US-Iraq relations threatened by Iraq's political quarrels
| Washington
The Obama administration is showing growing nervousness as Iraq鈥檚 postelection process of forming a new government turns out to be even more troubled and drawn-out than anticipated. After weeks of backstage prodding, US officials are now openly questioning the impact on US-Iraq relations 鈥� and in particular on plans to pull out all US combat forces this summer.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who was a close second-place finisher in March 7 balloting, has employed what appear to be ever-more desperate measures to hang on to his post. In Washington, worries are mounting that Iraq will be saddled with a tainted government.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e increasingly afraid of ending up with another Karzai-like mess,鈥� says Wayne White, a former State Department analyst on Iraq, referring to last year鈥檚 reelection of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. That election was widely deemed to have been stolen.
鈥淭here was always concern over time and the impact a drawn-out process of naming [an Iraqi] government could have,鈥� Mr. White adds. 鈥淏ut the prospect of a government tainted by illegitimacy is quickly becoming a much larger problem.鈥�
In a carefully worded admonition to the Iraqi government Tuesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton reminded Iraqi officials that 鈥渢ransparency and due process鈥� are essential elements of an election and government-forming process that attains the confidence of the public. She called on Iraq鈥檚 leaders to 鈥渟et aside their differences鈥� and 鈥渢o form quickly a government that is inclusive and represents the will of all Iraqis.鈥�
Secretary Clinton鈥檚 statement followed concerns expressed earlier this week in Baghdad by US Ambassador Christopher Hill. It was time, he said, that Iraqi politicians 鈥済ot down to business鈥� and formed a government so that Iraq can 鈥渕ove ahead.鈥�
Clinton鈥檚 communiqu茅 contained one slightly veiled message: that the 鈥渟overeign鈥� future sought by Iraq 鈥� a future free from a sizable foreign-troop presence 鈥� becomes more problematic in the aftermath of an opaque and questionable postelection political process.
Some Iraq analysts, in particular former officials from the Bush administration, believe that if Iraq remains politically fragile, the United States will have to consider extending the stay of some combat forces beyond President Obama鈥檚 August deadline for withdrawal. But that option, White says, raises other problems for the US 鈥� in particular in terms of its image with the Iraqi people and in the region.
鈥淭he US has essentially set a goal post,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut we could face a growing backlash from Iraqis and increased skepticism about our willingness to get out and make way for their full sovereignty if we start walking the deadline back.鈥�
For now, Iraq is grappling with the postelection process. On Wednesday, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, whose secular Iraqiya movement came out on top in the March polling by two seats, said he is considering calling on international organizations to form a caretaker government. Such an extreme measure might be necessary to prevent the 鈥渢heft鈥� of the elections, Mr. Allawi said.
In recent days, the Iraqi Supreme Court upheld an electoral commission鈥檚 disqualification of 52 candidates 鈥� mostly from Iraqiya, and two of whom won seats in the election 鈥� over allegations of ties to Saddam Hussein鈥檚 outlawed Baath party. Another successful Iraqiya candidate has claimed publicly that Mr. Maliki鈥檚 State of Law coalition tried to bribe him into switching allegiances.
Administration officials say they anticipated something of a drawn-out process for arriving at a new government. But the closeness of the election, coupled with Maliki鈥檚 continuing and ever-more convoluted challenges to elections he initially lost, have left hanging in the balance the central issue of what political formation comes out on top.
The continuing political turmoil means it could be months before a new government is formed.
White, now an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute in Washington, says the Obama administration will be left with 鈥渁 really wrenching choice over how it treats the government鈥� if Maliki鈥檚 鈥渆fforts to stack the deck鈥� result in him holding on to power.
That could mean renewed political instability, he says 鈥� and put the US in the uncomfortable position of 鈥渢aking the side of what is widely assumed to be an illegitimate government.鈥�
Related:
US expresses first concerns over Iraq election results
Iraq voters face long wait for new government as Maliki, others jockey for power
