NATO in Libya: why the alliance is staying
| Washington
The word from NATO defense ministers Thursday that the Alliance is not ready end its Libya campaign reflects a two-fold objective: It encourages the new Libyan leadership to continue moving forward in the country鈥檚 political transition, and it dashes any hopes of remaining loyalists to Muammar Qaddafi that international oversight is about to end.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing a balancing in NATO鈥檚 message to Libya that tells the transitional leaders there won鈥檛 be any undue meddling in their affairs, while also letting the loyalists know that [NATO] is not pulling out,鈥� says Fred Wehrey, a Libya expert at the RAND Corp. in Santa Monica, Calif. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e trying to wean the new leaders and encourage them to walk on their own, while letting the holdouts know that nothing has changed that would encourage them to rally.鈥�
NATO Defense ministers met in Brussels Thursday, and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said afterward that a consensus formed around four conditions to be met before the mission could end:
- An end to the armed resistance from loyalists in holdouts like Sirte, Colonel Qaddafi鈥檚 birthplace, and Bani Walid.
- Successfully terminating the ability of remaining Qaddafi forces to attack civilians.
- Assuring Qaddafi鈥檚 inability to command forces.
- Certainty about the new leadership鈥檚 ability to secure the country.
The NATO ministers met even as the fugitive Qaddafi issued another audio message in which he encouraged Libyans 鈥渢o go out into the squares and the streets in all the cities in their millions鈥� to rise up against the Transitional National Council, the country鈥檚 interim government.
鈥淗ow did it get its legitimacy?鈥� Qaddafi asks of the council in the poor-quality tape. 鈥淒id the Libyan people elect them?鈥�
NATO has extended its Libya mission several times as Qaddafi鈥檚 resistance has proven to be stronger than many anticipated. But RAND鈥檚 Mr. Wehrey says six months 鈥� the duration of the NATO mission so far 鈥� is also not a long time for an opposition to organize and assume a country鈥檚 security, especially when it is following on the heels of an authoritarian regime in power for decades.
鈥淚鈥檝e been a bit surprised at how long the holdouts have endured,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut you also have to remember that the new leadership is reorganizing the country politically and working to get services going again, all these things while trying to establish security. These things take time.鈥�
The TNC had set a calendar for a political transition that would culminate in elections before mid-2012, but the transitional leaders have suspended that timetable until the military campaign against Sirte is decided.
TNC forces attempted to enter the city Thursday, but were repelled by sniper fire.
Perhaps the biggest test for the new leadership will be crafting a political transition that encompasses all of Libya鈥檚 disparate factions, including Islamists and Berbers, analysts say.
But that task is on hold in the uncertainty of the loyalists鈥� resistance 鈥� an uncertainty NATO is trying address with its commitment to maintaining its Libya mission.
