North Korea hostility toward the South puts China in a spot
| Washington
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visits South Korea Wednesday to express American support for Seoul in its escalating crisis with North Korea. But it may be another visit to the South Korean capital 鈥� by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday 鈥� that does more to determine whether tensions continue to rise between the two Koreas.
US support for South Korea was never in doubt. But China 鈥� which values its ties to each of the Koreas, though for different reasons 鈥� will be watched for its ability, as a rising regional and global power, to navigate a tricky situation.
Premier Wen will encounter a South Korea unhappy that Beijing has not publicly condemned North Korea for the March sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, which killed 46 South Korean sailors. China鈥檚 first priority is to avoid a destabilization of North Korea that could send thousands of refugees over the border from its impoverished and backward neighbor, Asia analysts say. But China also wants to avoid damaging its growing economic and cultural ties to the much more dynamic South.
鈥淭his trip is fortuitous, because it is very likely to put more pressure on the Chinese to take a position that is more favorable to South Korea,鈥� says James Clay Moltz, a Northeast Asia security expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. 鈥淭he Chinese haven鈥檛 wanted to do anything to shake up the North, but at the same time they are not eager to upset the South Koreans, so this incident has put them in an uncomfortable bind.鈥�
Wen鈥檚 trip has been planned for months to allow him to represent China at a weekend trilateral summit with South Korea and Japan.
China鈥檚 cautious response to the Korean crisis so far has not only irritated South Korea, but it has also disappointed Secretary Clinton. She had hoped to win Beijing鈥檚 support for UN Security Council action that would signal to Pyongyang that its 鈥減rovocative鈥� acts will be answered.
Beijing鈥檚 handling of the crisis has also prompted doubts among China analysts about the rising economic power鈥檚 readiness for a larger global political role.
鈥淲hile most understand China鈥檚 dilemma, many see Beijing鈥檚 鈥榤uddle through鈥� strategy as a disappointing symbol of its inability to play a leadership role in East Asia commensurate with its rise,鈥� says Victor Cha, who holds the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
鈥淐hina鈥檚 behavior thus far regarding the Cheonan has been clumsy, weak, and anachronistic,鈥� says Mr. Cha, in a posting on the CSIS website. This 鈥渋nability to make hard choices鈥� is reflective of Beijing鈥檚 policy of treating the two Koreas as two separate issues 鈥� a policy Cha says is rupturing under the weight of the Cheonan crisis.
Clinton, who wrapped up two days of US-China strategic and economic dialogue in Beijing Tuesday, put a positive spin on the Chinese government鈥檚 response so far to the Korean crisis 鈥� reflecting US hopes of winning Chinese support for Security Council action down the road.
鈥淭he Chinese understand the gravity of this situation,鈥� she said at a press conference following the dialogue鈥檚 close. 鈥淚 think it is absolutely clear that China not only values but is very committed to regional stability,鈥� she added, 鈥渁nd it shares with us the goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and a period of careful consideration in order to determine the best way forward in dealing with North Korea as a result of this latest incident.鈥�
Clinton also said, 鈥淲e expect to be working together with China in responding to North Korea鈥檚 provocative action, and promoting stability in the region.鈥� But the lack of any joint pronouncement on the issue suggests that Washington and Beijing remain far apart on what that response should be.
China in the end may go along with a multilateral expression of disapproval toward North Korea, Dr. Moltz, says, but it won鈥檛 be anything strong. 鈥淢y guess is they will eventually agree to a very watered-down critical statement鈥� from the Security Council, he says. 鈥淏ut the focus will be on regret for the incident, rather than any robust condemnation [of the North].鈥�
He says the Chinese 鈥渄on鈥檛 like how this [incident] seems like it has the tail wagging the dog.鈥� But he says they like even less the prospect of unforeseen repercussions from any strong international action against the North.
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