North Korea: Latest rant could be tied to political transition
| Washington
North Korea鈥檚 latest fustigations 鈥� on Monday, it accused the US of aggressive military moves in the zone separating the two Koreas 鈥� are best heard as the defensive posturing of a regime in political transition, experts on the reclusive state say.
Get used to such hyperbolic rants, these experts add, since a transition of power from the ailing Kim Jong-il is expected to stretch over the coming months.
Before Monday鈥檚 declaration, the North Korean regime threatened to ramp up production of nuclear weaponry. This was in response to the Group of Eight leaders鈥� condemnation this past weekend of the North鈥檚 recent sinking of a South Korean warship.
鈥淲hen any country goes through a leadership transition, but particularly in the case of one-man-rule like North Korea鈥檚, the tendency is to pull back, hunker down, and offer displays of strength,鈥� says Jim Walsh, a North Korea expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology鈥檚 Security Studies Program in Cambridge. 鈥淭hey are rallying people around the flag at a delicate moment,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd we shouldn鈥檛 expect it to stop tomorrow.鈥�
It鈥檚 not just that a new generation of young military officers has been pressing for a more aggressive approach to the United States and the rest of the outside world as rumors build of an ailing Mr. Kim. (Some analysts cite the March sinking of South Korea鈥檚 Cheonan as just such an act.) As Mr. Walsh notes, the North鈥檚 ruling Korean Workers鈥� Party has announced a major meeting for September 鈥� an event that could also cause the regime to offer more chest thumping.
Monday鈥檚 warning from Pyongyang over what it claimed was movement by the US of 鈥渉eavy weapons鈥� into the demilitarized-zone 鈥渢ruce village鈥� of Panmunjom was the kind of 鈥減rovocation鈥� that CIA Director Leon Panetta said Sunday was par for the course from a 鈥渞ogue regime.鈥�
Appearing on ABC鈥檚 鈥淭his Week,鈥� Mr. Panetta said recent actions by the North 鈥� including the sinking of the Cheonan, in which 46 South Korean sailors died 鈥� could be seen as Kim trying to establish the leadership bona fides of his youngest son, Kim Jong-un 鈥� in particular with the military.
鈥淭he skirmishes that are going on are in part related to trying to establish credibility for the son,鈥� Panetta said. 鈥淎nd that makes it a dangerous period.鈥�
That may make this seem like exactly the wrong time for diplomatic overtures to Pyongyang. Indeed, the United Nations Security Council is expected to follow up on the G8 leaders鈥� condemnatory statement over the Cheonan with its own tough statement. President Obama says he wants the Council to produce a 鈥渃rystal-clear acknowledgment鈥� of the North鈥檚 act 鈥� something that Beijing, a Pyongyang ally, seems less prone to do. (For its part, North Korea denies involvement in the sinking.)
Some members of Congress have even called for North Korea to be reinstated on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. The Bush administration dropped North Korea from the list in October 2008. But the State Department said Monday that, while Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton would evaluate the North鈥檚 recent actions, the Cheonan incident was not likely to trigger a return to the list.
鈥淎s a general matter, a state military attack on a military target would not be considered an act of international terrorism,鈥� the State Department Office of the Spokesman said in a statement Monday.
Yet as counterintuitive as it may seem, says Walsh of MIT, this may in fact be the moment to initiate a calming diplomatic dialogue with the North 鈥� so that Pyongyang鈥檚 urge to show some muscle doesn鈥檛 get out of hand.
鈥淧eople talk about the wisdom of our current policy of 鈥榮trategic patience,鈥� and that might be a good policy in the abstract,鈥� he says of the current US approach, which calls for waiting out the North鈥檚 period of political transition. 鈥淏ut I鈥檓 beginning to worry about strategic patience when Kim Jong Il could die at any moment. If a train is heading for a wreck,鈥� he adds, 鈥渏ust sitting on the train and doing nothing is not a good idea.鈥�
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