the domestic scene 鈥� which more than anything is a focus on jump-starting the economy and creating jobs for millions of young Egyptians 鈥� provides a potential opening for the US to wield some influence where it otherwise has little.

鈥淒omestic issues are first and foremost for the Egyptians, and supreme among those issues is how to revive the economy 鈥� and that鈥檚 where we potentially have some influence,鈥� says Patrick Clawson, director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淭hey do need money for that.鈥�

Earlier this month the State Department鈥檚 No. 2 official, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, traveled to Cairo to lay the groundwork for Clinton鈥檚 trip, and after a meeting with Morsi suggested what might be the contours of a US deal with Egypt鈥檚 new leaders: The US would go to bat for Egypt in the international financial institutions (for example for a debt-relief package) with the understanding that Egypt will enshrine democratic principles and women鈥檚 and minorities鈥� rights in the new constitution it is writing and in practice.

Egypt would also be expected to maintain its state of peace with Israel and enforce all terms of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

But some analysts like Mr. Clawson say they are concerned that Clinton will emphasize a need to conclude Egypt鈥檚 political uncertainties, rather than honing in on the importance of building a democratic Egypt.

鈥淢y concern is that her message is going to be, 鈥楩inish up this transition to democratic rule,鈥� when I think a better message at this point would be, 鈥業t鈥檚 most important that you have an inclusive process that listens to every element of your deeply divided society,鈥欌�� Clawson says. 鈥淲e鈥檝e often made the point that an election does not of its own make a democracy, and I think we need to deliver that message in Cairo.鈥澛�

Certainly Clinton will arrive in Cairo at a moment of political turmoil, with Morsi, the courts, and the military in a kind of three-way tug-of-war over power and authority. But that shouldn鈥檛 have to stop her from expressing US support for Egypt鈥檚 democracy 鈥� and for seeing Egyptians resolve their own political difference, says Ambassador Walker, now a professor of global political theory at Hamilton College in Clinton, N.Y.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no question she鈥檒l be visiting with things in a very confused status, she鈥檒l have to be very careful how she handles her approach so that she doesn鈥檛 appear to be taking sides,鈥� Walker says. But at the same time, he says, Clinton should be encouraged by how the vying powers have addressed their differences so far.

鈥淭he Egyptians seem to be able to work these things out themselves, this is not a violent confrontation,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e sitting down together and working things out.鈥�

Yet on one issue Clinton simply can鈥檛 afford to stay on the sidelines, and that鈥檚 the matter of how Egypt鈥檚 new leaders plan to handle the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. While the military council has expressed no interest in touching the treaty, Morsi in the presidential campaign called for reopening negotiations and pressing for amendments.

Clinton will likely press Morsi behind closed doors on the importance of leaving the treaty untouched 鈥� even as she hopes that the new president鈥檚 focus on domestic issues will push any talk of amending the treaty to the background.

As Walker knows from his own ambassadorial experience, Congress will waste no time jumping into the fray on any sign of trouble for Israel. Already 35 members of Congress have called for withholding all aid to Egypt 鈥� including $1.5 billion in annual military assistance 鈥� until its new government reaffirms Egypt鈥檚 support for all its treaties and for peace with Israel, and recognizes 鈥淚srael鈥檚 right to exist as a Jewish state.鈥�

Says Walker, 鈥淣othing would turn Congress [against Egypt] faster than some effort to undo the [peace] treaty.鈥�