NPT talks: Why it's so hard for the UN to strengthen the treaty
| United Nations, N.Y.
When North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003, it paid no cost for its move 鈥� and then went on to declare itself a nuclear power by testing two nuclear weapons.
Closing that gap is one concrete step the US and some other countries would like to see come out of the nonproliferation discussions under way at the United Nations in New York. They want the 40-year-old NPT鈥檚 review conference, which occurs every five years, to create a set of consequences for any country that would resolve its questionable nuclear status by simply pulling out of the NPT.
But getting such a proposal approved 鈥� or just about any other concrete action taken 鈥� by the 189 signatory states of the NPT won鈥檛 be easy.
Many countries, including those in the nonaligned movement, are suspicious of proposals coming from nuclear powers that are aimed at nonnuclear states. Nuclear powers like the US, Russia, and China, on the other hand, do not like to hear international forums telling them they need to do more in the area of disarmament.
On top of that, the NPT review conferences over the years have settled into a practice of working by consensus 鈥� meaning that any one country can stop conference action, which in turn means that little concrete action usually occurs.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a massive mistake鈥� if states gauge the success of the conference based solely on whether there is a consensus final declaration, says Deepti Choubey, deputy director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. What has become the 鈥渃onsensus鈥� rule means that urgent issues facing the international nuclear regime are often either put off for consideration five years later 鈥� or weakly addressed with what she calls a "lowest common denominator document.鈥� [Editor's note: The original version of this paragraph has been changed to clarify Ms. Choubey's quote, "It's a massive mistake."]
Strengthening the NPT
But Choubey sees better prospects for measures updating and strengthening the NPT coming out of this year鈥檚 conference. She takes as a 鈥済ood sign鈥� that conference delegates agreed Wednesday to create a subsidiary group to address separately some issues, including some of the thornier ones like member withdrawal.
US officials tie this better atmosphere to President Obama鈥檚 focus on nuclear issues and in particular on steps he has taken toward nuclear disarmament.
Obama鈥檚 actions 鈥渆specially over the past six weeks have set the stage for this conference,鈥� said Ellen Tauscher, US undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, in a meeting explaining US policy to conference delegates Wednesday.
She cited the administration鈥檚 Nuclear Posture Review that places new limits on any US use of nuclear weapons, Obama鈥檚 nuclear security summit in April, and especially the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia.
鈥淚t moves us from mutually assured destruction to mutually assured stability,鈥� she said of the new START.
But others say the current international standoff with Iran over its nuclear ambitions clouds the conference鈥檚 prospects, not only because Iran alone could foil 鈥渃onsensus鈥� if it chose to, but because many nonaligned countries, including major US partners like Brazil and Turkey, are sympathetic to Iran鈥檚 case against what it calls the powers of a dead 鈥渨orld order.鈥�
So what are some of the proposals that countries and regional groups would like to see action on?
In addressing the opening session of the conference Monday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton listed some of the US goals, including automatic penalties for countries violating agreements on nuclear safeguards (such as a withdrawing country that then goes on to use for ill purposes the know-how or materials it derived from membership).
Automatic penalties
Examples she cited of possible 鈥渁utomatic penalties鈥� include suspending international technical cooperation, and developing financial and legal tools 鈥渢o disrupt illicit proliferation networks.鈥�
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, also addressing the conference, called for more nuclear weapons cuts and measures guaranteeing greater transparency in existing nuclear programs. He also called for measures to encourage the three nuclear-armed NPT nonsignatories 鈥� India, Israel, and Pakistan 鈥� to join the treaty.
Other countries are pressing for action on a 15-year-old project to create a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East, with Egypt in particular demanding an international conference toward establishing the zone. And the nonaligned movement of more than half of the NPT membership wants more measures aimed at reducing the arsenals of the world鈥檚 declared and undeclared (read Israel) nuclear powers.
Choubey agrees that the Iran standoff won鈥檛 make action any easier, but she also raises the possibility that a general interest in moving the NPT forward could end up trumping solidarity by some with Iran.
Related:
UN conference on nuclear proliferation a big test for Obama
Ahmadinejad: critics of Iran nuclear program 'illegitimate'
NPT: A nuclear weapons free Middle East? Pressure on Israel grows.
