Obama scores on immigration, but it鈥檚 still 'the economy, stupid'
Barack Obama鈥檚 surprise announcement on immigration this week 鈥� in essence, a DREAM Act end-run around Congress 鈥� had immediate political benefits for an incumbent president fighting to win a second term.
It knocked presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney off-message, forcing him to answer for his own very hard line on immigration during the GOP primary fight (鈥渟elf-deportation鈥�) and pretty much had him muttering his agreement with Obama about treating with mercy as well as justice young immigrants brought to this country by their parents.
It also went a long way toward solidifying Obama鈥檚 clear advantage among Hispanic voters 鈥� the country鈥檚 most rapidly-growing demographic 鈥� a vulnerability in their party clearly recognized by such prominent Republicans as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Haley Barbour.
鈥淚f you are a worker who has been here for any length of time, we have to have a path, not to citizenship, but a secure knowledge that they will be able to work,鈥� former Mississippi Gov. Barbour said Friday at a Monitor-hosted breakfast for reporters.
Could you pass a US citizenship test?
But immigration doesn鈥檛 overshadow the main question Obama faces: 鈥淎re you better off now than you were four years ago,鈥� as Ronald Reagan put it in ousting Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Here, evidence as to how American voters are answering that question illustrates Obama鈥檚 challenge. In his 鈥淢orning Fix鈥� column, the Washington Post鈥檚 Chris Cillizza ticks off the stark numbers:
鈥淢edian family net worth dropped roughly 40 percent between 2007 and 2010鈥�. Large majorities of Americans聽believe that the country is headed off on the wrong direction鈥�. More than three in four says now is a bad time to get a good job.鈥�
The headline on a Gallup analysis put things clearly: 鈥淣ational Mood a Drag on Obama's Re-Election Prospects.鈥�
鈥淥bama's approval rating is below 50 percent, Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country is barely above 20 percent, and the economy remains a dominant concern,鈥� Gallup鈥檚 Lydia Saad wrote.
Several important Democratic analysts have looked at the evidence as to how Americans feel and what they believe, and they鈥檝e concluded that the Obama campaign needs to reframe its message.
Carville, together with pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Erica Seifert, warn that the party is losing middle-class voters 鈥� holding on only because Romney is vulnerable as well.
鈥淭hese voters are not convinced that we are headed in the right direction,鈥� the three write in a memo widely reported this week. 鈥淭hey are living in a new economy 鈥� and there is no conceivable recovery in the year ahead that will change the view of the new state of the country.鈥�
鈥淭hey actually have a very realistic view of the long road back and the struggles of the middle class 鈥� and the current narrative about progress just misses the opportunity to connect and point forward,鈥� Carville, Greenberg, and Seifert write. 鈥淲hile we hear some optimism, this is framed mostly by the sense that this has to be rock bottom.鈥�
In other words, they say, Democrats must "move to a new narrative, one that contextualizes the recovery but, more importantly, focuses on what we will do to make a better future for the middle class.鈥� Don鈥檛 focus exclusively on progress being made (however halting) or the extent to which the country鈥檚 economic doldrums can be blamed on the Bush administration and congressional Republicans.
鈥淲e will face an impossible headwind in November if we do not move to a new narrative, one that contextualizes the recovery but, more importantly, focuses on what we will do to make a better future for the middle class.鈥�
So Ronald Reagan鈥檚 potent question about being 鈥渂etter off now鈥� is certainly relevant. So is Democratic operative James Carville鈥檚 admonition in 1992, when Bill Clinton ousted George H. W. Bush: 鈥淚t鈥檚 the economy, stupid.鈥�
