海角大神

When Hispanic megastar Marco Rubio ascends the stage at the Republican National Convention Thursday night to introduce Mitt Romney, an issue that poses an 鈥渆xistential鈥� threat to the GOP, in the words of one party leader, will be in full view in prime time: Can the party reach Latino voters before the fast-growing bloc relegates Republicans to a perpetual minority for the next generation?

Distressed conversations about the party鈥檚 inability to win over Latino voters have been a constant, so far, at the convention. Everywhere, that is, except at the podium at the center of the Tampa Bay Times forum.

And the topic of immigration, an emotional issue that resonates deeply for Latinos, has been mentioned from the convention鈥檚 dais only twice: Once by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has enacted tough immigration measures in her state, and once by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Latino voters played an important role in fueling President Obama鈥檚 victory over Sen. John McCain in 2008, when Mr. Obama claimed

67 percent of the Latino vote to Senator McCain鈥檚 31 percent.聽Since that time, the Latino share of the national vote has grown by 25 percent, to 8.7 percent of the popular vote.

The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC/Telemundo poll, however, puts Romney at just 23 percent support among Latinos.

鈥淲here [Romney鈥檚] numbers are right now," said GOP strategist Ana Navarro, "he should be pressing the panic button."

The question for Romney is simple, said Ms. Navarro: 鈥淚f he doesn鈥檛 beat McCain鈥檚 numbers, he doesn鈥檛 win.鈥�

And 迟丑补迟鈥檚 only this election cycle. Longer-term, to describe the party鈥檚 political challenges as 鈥渄aunting鈥� is understating the problem many-fold.

Every month for the next 20 years, 50,000 Latino voters will turn 18 鈥� the equivalent of adding the entire state of Vermont to voter rolls each year. Hispanics already make up 40 percent of the population of Texas, and are pushing 30 percent in Nevada and north of 20 percent in Colorado.

Without Hispanic support, 鈥淭exas is one bad political environment away from being a presidential swing state,鈥� says Chris Jankowski, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee that will put some $3 million behind more than 100 Latino candidates for state legislatures during the 2012 election cycle.

A growing consensus

Party leaders from President George W. Bush鈥檚 political mastermind Karl Rove and former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour to former Republican National Committee chairman and current senior Romney adviser Ed Gillespie all agree: The party cannot go on without making serious inroads into the Latino community.

鈥淭he Republican Party can鈥檛 do with a dynamic, growing part of the electorate like it鈥檚 done with the African-American vote, where it found itself in a place where we get five percent we consider ourselves fortunate, 10 percent we鈥檙e thrilled, 13 or 14 percent and we鈥檙e ecstatic,鈥� Mr. Rove said.

Romney needs to dig deep into Hispanic advertising and television markets, Navarro advises, in order to begin clawing his way back.

There are signs that the Romney campaign is taking the task seriously: It unveiled two Spanish language ads during the convention, gave prime speaking roles to a trio of Hispanic Republican governors and Senator Rubio, and even Romney鈥檚 Spanish-speaking son, Craig, gave an address on the convention鈥檚 final night.

Yet some observers say they would be surprised to see Romney wade deeply into immigration specifically.

鈥淚 think he鈥檚 decided he鈥檚 going to deal with this issue as president and not as a candidate. And 迟丑补迟鈥檚 probably smart politics frankly,鈥� said former Senator and Republican National Committee Chairman Mel Martinez. Romney鈥檚 plan is 鈥渄on鈥檛 talk about immigration, but somehow find a way to connect with Hispanic voters.鈥�

During the 2012 cycle, Team Romney鈥檚 appeal to Latinos has been based on Romney鈥檚 economic program, emphasizing that the bloc ranks the economy as its top voting issue and that 10 percent of Latinos are unemployment, two percentage points above the national average.

What seems to be the best-case scenario for the Republican Party this time around is that Latinos, dispirited by Obama鈥檚 broken promise of immigration reform in his first year in office and hard-hit by the economy, simply stay home.

鈥淭his election is about economics, and these groups have been hit the hardest,鈥� House Speaker John Boehner said at a lunch hosted by 海角大神 on Monday. 鈥淭hey may not show up to vote for our candidate, but I would suggest to you that they will not show up to vote for the president.鈥�

Strategist Rove echoed those remarks earlier the same day, predicting that the 2012 cycle could see flat to declining Latino voters 鈥渇or the first time in modern history鈥� because of a lack of enthusiasm.

Pointed rhetoric on immigration

But Romney and the Republican Party face serious challenges to closing the gap with Latinos that aren鈥檛 going to be fixed this cycle. A vocal portion of the party鈥檚 base remains steadfast in supporting policies and rhetoric that Hispanics find offensive.

That was on display during the primary when Romney used immigration issues 鈥� such as criticizing Texas Gov. Rick Perry for allowing illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition 鈥� to score points with conservative Republicans like Ruby Robinson of Brunswick, Ga.

Ms. Robinson, a district Republican chairwoman and a delegate to the national convention, said she was 鈥渘ot worried鈥� about the need for the GOP to attract Latino voters in the future and lauded those like South Carolina Gov. Haley for taking tough immigration measures.

Some of the same pointed rhetoric on immigration can be found in the party鈥檚 official platform, which opposes 鈥渁ny form of amnesty鈥� for illegal immigrants, offers support for 鈥渉umane procedures to encourage illegal aliens to return home voluntarily鈥� 鈥� an allusion to Romney鈥檚 statement that illegal immigrants should 鈥渟elf-deport鈥� 鈥� and says the federal government should dismiss lawsuits against states like Arizona that have instituted harsh immigration policies.

鈥淲eaponizing鈥� the immigration issue during a primary wasn鈥檛 good for the party鈥檚 standing among Latino voters.

鈥淲e went through a really tough period of time where the primary did the opposite of what we needed to be doing,鈥� former Senator Martinez said. 鈥淚t polarized the whole issue of immigration in a terrible way.鈥�

A paralyzing bewilderment

Perhaps just as difficult to overcome is what might best be described as a paralyzing bewilderment.

As President Ronald Reagan put it: 鈥淟atinos are Republicans 鈥� they just don鈥檛 know it.鈥�

Republicans from rank-and-file delegates up to elected members of Congress profess that Hispanics 鈥渟hould鈥� be Republican voters for their conservative stances on marriage, faith, the military, and entrepreneurship.

If they 鈥渟hould鈥� be Republicans, so the theory goes, then the onus is only on changing the GOP鈥檚 messaging 鈥� not its policies or its candidates.

None other than vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan took issue with similar thinking in his speech Wednesday night.

鈥淧resident Obama was asked not long ago to reflect on any mistakes he might have made,鈥� the Wisconsin congressman said. 鈥淗e said, well, 鈥業 haven鈥檛 communicated enough.鈥櫬燞e said his job is to 鈥榯ell a story to the American people鈥� 鈥� as if 迟丑补迟鈥檚 the whole problem here? He needs to talk more, and we need to be better listeners?鈥�

In the meantime, unless this wished-for ideological lightning strikes millions of Latinos, the party is going to need both the Latino stars among its current elected officials and efforts like those lead by Mr. Jankowski of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC).

For all the GOP鈥檚 national Latino problems, the party has an all-star cast of state leaders. Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno join Martinez as the nation鈥檚 only Hispanic governors. In the Senate, Florida鈥檚 Rubio likely will soon be joined by Texas candidate Ted Cruz.

Having high-profile Latinos running for major office may help introduce those who have historically voted Democratic to the GOP.

鈥淲hen we see high-profile elected officials who are Hispanic, it makes people stop and think and then educate themselves,鈥� said Isaac Castro, an immigrant from Mexico and the mayor of Hamlin, Tex.

Developing the next stars

But praying for successive generations of Latino all-stars even as the party remains at odds with the Latino electorate at large isn鈥檛 a promising political strategy. That鈥檚 where Jankowski comes in.

鈥淲e just have to go and elect more [Hispanic Republicans] and get them on that escalator to higher office,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know who is [going to be] the next Marco Rubio or Brian Sandoval, we just know the more you elect of Hispanic descent, the better chance you have of producing an amazing leader.鈥�

Currently, about a quarter of some 250 state legislators of Hispanic descent are Republicans. After this cycle, Jankowski aims to have doubled that number. The Future Majority Project, as the drive is known, supports candidates whose and positions on immigration vary widely. The organization is 鈥渁gnostic鈥� on immigration policy, Jankowski said.

While the RSLC only targets areas that are better than 45 percent Republican, they will plant the flag in many places that have yet to see Hispanic Republican contenders. And 迟丑补迟鈥檚 a step toward the inclusive campaigning strategy that Governor Martinez of New Mexico believes is vital to winning bigger prizes.

鈥淚t鈥檚 important that we go into every corner, whether it鈥檚 your state or the country,鈥� Martinez said. 鈥淎 lot of Republicans will consider a part of their state and say 鈥業鈥檒l never win that so I won鈥檛 go there.鈥� You have to鈥� go beyond where Republicans are comfortable.

Without such outreach, Republicans fear they鈥檒l be in for electoral beatings as sound as some they鈥檝e administered to Democrats who ignored the South.

鈥淒emocrats ignored the South and lost the South. After 40 years of abandoning the South, the South turned red,鈥� said Chris Daniel, a convention delegate and Harris County District Clerk in Houston, Tex.

But will Mitt Romney and the GOP change course before they lose their demographic 鈥渟outh鈥�?

Asked to evaluate Romney鈥檚 outreach to Latinos thus far, Barbour, the former Mississippi governor and leading party strategist, smiled wryly.

鈥淗e鈥檚 got two months,鈥� Barbour said.

The聽party? Jankowski thinks it鈥檚 a bit longer: six to eight years. But the ramifications of failure are far worse. 聽

鈥淚f we don鈥檛 perform better, we will lose,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd never win.鈥�