Why Mitt Romney isn't balking at strong voter support for Ron Paul
Mitt Romney may have just as much reason as Ron Paul to be happy about the Texas congressman鈥檚 strong support in Iowa and New Hampshire.
With the two candidates in the top two slots in both states, it鈥檚 looking less likely that another candidate can coalesce enough support to challenge Mr. Romney. And there鈥檚 little doubt about who would win in a Romney-Paul matchup, political science experts say.
鈥淩omney would be thrilled if Ron Paul emerged as his major opposition.... Paul has a sturdy floor of backers, but also a low ceiling, beyond which he cannot expand,鈥� writes Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, in an e-mail to the Monitor. 鈥淪ome Romney backers have gone as far to say privately [to me and others] that a Paul win in Iowa is almost as good as a Romney victory.鈥�
Iowa鈥檚 fractured conservative vote 鈥� most recently gravitating toward Rick Santorum 鈥� is also a boon for Romney. Add that to how Mr. Paul draws voters who aren鈥檛 keen on mainstream Republican positions and candidates. So, with about 25 percent of the vote, 鈥淩omney ... could end up finishing second or maybe even winning鈥� in Iowa, says John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.
If Mr. Santorum somehow pulls off an Iowa win, he would get a surge of attention. But he would then have to go through a vetting process that Romney has already been through, and Santorum has less money and organization than Romney, Professor Geer notes.
In four recent polls of likely caucusgoers in Iowa, Romney and Paul have been in first or second place, averaging about 21 or 22 percent support, according to the RealClearPolitics tracker.
Romney is currently smiling his way through a three-day bus tour in Iowa, courting votes but trying to avoid building up expectations too high. He鈥檚 zipping back to New Hampshire Friday evening for a spaghetti dinner at the Merrimack VFW.
A strong win in the Granite State is widely viewed as essential for the Romney campaign.
Romney has 44 percent support among likely primary voters in New Hampshire, followed by Paul at 17 percent, Newt Gingrich at 16 percent, and Jon Huntsman Jr. at 9 percent, according to the most recent poll, by CNN/Time.
鈥淩on Paul and Mitt Romney are drawing from two different parts of the Republican electorate鈥� in New Hampshire, says Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
While Romney draws from the mainstream, Paul draws from the outskirts 鈥� libertarians, moderate liberal Republicans, and independents. If Paul has a surge because of Iowa, Professor Scala adds, 鈥渢he one person that hurts is Huntsman ... who is drawing from a similar pool [as Paul鈥檚].鈥�
Mr. Huntsman took on both opponents earlier this week during his 129th campaign event in the state, in Pelham, N.H. The two represent a choice of 鈥渨hat the establishment is telling you to do ... the status quo candidate [Romney],鈥� or Paul, who鈥檚 鈥渘ot electable at the end of the day,鈥� Huntsman said, according to SalemPatch.com.
The conservative Union Leader newspaper in Manchester, N.H., editorialized Thursday that Paul 鈥渋s a dangerous man,鈥� criticizing his views on Iran鈥檚 apparent pursuit of nuclear weapons, among other things. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about time New Hampshire voters showed him the door,鈥� publisher Joseph McQuaid wrote.
With Paul taking hits from so many others, Romney has been able to remain magnanimous. Asked by CNN鈥檚 Wolf Blitzer if he would vote for Paul if he were the GOP nominee, Romney didn鈥檛 hesitate to say yes: Despite his disagreements with Paul, he would be better than Barack Obama, Romney said. Mr. Gingrich and Huntsman both avoided a direct answer to similar questions this week.
鈥淩omney wants to look presidential ... and for the most part, he鈥檚 tried to stay above [the fray],鈥� Geer says. 鈥淎t the end of the day, you are still going to want ... the backing of [some Paul supporters] ... [so] you don鈥檛 want to leave any bad feelings,鈥� he adds.
Paul鈥檚 backers are fervent, but his level of support has remained pretty steady rather than attracting many new converts, says Samuel Clovis, a professor at Morningside College in Sioux City, Iowa, and host of a conservative radio talk show. Professor Clovis recently criticized Paul鈥檚 foreign-policy stances and endorsed Santorum, but he credits Romney for high-quality interactions with voters in Iowa.
Some pundits, however, say the strength of Paul鈥檚 support as a type of protest vote may be underestimated. There鈥檚 still speculation that Paul might eventually mount an independent run for the presidency.
In an opinion piece in Thursday鈥檚 Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger writes: 鈥�... the Paul vote won鈥檛 die.... The Romney campaign may assume that this vote must land by default in their man鈥檚 lap ... [but] this is one of the most volatile Republican electorates in a long while.... [If Romney] doesn鈥檛 reach out pretty soon to the Paul-[Rick] Perry-[Michele] Bachmann Republican protest voters, he may never get them.鈥�
