海角大神

Thursday night's GOP presidential debate in South Carolina sees a candidate line-up whittled down to just four contestants. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is history, having dropped out early in the day and thrown his unqualified support to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

But attention will be focused on the two front-runners with the most to win 鈥� or lose 鈥� in a campaign that has become increasingly divisive as it accelerates through major states toward Super Tuesday and beyond.

Both Mr. Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney have new personal issues to deal with.

For Mr. Romney, it鈥檚 the impression that he belongs to what Occupy Wall Streeters call the 鈥�1 percent鈥� 鈥� wealthy beyond the dreams of most Americans and clueless about what those Americans' lives are like.

He鈥檚 acknowledged that his tax rate likely is a relatively low 15 percent, some of his investments are parked in a Cayman Islands tax haven, and he seems to think that earning nearly $400,000 a year just in speaking fees is 鈥渘ot very much.鈥� Under pressure from supporters like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (not to mention Democrats), Romney now seems likely to make public his tax returns.

For Gingrich, it鈥檚 renewed questions of character 鈥� specifically, assertions by his second wife in interviews (one of which is to be aired just after Thursday night's debate) that the former speaker asked for an 鈥渙pen marriage鈥� in order to continue an affair with the congressional staffer who later became his third wife.

Even though it might be a 鈥渉e said, she said鈥� story, any reminder of Gingrich鈥檚 acknowledged infidelities and multiple marriages can鈥檛 be helpful in a state and party where evangelical 海角大神s are prominent and most likely primary voters describe themselves as socially conservative.

Gingrich backers hope that contrition and redemption dominate that story line.

"Newt is not perfect but who among us is?" Perry said at his withdrawal announcement Thursday morning. "There is forgiveness for those who seek God."

Meanwhile, establishment Republicans are firing back at Gingrich鈥檚 blasts at Romney.

His criticisms of the former governor regarding his years in the private sector reorganizing businesses are 鈥渄angerous,鈥� amounting to 鈥渢alking points straight out of Barack Obama's campaign playbook,鈥� warns Sen. John McCain, who headed the Republican ticket in 2008 and who recently endorsed Romney.

Former New Hampshire governor and White House chief of staff John H. Sununu warns of an 鈥淥ctober surprise鈥� if Gingrich is nominated and then faces new revelations about the ethics committee probe that led to the end of his House speakership.

At first glance, Gingrich would seem to have the momentum in his fierce relationship with Romney.

Romney鈥檚 18-point lead over Gingrich in South Carolina from earlier this month has dropped to 10 percent, according to a new聽CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll 鈥� down four points for Romney, up five points for Gingrich.

鈥淕ingrich鈥檚 standing-O debate performance on Monday night in Myrtle Beach, hailed by national and state activists as a pitch-perfect defense of conservatism, may have moved the needle even further,鈥� writes Adam Sorensen at Time鈥檚 鈥淪wampland鈥� political site. 鈥淎 flash poll taken Tuesday night by聽Rasmussen聽found Gingrich pulling within three points of Romney.鈥�

鈥淎mong Republican primary voters nationwide, 34 percent think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29 percent) feel Gingrich would do the better job,鈥� Rasmussen reported Wednesday. 鈥淲hen it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43 percent think he would do a better job versus 18 percent who say the same of Romney.鈥�

The Real Clear Politics average of most recent polls has Romney ahead by just 1.2 percentage points in South Carolina. Two other polls 鈥� American Research Group and InsiderAdvantage 鈥� put Gingrich ahead by a nose.

But apparent momentum in recent polling snapshots isn鈥檛 everything, some experts say.

Political scientists Lynn Vavreck, of UCLA, and John Sides, of George Washington University, note that Romney鈥檚 position among the Republican electorate 鈥� generally, a less-than-overwhelming 25 percent or so 鈥� actually is good within a crowded field of what until very recently had been seven candidates.

More Republicans pick Romney as their second choice than any other candidate. And when voters are asked to choose between just two GOP candidates 鈥� Romney and Gingrich 鈥� a solid majority (66 to 34 percent) pick Romney, according to the YouGov research organization that professors Vavreck and Sides write for.

It鈥檚 always possible that one of the remaining candidates could have an 鈥淥ops!鈥� moment in Thursday night鈥檚 debate. Rick Perry鈥檚 was probably the beginning of the end for him.

Absent that, the contest between Romney and Gingrich is likely to remain very, very close when South Carolinians go to the polls this Saturday.

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Watch this video on key issues on the minds of social conservative or values voters in South Carolina.