Mitt Romney's 'electability' against Obama key to Iowa caucuses
As the New Year鈥檚 weekend revelry slides toward the more serious Iowa caucuses next Tuesday, Mitt Romney鈥檚 steady-as-she-goes campaign increasingly centers on the bottom line in presidential nominating politics for challengers: electability.
He鈥檚 leaving it to independent PACs to rhetorically bludgeon his GOP rivals, campaigning with such prominent and respected supporters as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. And though there are months and many primary elections to go, Romney already is running against Barack Obama.
That makes sense, given what could be the most important element in this past week鈥檚 CNN poll in Iowa.
Ron Paul leads Romney on most issues. But asked who had the best chance of beating Obama, Iowa Republicans made it clear: At 41 percent, Romney nearly triples Paul鈥檚 14 percent. Asked who鈥檚 more 鈥減residential,鈥� Romney leads Paul by 6 points (25-19).
Other polls indicate Romney鈥檚 strength versus Obama as well.
As noted by Real Clear Politics, Romney is the only GOP hopeful who bests Obama in any of the recent polls (Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling). And on the Real Clear Politics polling average, Romney is much closer to Obama (1.6 percentage points), than Newt Gingrich (8.9 points), Rick Perry (12.5 points), Michele Bachmann (15 points), Rep. Paul (7.7 points), or Jon Huntsman (8.6 points).
As Obama鈥檚 favorability ratings creep upward, the relative strength of the challenger as measured by the somewhat ineffable 鈥渆lectability鈥� becomes more important 鈥� hence Romney鈥檚 directly engaging Obama.
鈥淚 will be talking about his record and his failure, and he will be trying to make this a personal attack, which I think will sour the American people,鈥� Romney told the Boston Herald. 鈥淥ne of the reasons people supported candidate Obama was his soaring vision for a more positive America, and he has now succumbed to the more base form of politics which is attacking individuals, dividing Americans and poisoning the spirit of leadership.鈥�
If that sounds like Romney is offering his own version of 鈥渉ope and change,鈥� he is.
And while many conservatives see Gingrich as potentially the best debater to face the President once the nominating dust settles, the former House Speaker is fading fast, and many of those once drawn to him are turning to Romney.
鈥淗e鈥檚 one of my top two 鈥� him and Newt,鈥� retired school principal Pat Sheets told the Washington Post at a coffee shop in Muscatine, Iowa. 鈥淲e aren鈥檛 sure if Newt can win鈥�. I think Romney is the person most likely to beat Obama 鈥� and, in my opinion, that鈥檚 the top objective. Newt has a lot of baggage. I like what Newt says, but I don鈥檛 want to waste my vote on somebody who can鈥檛 actually win.鈥�
鈥淲e need to be able to nominate a candidate who we can not only be proud of, but will be able to sustain the kind of attacks that the Obama machine is going to throw at our candidate 鈥� somebody who鈥檚 tested, somebody who is not prone to gaffes and somebody who we can be proud of to win over independent voters and has a track record of doing it,鈥� Illinois state Rep. Aaron Schock said in introducing Romney in Muscatine. 鈥淎nd that, in our race, is Governor Romney.鈥�
鈥淭he only reason I鈥檓 supporting Romney is because he can win the election,鈥� mobile home park owner Tim McCleary told the Post. 鈥淭he sad reality is I鈥檓 a fairly conservative person, but you have to send them out east.鈥�
Still, there are conservative holdouts continuing to insist that Romney is not electable.
At , John Hawkins details 鈥�7 Reasons Why Mitt Romney鈥檚 Electability Is A Myth.鈥�
Among them: He鈥檚 running weak in southern states; his record running Bain Capital; his Mormon religion; 鈥渉e鈥檚 a proven political loser鈥� having lost a US Senate race to Ted Kennedy and left office as Massachusetts governor with very low ratings.
鈥淢itt Romney was a moderate governor in Massachusetts with an unimpressive record of governance,鈥� Hawkins writes. 鈥淗e left office with an approval rating in the thirties and his signature achievement, Romneycare, was a Hurricane Katrina style disaster for the state. Since that鈥檚 the case, it鈥檚 fair to ask what a Republican who鈥檚 not conservative and can鈥檛 even carry his own state brings to the table for GOP primary voters.鈥�
So far, however, that seems to be a minority view. The evidence on the ground in Iowa and elsewhere shows Romney鈥檚 campaign gaining strength as the nominating race finally enters the period when Republicans start choosing their champion to run against Obama.
