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A bitter stalemate at the United Nations over Syria means the deadly conflict pitting the Assad regime against its armed opponents is likely to continue until Russia believes that President Bashar al-Assad can no longer hang on, regional experts say.

鈥淚f the Russians become utterly convinced that the regime is going down the drain, then the US and its allies can convince them that their best bet is going with the future,鈥� says Wayne White, an analyst with the Middle East Institute in Washington and a former State Department policy planner.

鈥淏ut we鈥檙e clearly not there yet,鈥� he adds, 鈥渟o unfortunately it looks like the fighting and killing will continue.鈥�

The UN Security Council is debating two rival resolutions on Syria. One is backed by the Arab League and Western powers including the US and calls for Mr. Assad to step aside while other political factions negotiate a settlement. A Russian version envisions ending the violence through negotiations between the Assad government and the opposition.

The Arab League is delaying its scheduled Feb. 5聽meeting on Syria until Feb. 11 to give the Security Council a chance to act.

Russia has already said it considers any call for Assad to step down as tantamount to 鈥渞egime change鈥� and thus a red line it will not cross. As one of five veto-wielding Security Council members, it can also prevent the council from crossing that line.

Moscow opposes any international action for two reasons: its historic opposition to outside interference in countries鈥� internal affairs (though it has often not included former Soviet states in that policy); and its long diplomatic and military ties to Syria, its last foothold of influence in the region.

Mr. White says he believes the Assad regime is 鈥渄oomed,鈥� but adds that the Russians are 鈥渘ot yet willing to accept that 鈥� and are in a place where they are trying desperately to protect their own equities.鈥澛�

Joined by China, Russia vetoed a Syria resolution in October. International human-rights groups say that the rate of killings in Syria has doubled since then, with the UN estimating that more than 5,400 Syrians have died in the nearly year-old conflict.聽

Most diplomats and experts see little chance that Russia will support or at least abstain from voting on a measure calling for Assad鈥檚 departure. They also say that a resolution without such a reference would be almost meaningless.

Some diplomats are floating the idea of a 鈥渉umanitarian corridor鈥� inside Syria where civilians would presumably be safe, or a 鈥渂uffer zone鈥� along the Syrian-Turkish border where refugees from Syria鈥檚 mounting violence could gather.聽But it is unclear what international entity would enact and enforce such measures in the absence UN action.

NATO says Syria is very different from Libya and is unlikely to involve itself in the conflict, even though Turkey, where tens of thousands of Syrians have fled, is a NATO member.聽The Arab League, which has suspended Syria鈥檚 membership and is now calling for Assad to step aside to allow elections to determine a new government, has no means of enforcing such measures. It recently had to withdraw its modest Syria observer mission in defeat.

On Tuesday at the UN in New York, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Russia鈥檚 repeated comparison of Syria to Libya is a 鈥渇alse analogy,鈥� and she insisted that Western powers have no intention of intervening in Syria.

But White says it鈥檚 not unreasonable for the Russians to 鈥渟uspect鈥� the West鈥檚 UN measures are about regime change, because they are 鈥� even if the means are different from what took place in Libya.

He says: 鈥淭he Russians are going to balk at anything useful in terms of collective action to speed up the departure of the Assad regime, and that鈥檚 really what all the others want.鈥�