Obama's pressure on Mubarak could cost US regional influence
| Washington
President Obama has shifted increasingly over the past week toward the demand by Egypt鈥檚 anti-regime protesters that President Hosni Mubarak resign immediately.
And as he has, a nagging question has dogged White House deliberations: What will be the impact on relations in the region 鈥� and on vital American interests 鈥� if the over-arching perception among leaders is of the US abandoning a longtime friend?
As the US looks more and more like it is 鈥渢hrowing in the towel鈥� on Mr. Mubarak, one unwanted result could be a building mistrust between the US and countries it relies on for cooperation on issues ranging from international terrorism and the flow of energy to the Arab-Israeli peace process and the containment of Iran, experts in the region say.
Exclusive Monitor Photos of Egypt Protests
鈥淥ther authoritarian governments will view with deep unease how quickly the US government appears to have abandoned its closest friend in the region,鈥� says David Schenker, director of the Arab politics program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淲e鈥檒l see the effects of this for years to come.鈥�
The depth of the administration鈥檚 concern could be read between the lines of a White House statement Thursday summarizing Mr. Obama鈥檚 telephone conversation a day earlier with Yemen鈥檚 President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Obama called 鈥渢o welcome the significant reform measures鈥� President Saleh announced Wednesday, including a commitment not to run for reelection in 2013. Obama also stressed that Saleh 鈥渘ow needs to follow up his pledge with concrete actions.鈥�
And by the way, the readout said, the US president also told the Yemeni leader that 鈥渋t is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to protect innocent lives in Yemen as well as abroad.鈥�
In other words, heed your people鈥檚 demands, but don鈥檛 forget our interests while you鈥檙e at it.
US principles vs. interests
It鈥檚 a tough, perhaps even unwinnable tug-of-war between principles and interests, some US foreign policy experts say.
鈥淲e have a stark dilemma in our own minds between 鈥� how long you stand by an old friend, and keeping Egypt on our side in our regional strategy,鈥� says Charles Freeman, a longtime US diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really an irreconcilable contradiction.鈥�
The Obama administration has so far followed a bifurcated approach of supporting both the popular uprisings sweeping across the region and friendly regimes moving to implement reforms.
鈥淚 think we鈥檒l see the dual track for a while,鈥� says Mr. Schenker. 鈥淭he US is caught between these two competing and in some ways contradictory priorities鈥� for popular expression and political change on the one hand, and regional stability on the other, he says. And no matter who replaces Mubarak in Egypt, he adds, the new leaders are likely to remember the US actions.
鈥淲hat if Mubarak goes but a part of the regime aligned with his regime and the military wins?鈥� Schenker says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to be cautious about the US. And if it truly is a more representative government,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢hey simply aren鈥檛 going to be as supportive of US policies as鈥� Mubarak was.
The US may support the people鈥檚 aspirations, but at the same time the reality is that diplomacy is primarily a government-to-government exercise, others note 鈥� and America鈥檚 friends won鈥檛 soon forget US actions in the upheaval of 2011, they say.
'US power would crumble'
鈥淥ur soothsayers should also understand that when our other Arab friends watch us help remove Mubarak from power by not backing him, they'll believe that they'll be next on the list if they run into trouble,鈥� wrote Leslie Gelb, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, in a recent Daily Beast post. 鈥淯S power would crumble in the region.鈥�
Despite such dire predictions, others say the administration is making the best it can of a bad situation. 鈥淭he administration has been doing a skillful job of obfuscating this issue by not making a clear choice,鈥� says Ambassador Freeman.
And Schenker gives the administration good marks for focusing on the established military-to-military relations in the case of Egypt as a way of maintaining good bilateral relations no matter the political makeup of the next government.
鈥淚 see the US trying to further leverage the good military-to-military relations we have, and that鈥檚 a positive move,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he problem is that while we can count on the Egyptian military to continue to want access to the US military for its officer corps and to want access to US weapons,鈥� he adds, 鈥渙ther countries don鈥檛 have that same close relationship.鈥�
One early conclusion among some regional experts is that perhaps the starkest legacy of an era of mistrust will be diminished American influence. 鈥淭he willingness of local leaders to become as dependent on the US as Hosni Mubarak was is likely to be repudiated in the future,鈥� Freeman says. 鈥淢y guess is we are entering a new era of greatly diminished American prestige and clout.鈥�
