Iran nuclear fuel swap: how Turkey is complicating US aims
| Washington
The deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil with Iran over its growing uranium stockpile will face tough questions, and like an earlier agreement offered by world powers last October, it may ultimately fail.
But even if it does, the Iran nuclear fuel swap signals a new era in international relations 鈥� when the UN Security Council鈥檚 permanent members can no longer expect quiet compliance from rising middle powers like Turkey and Brazil.
鈥淭his is an early indicator of the diffusion of power away from the post-World War II players, of a transition that has already begun to take shape,鈥� says Charles Kupchan, an expert in geopolitics at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
In a statement Monday, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the US 鈥渁cknowledge[s] the efforts that have been made by Turkey and Brazil,鈥� but that 鈥渢he United States and the international community continue to have serious concerns鈥� about Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.
Calling the agreement reached 鈥渧ague鈥� on a number of key issues, the White House said that Iran still has to demonstrate through 鈥渄eeds鈥� its compliance with international obligations 鈥渙r face consequences, including sanctions.鈥�
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have been caught off guard by Brazil and Turkey鈥檚 diplomacy and by the new weight of secondary powers more generally. On Friday she predicted the Brazilian-Turkish mission to Tehran would fail and have no impact on US efforts to slap new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. But by Monday, the US was scrambling to assess the impact of the diplomatic breakthrough on momentum for sanctions.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov went further than the US. After a speech in Washington Monday, he said he would not be surprised, despite the Brazilian-Turkish initiative, if the Security Council resolution that the US has been promoting 鈥減assed for a vote in the very near future.鈥�
Mr. Ivanov said he rejected any 鈥渓ink鈥� between the push for a fourth round of sanctions on Iran and the latest diplomatic initiative by two nonpermanent members of the Security Council.
Ivanov said he could envision both paths 鈥� sanctions and Monday鈥檚 enriched-uranium deal 鈥� moving forward. And in a year鈥檚 time, the decision will be that 鈥淚ran is on the right track, and [a new Security Council] resolution will not be forever.鈥�
But in any case, he insisted, the Iran issue 鈥渨ill still be in the 鈥楤ig Six鈥� countries鈥� hands, definitely鈥� 鈥� meaning the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany, or the so-called P5+1.
Iran鈥檚 willingness to strike a deal that would move just over half of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey suggests the Iranian regime鈥檚 lingering mistrust of Western and global power.
鈥淚ran finds it much easier to strike a bargain with two powers that are not perceived as being part of the reigning order [or] doing the bidding of the US and its Western partners,鈥� says Mr. Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad often criticizes the global power structure, enshrined in the UN Security Council, that dates from the UN鈥檚 creation after World War II. He finds common ground with countries like Turkey, Brazil, and India that are aspiring to greater regional or even global power, Kupchan says.
Within hours of the announcement of the new uranium deal, Iranian officials were already clouding the picture by stating that uranium enrichment would continue on Iranian soil even if part of the stockpile were transferred to Turkey 鈥� a point the White House zeroed in on as 鈥渁 direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions.鈥�
Such pronouncements dampened prospects of a breakthrough and raised the possibility that the new initiative could end up a blip in the standoff between Iran and the international community.
But 鈥渆ven if a few weeks from now Turkey and Brazil find they have been duped,鈥� Kupchan says, the middle powers鈥� 鈥渜uest for a larger place at the diplomatic table will continue.鈥�
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