With Lautenberg exit, what are GOP chances to gain Senate seat?
No sooner had Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) of New Jersey announced his retirement from the US Senate, telling constituents and reporters late Thursday that he would not run for reelection in 2014, than the political vultures began circling. Already half a dozen potential candidates from both sides of the aisle have expressed interest in running for the octogenarian senator鈥檚 seat next year.
At 89, Senator Lautenberg, who formally announces his retirement Friday in Paterson, N.J., is the oldest member of the Senate and the last World War II veteran in the chamber. His seat is one of 21 around the country that Democrats are defending next year. With 53 seats, Democrats currently maintain a narrow margin in the Senate, but the open New Jersey seat could help throw the chamber to the Republicans.
Do Republicans stand any chance of picking up the defiantly liberal senator鈥檚 seat in the heavily democratic Garden State?
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a tough road for Republicans,鈥� says Brigid Harrison,鈥� a political scientist at Montclair State University in Montclair, N.J. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 ignore decades' worth of data that indicate that Democrats tend to control the federal process in New Jersey.鈥�
Indeed, Garden State voters are among the most left-leaning in the country: They went for President Obama by a margin of nearly 18 percentage points in November.
Still, the state鈥檚 top seat is occupied by a brash Republican governor, Chris Christie, who won the hearts of many of his constituents once 鈥� and is likely to do so again later this year in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.
鈥淵ou have to recall we鈥檒l be coming off a pretty clear Christie victory in 2013,鈥� says Dr. Harrison. 鈥淐hris Christie is the embodiment of the Republican Party in this state 鈥� so 鈥� there is going to be this kind of surging Republicanism in the state of New Jersey.鈥�
Nonetheless, she says, 鈥淣o [Republican contender] is waiting in the wings so well qualified, well organized, ready to step into the role immediately to combat the fundraising prowess Democrats currently have, namely [Newark Mayor] Cory Booker.鈥�
Of course, that hasn鈥檛 stopped some Republicans 鈥� and other Democrats 鈥� from drooling over the prospect of a Senate run in 2014.
Among the potential candidates lining up for Lautenberg鈥檚 seat:
Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D).听罢丑别 clear front-runner, Mr. Booker formed a Senate campaign last month to explore a race. Opponents have said he considers himself the 鈥渉eir apparent鈥� to the seat. Indeed, when the mayor, who at 43 is less than half Lautenberg鈥檚 age, publicly expressed interest in running last month, Lautenberg said he deserved 鈥渁 spanking鈥� for openly coveting his seat before the sharp-elbowed senator had announced his retirement. Still, Booker is a favorite: A Quinnipiac poll shows Booker would have led Lautenberg 51 percent to 30 percent among likely Democratic primary voters.
Geraldo Rivera (R). The attention-grabbing conservative Fox News commentator told Twitter followers last month that he鈥檚 contemplating a run. 鈥淲ondering how folks feel about me running in N.J. under GOP banner against either Lautenberg or Booker for U.S. Senate?鈥� .
Apparently not much: About two-thirds of New Jersey voters, or 65 percent, said they would not be likely to vote for Mr. Rivera, according to a poll by Monmouth University. Some 26 percent say they would be very or somewhat likely to back the conservative commentator.
Rep. Frank Pallone (D).聽Congressman Pallone is the only person at this point expected to give Booker a run for his money. According to early reports, he in campaign funds and is quietly working behind the scenes to line up support. Commenting on Lautenberg鈥檚 retirement, 鈥淚 will say his not running changes the political landscape and I鈥檝e always been interested in the Senate, and I鈥檓 going to continue to explore running.鈥�
Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D). "I think that I will be well prepared to launch a campaign for the US Senate,鈥� Thursday after Lautenberg鈥檚 announcement. If nothing else, she鈥檒l keep Booker on his toes. 鈥淚t has nothing to do with how many Twitter followers you have and it has nothing to do with how many Facebook friends you have,鈥� Assemblywoman Oliver said, taking a jab at the Newark mayor. 鈥淢ayor Booker will have to compete for the support of the citizens of New Jersey.鈥�
State Senate minority leader Thomas Kean (R). The Union County state senator ran for US Senate in 2006 to fill the seat of Jon Corzine, and he may be a potential Republican contender in 2014. He is the son of Thomas Kean, New Jersey governor from 1982 to 1990.
Assembly Republican leader Jon Bramnick (R). Another Union County Republican, Assemblyman Bramnick was appointed to the Assembly upon Kean鈥檚 move to the state Senate and may also vie for the open US Senate seat.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D).听罢丑别 Gloucester County state senator is also contemplating a run, .
